IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/vrs/seejeb/v12y2017i1p50-56n5.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Is Real Depreciation or More Government Deficit Expansionary? The Case of Slovenia

Author

Listed:
  • Hsing Yu

    (Professor of Economics, Department of Management & Business Administration, College of Business, Southeastern Louisiana University)

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to examine the impacts of the real exchange rate, the government deficit and other relevant variables on aggregate output in Slovenia. Few of the previous studies have applied the AD/AS model to examine the impacts of major macroeconomic variables on aggregate output. This paper makes contributions to the literature by applying a rigorous model to examine how real GDP is affected by the real exchange rate, fiscal policy and other related variables. The exponential GARCH model is applied in empirical work. The paper finds that real depreciation of the Euro may affect Slovenia’s aggregate output positively or negatively and that more central government deficit as a percent of GDP does not affect aggregate output. In addition, Slovenia’s aggregate output is positively associated with the real stock price, the real oil price and real total labor cost or wage and is negatively influenced by the real lending rate and the expected inflation rate. Recent real depreciation of the Euro would help Slovenia’s aggregate output whereas expansionary fiscal policy would not be effective in stimulating the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Hsing Yu, 2017. "Is Real Depreciation or More Government Deficit Expansionary? The Case of Slovenia," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 12(1), pages 50-56, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:seejeb:v:12:y:2017:i:1:p:50-56:n:5
    DOI: 10.1515/jeb-2017-0005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1515/jeb-2017-0005
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1515/jeb-2017-0005?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hamilton, James D., 1996. "This is what happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 215-220, October.
    2. Mills, Terence C. & Pentecost, Eric J., 2001. "The real exchange rate and the output response in four EU accession countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 418-430, December.
    3. Barro, Robert J, 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1095-1117, Nov.-Dec..
    4. Lutz Kilian, 2008. "The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 871-909, December.
    5. Volha Audzei & Frantisek Brazdik, 2015. "Exchange Rate Dynamics and its Effect on Macroeconomic Volatility in Selected CEE Countries," Working Papers 2015/07, Czech National Bank.
    6. Katharine G. Abraham & John C. Haltiwanger, 1995. "Real Wages and the Business Cycle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(3), pages 1215-1264, September.
    7. Hoelscher, Gregory, 1986. "New Evidence on Deficits and Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(1), pages 1-17, February.
    8. Feldstein, Martin, 1982. "Government deficits and aggregate demand," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 1-20.
    9. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    10. International Monetary Fund, 2016. "Algeria: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report," IMF Staff Country Reports 2016/127, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Richard J. Cebula, 2014. "Impact of Federal Government Budget Deficits on the Longer Term Real Interest Rate in the U.S.: Evidence Using Annual and Quarterly Data, 1960-2013," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot GmbH, Berlin, vol. 60(1), pages 23-40.
    12. Christos Papazoglou & Eric J. Pentecost (ed.), 2001. "Exchange Rate Policies, Prices and Supply-Side Response," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-0-230-55453-5, October.
    13. Barro, Robert J, 1989. "The Ricardian Approach to Budget Deficits," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 37-54, Spring.
    14. International Monetary Fund, 2016. "Republic of Slovenia: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report for the Republic of Slovenia," IMF Staff Country Reports 2016/121, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Richard Cebula & Fiorentina Angjellari-Dajci & Maggie Foley, 2014. "An exploratory empirical inquiry into the impact of federal budget deficits on the ex post real interest rate yield on ten year Treasury notes over the last half century," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 38(4), pages 712-720, October.
    16. Paresh Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2009. "The effect of inflation and real wages on productivity: new evidence from a panel of G7 countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(10), pages 1285-1291.
    17. Duygu Yolcu Karadam & Erdal Özmen, 2016. "Real Exchange Rates and Growth," ERC Working Papers 1609, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Sep 2016.
    18. International Monetary Fund, 2016. "Peru: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report," IMF Staff Country Reports 2016/234, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Josheski Dushko & Eftimoski Dimitar, 2016. "Application of Is-Mp-Ia Model and Taylor Rule to Cesee Economies," Economics and Culture, Sciendo, vol. 13(1), pages 5-13, June.
    20. International Monetary Fund, 2016. "Paraguay: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report," IMF Staff Country Reports 2016/116, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Ali Kutan, 2008. "Are devaluations contractionary in emerging economies of Eastern Europe?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 61-74, March.
    22. International Monetary Fund, 2016. "Belgium: 2016 Article IV Consultation--Press Release; Staff Report," IMF Staff Country Reports 2016/077, International Monetary Fund.
    23. David H. Romer, 2000. "Keynesian Macroeconomics without the LM Curve," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 149-169, Spring.
    24. Cebula, Richard, 2014. "An Empirical Investigation into the Impact of U.S. Federal Government Budget Deficits on the Real Interest Rate Yield on Intermediate-term Treasury Debt Issues, 1972-2012," MPRA Paper 55269, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    25. Richard Cebula & Pablo Cuellar, 2010. "Recent evidence on the impact of government budget deficits on the ex ante real interest rate yield on Moody’s Baa-rated corporate bonds," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 34(3), pages 301-307, July.
    26. Jean-Louis Combes & Alexandru Minea & Lavinia Mustea & Thierry Yogo, 2016. "Output effects of fiscal stimulus in Central and Eastern European countries," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(1), pages 108-127, January.
    27. Tomislav GLOBAN & Marina MATOŠEC, 2016. "Public Debt-to-GDP Ratio in New EU Member States: Cut the Numerator or Increase the Denominator?," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 57-72, September.
    28. McMillin, W. Douglas, 1986. "Federal deficits and short-term interest rates," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 403-422.
    29. Papaioannou, Sotiris, 2016. "Public spending, monetary policy and growth: Evidence from EU countries," MPRA Paper 70331, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    30. Bettina Bökemeier & Andreea Stoian, 2018. "Debt Sustainability Issues in Central and East European Countries," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(5), pages 438-470, September.
    31. Richard J. Cebula, 2014. "An empirical investigation into the impact of US federal government budget deficits on the real interest rate yield on intermediate-term treasury issues, 1972-2012," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(28), pages 3483-3493, October.
    32. MITEZA, Ilir, 2006. "Devaluation And Output In Five Transition Economies: A Panel Cointegration Approach Of Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia And Romania, 1993-2000," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 6(1).
    33. International Monetary Fund, 2016. "Kingdom of the Netherlands—Curaçao and Sint Maarten: 2016 Article IV Consultation Discussions-Press Release; Staff Report; and Informational Annex," IMF Staff Country Reports 2016/276, International Monetary Fund.
    34. Aleda Mitchell & Eric J. Pentecost, 2001. "The Real Exchange Rate and the Output Response in Four Transition Economies: A Panel Data Study," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Christos Papazoglou & Eric J. Pentecost (ed.), Exchange Rate Policies, Prices and Supply-Side Response, chapter 5, pages 68-77, Palgrave Macmillan.
    35. International Monetary Fund, 2016. "Canada: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report," IMF Staff Country Reports 2016/146, International Monetary Fund.
    36. Yu Hsing, 2009. "Test of the J-curve for six selected new EU countries," International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 2(1), pages 76-85.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. HSING, Yu, 2016. "Is Real Depreciation Expansionary? The Case Of The Slovak Republic," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 16(2), pages 55-62.
    2. Yu Hsing, 2016. "Is Real Depreciation Contractionary? The Case of South Korea," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(4), pages 1951-1958.
    3. Yu HSING, 2016. "Is real depreciation expansionary? The case of the Czech Republic," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(3(608), A), pages 93-100, Autumn.
    4. Yu Hsing, 2016. "Impacts of Government Debt, the Exchange Rate and Other Macroeconomic Variables on Aggregate Output in Croatia," Managing Global Transitions, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 14(3 (Fall)), pages 223-231.
    5. Yu HSING, 2016. "Is real depreciation expansionary? The case of the Czech Republic," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(3(608), A), pages 93-100, Autumn.
    6. Yu Hsing, 2020. "Impacts of Real Depreciation and Appreciation on Aggregate Output in Taiwan," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 65(1), pages 123-130, March.
    7. Yu Hsing, 2016. "Is Real Depreciation Expansionary? The Case of Ireland," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 1-9.
    8. Hsing Yu & Hsieh Wen-jen, 2017. "Is Real Depreciation or Rising Government Debt Contractionary in India? A Simultaneous-Equation Model," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 17(2), pages 1-6, June.
    9. Yu Hsing & Minh Q. Huynh, 2019. "Effects of Depreciation and Appreciation of the Vietnamese Dong on Aggregate Output," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 9(2), pages 45-56, June.
    10. Costola, Michele & Lorusso, Marco, 2022. "Spillovers among energy commodities and the Russian stock market," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    11. Stephen Johnson, 2019. "Neorealism and the Organization of American States (OAS): An Examination of CARICOM Rationality Toward Venezuela and the United States," SAGE Open, , vol. 9(4), pages 21582440198, November.
    12. Yu Hsing, 2019. "Is Currency Appreciation or Depreciation Expansionary in Kosovo?," Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, vol. 22(1), pages 47-54, May.
    13. Yu Hsing, 2015. "Determinants of the Government Bond Yield in Spain: A Loanable Funds Model," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-9, July.
    14. Amal MATALLAH & Amal MATALLAH, 2017. "Does fiscal policy spur economic growth? Empirical evidence from Algeria," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(3(612), A), pages 125-146, Autumn.
    15. Carlos Vieira, 2004. "The Deficit?Interest Rate Connection: an empirical assessment of the EU," Economics Working Papers 5_2004, University of Évora, Department of Economics (Portugal).
    16. Soummane, Salaheddine & Ghersi, Frédéric & Lefèvre, Julien, 2019. "Macroeconomic pathways of the Saudi economy: The challenge of global mitigation action versus the opportunity of national energy reforms," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 263-282.
    17. Fukao, Kyoji & Perugini, Cristiano & Pompei, Fabrizio, 2020. "Labour Market Institutions, Technology and Rent Sharing," IZA Discussion Papers 13155, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    18. Hayo, Bernd & Neumeier, Florian, 2017. "The (In)validity of the Ricardian equivalence theorem–findings from a representative German population survey," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 162-174.
    19. Elmendorf, Douglas W. & Gregory Mankiw, N., 1999. "Government debt," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 25, pages 1615-1669, Elsevier.
    20. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, 2012. "Does Ricardian Equivalence Hold When Expectations Are Not Rational?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(7), pages 1259-1283, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    exchange rates; government deficits; interest rates; stock prices; labor cost;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:vrs:seejeb:v:12:y:2017:i:1:p:50-56:n:5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.sciendo.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.