IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v173y2023ics0301421522005353.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Drivers of electricity GHG emissions and the role of natural gas in mexican energy transition

Author

Listed:
  • Santillán Vera, Mónica
  • García Manrique, Lilia
  • Rodríguez Peña, Isabel
  • De La Vega Navarro, Angel

Abstract

In the last three decades, the high growth of natural gas as an energy source for Mexican electricity production was the most significant change in the sector. Natural gas went from being the source of 7% of electricity in 1990 to 62.3% in 2020. A co-dependence of electricity and natural gas systems has been established and is increasing. Is this fact consistent with the objective of decarbonizing the electricity sector? We study this question through a decomposition analysis of electricity Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions in Mexico between 1990 and 2015. We use a Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) to quantify the changes of electricity GHG emissions related to activity, carbon coefficient, structure, and energy intensity effects. Activity effect was the most significant driver of GHG emissions growth, structure and energy intensity effects contributed to limiting that growth, while the carbon coefficient effect had a small contribution to mitigating GHG emissions. From these results, we raise concerns about the role of natural gas, which crowd-out renewable energy and could lead to carbon lock-in and stranded assets in the long term. In addition, Mexico's energy system relies heavily on U.S. natural gas. In light of these concerns, we concluded that an energy policy aiming towards a low-carbon energy system should consider the composition “natural gas + renewable energies + energy efficiency”.

Suggested Citation

  • Santillán Vera, Mónica & García Manrique, Lilia & Rodríguez Peña, Isabel & De La Vega Navarro, Angel, 2023. "Drivers of electricity GHG emissions and the role of natural gas in mexican energy transition," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:173:y:2023:i:c:s0301421522005353
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113316
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421522005353
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113316?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ang, B. W., 2004. "Decomposition analysis for policymaking in energy:: which is the preferred method?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1131-1139, June.
    2. Lechtenböhmer, Stefan & Nilsson, Lars J. & Åhman, Max & Schneider, Clemens, 2016. "Decarbonising the energy intensive basic materials industry through electrification – Implications for future EU electricity demand," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(P3), pages 1623-1631.
    3. Goh, Tian & Ang, B.W. & Xu, X.Y., 2018. "Quantifying drivers of CO2 emissions from electricity generation – Current practices and future extensions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C), pages 1191-1204.
    4. Jano-Ito, Marco A. & Crawford-Brown, Douglas, 2016. "Socio-technical analysis of the electricity sector of Mexico: Its historical evolution and implications for a transition towards low-carbon development," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 567-590.
    5. Bellocchi, Sara & Manno, Michele & Noussan, Michel & Prina, Matteo Giacomo & Vellini, Michela, 2020. "Electrification of transport and residential heating sectors in support of renewable penetration: Scenarios for the Italian energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    6. Ang, B.W & Zhang, F.Q & Choi, Ki-Hong, 1998. "Factorizing changes in energy and environmental indicators through decomposition," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 489-495.
    7. Roberto F. Aguilera & Roberto Aguilera, 2020. "Revisiting the role of natural gas as a transition fuel," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 33(1), pages 73-80, July.
    8. Gilbert, Alexander Q. & Sovacool, Benjamin K., 2017. "Benchmarking natural gas and coal-fired electricity generation in the United States," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 622-628.
    9. Haein Kim & Minsang Kim & Hyunggeun Kim & Sangkyu Park, 2020. "Decomposition Analysis of CO 2 Emission from Electricity Generation: Comparison of OECD Countries before and after the Financial Crisis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-16, July.
    10. Gürsan, C. & de Gooyert, V., 2021. "The systemic impact of a transition fuel: Does natural gas help or hinder the energy transition?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    11. Unruh, Gregory C., 2000. "Understanding carbon lock-in," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(12), pages 817-830, October.
    12. McGlade, Christophe & Pye, Steve & Ekins, Paul & Bradshaw, Michael & Watson, Jim, 2018. "The future role of natural gas in the UK: A bridge to nowhere?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 454-465.
    13. Sugiyama, Masahiro, 2012. "Climate change mitigation and electrification," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 464-468.
    14. Oskar LECUYER & Esperanza GONZALEZ-MAHECHA & Michelle HALLACK & Morgan BAZILIAN & Adrien VOGT-SCHILB, 2019. "Committed emissions and the risk of stranded assets from power plants in Latin America and the Caribbean," Working Paper 7d9ac525-0354-46ef-aa0b-f, Agence française de développement.
    15. Huntington, Hillard G. & Bhargava, Abha & Daniels, David & Weyant, John P. & Avraam, Charalampos & Bistline, John & Edmonds, James A. & Giarola, Sara & Hawkes, Adam & Hansen, Matthew & Johnston, Peter, 2020. "Key findings from the core North American scenarios in the EMF34 intermodel comparison," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    16. Sarmiento, Luis & Molar-Cruz, Anahi & Avraam, Charalampos & Brown, Maxwell & Rosellón, Juan & Siddiqui, Sauleh & Rodríguez, Baltazar Solano, 2021. "Mexico and U.S. power systems under variations in natural gas prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    17. Ang, B.W. & Liu, Na, 2007. "Energy decomposition analysis: IEA model versus other methods," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1426-1432, March.
    18. Xu, X.Y. & Ang, B.W., 2013. "Index decomposition analysis applied to CO2 emission studies," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 313-329.
    19. Paul L. Joskow, 2013. "Natural Gas: From Shortages to Abundance in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 338-343, May.
    20. Michael Levi, 2013. "Climate consequences of natural gas as a bridge fuel," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(3), pages 609-623, June.
    21. Sheinbaum, Claudia & Ozawa, Leticia & Castillo, Daniel, 2010. "Using logarithmic mean Divisia index to analyze changes in energy use and carbon dioxide emissions in Mexico's iron and steel industry," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1337-1344, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Miguel A. Morales Mora & Andrea Marín Rovira & Vicente A. Soriano Ramirez & Patricia López Rivera & Omar Guillen Solis & Vincent Pozos Castillo & Gonzalo AngelesOrdoñez & Alejandro Castillo Antonio & , 2024. "An integrated analysis of the Mexican electrical system’s metabolic pattern and industry sector in the energy transition," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(9), pages 24313-24338, September.
    2. Cao, Jiaojiao & Wu, Jiansong & Zhao, Yimeng & Cai, Jitao & Bai, Yiping & Pang, Lei, 2023. "Suppression effects of energy-absorbing materials on natural gas explosion in utility tunnels," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 281(C).
    3. Tatyana Semenova & Juan Yair Martínez Santoyo, 2023. "Economic Strategy for Developing the Oil Industry in Mexico by Incorporating Environmental Factors," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-38, December.
    4. Samuel Mathias do Amaral Junior & Janine Carvalho Padilha & Leonardo Arrieche, 2024. "Brazil’s New Gas Law: Analysis, Implications, and Remuneration of Gas Processing Plants with Non-Discriminatory Access to Customers," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(1), pages 559-569, January.
    5. Huang, Chenchen & Lin, Boqiang, 2023. "Promoting decarbonization in the power sector: How important is digital transformation?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    6. Renzo Seminario-Córdova & Raúl Rojas-Ortega, 2023. "Renewable Energy Sources and Energy Production: A Bibliometric Analysis of the Last Five Years," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-22, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Monica Santillan Vera & Lilia Garcia Manrique & Isabel Rodriguez Pena & Angel de la Vega Navarro, 2021. "Drivers of Electricity GHG Emissions and the Role of Natural Gas in Mexican Energy Transition," Working Paper Series 1021, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    2. Tan, Xianchun & Dong, Lele & Chen, Dexue & Gu, Baihe & Zeng, Yuan, 2016. "China’s regional CO2 emissions reduction potential: A study of Chongqing city," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1345-1354.
    3. Wang, Miao & Feng, Chao, 2017. "Decomposition of energy-related CO2 emissions in China: An empirical analysis based on provincial panel data of three sectors," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 772-787.
    4. Wang, Qunwei & Wang, Yizhong & Zhou, P. & Wei, Hongye, 2017. "Whole process decomposition of energy-related SO2 in Jiangsu Province, China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 679-687.
    5. Löschel, Andreas & Pothen, Frank & Schymura, Michael, 2015. "Peeling the onion: Analyzing aggregate, national and sectoral energy intensity in the European Union," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(S1), pages 63-75.
    6. de Freitas, Luciano Charlita & Kaneko, Shinji, 2011. "Decomposition of CO2 emissions change from energy consumption in Brazil: Challenges and policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1495-1504, March.
    7. Jialing Zou & Weidong Liu & Zhipeng Tang, 2017. "Analysis of Factors Contributing to Changes in Energy Consumption in Tangshan City between 2007 and 2012," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-14, March.
    8. Xin Yang & Chunbo Ma & Anlu Zhang, 2016. "Decomposition of Net CO 2 Emission in the Wuhan Metropolitan Area of Central China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(8), pages 1-13, August.
    9. Zbigniew Gołaś, 2022. "Changes in Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions of the Agricultural Sector in Poland from 2000 to 2019," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-18, June.
    10. Harmsen, Robert & Crijns-Graus, Wina, 2021. "Unhiding the role of CHP in power & heat sector decomposition analyses," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    11. Yao Qian & Lang Sun & Quanyi Qiu & Lina Tang & Xiaoqi Shang & Chengxiu Lu, 2020. "Analysis of CO 2 Drivers and Emissions Forecast in a Typical Industry-Oriented County: Changxing County, China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-21, March.
    12. Kemfert, Claudia & Präger, Fabian & Braunger, Isabell & Hoffart, Franziska M. & Brauers, Hanna, 2022. "The expansion of natural gas infrastructure puts energy transitions at risk," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 7, pages 582-587.
    13. Edyta Sidorczuk-Pietraszko, 2020. "Spatial Differences in Carbon Intensity in Polish Households," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-21, June.
    14. Branger, Frédéric & Quirion, Philippe, 2015. "Reaping the carbon rent: Abatement and overallocation profits in the European cement industry, insights from an LMDI decomposition analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 189-205.
    15. Goh, Tian & Ang, B.W. & Xu, X.Y., 2018. "Quantifying drivers of CO2 emissions from electricity generation – Current practices and future extensions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C), pages 1191-1204.
    16. Román-Collado, Rocío & Cansino, José M. & Botia, Camilo, 2018. "How far is Colombia from decoupling? Two-level decomposition analysis of energy consumption changes," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 687-700.
    17. O’ Mahony, Tadhg & Zhou, Peng & Sweeney, John, 2012. "The driving forces of change in energy-related CO2 emissions in Ireland: A multi-sectoral decomposition from 1990 to 2007," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 256-267.
    18. Xu, Jin-Hua & Fleiter, Tobias & Eichhammer, Wolfgang & Fan, Ying, 2012. "Energy consumption and CO2 emissions in China's cement industry: A perspective from LMDI decomposition analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 821-832.
    19. Liang Chen & Zhifeng Yang & Bin Chen, 2013. "Decomposition Analysis of Energy-Related Industrial CO 2 Emissions in China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 6(5), pages 1-19, April.
    20. Ren, Shenggang & Fu, Xiang & Chen, XiaoHong, 2012. "Regional variation of energy-related industrial CO2 emissions mitigation in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 1134-1145.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:173:y:2023:i:c:s0301421522005353. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.