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Structural Transformation Options of the Saudi Economy Under Constraint of Depressed World Oil Prices

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  • Salaheddine Soummane
  • Frédéric Ghersi
  • Franck Lecocq

Abstract

We implement the hybrid (energy-economy) recursive-dynamic multisector IMA-CLIM model with important adaptations to Saudi macroeconomics. We design two scenarios reflecting both the Saudi Vision 2030 economic development program and Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to greenhouse gas mitigation: Continuity of previous plans to expand energy-intensive activities under maintained energy-pricing policies, versus Transformation by economic diversification away from hydrocarbon-related activities and fiscal and energy-pricing reforms. We show that, compared to Continuity, Transformation improves activity, employment and public budget outlooks, while considerably abating the energy intensity of GDP and total CO2 emissions. Our results thus point at the relevance of economic diversification as both a hedging strategy against international climate change mitigation depressing oil markets and a national climate mitigation strategy for Saudi Arabia. However, the successful advancement of the reforms necessary for diversification remains conditional to setting a suitable institutional framework for a competitive economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Salaheddine Soummane & Frédéric Ghersi & Franck Lecocq, 2022. "Structural Transformation Options of the Saudi Economy Under Constraint of Depressed World Oil Prices," The Energy Journal, , vol. 43(3), pages 185-204, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:43:y:2022:i:3:p:185-204
    DOI: 10.5547/01956574.43.3.ssou
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    1. Soummane, Salaheddine & Ghersi, Frédéric & Lefèvre, Julien, 2019. "Macroeconomic pathways of the Saudi economy: The challenge of global mitigation action versus the opportunity of national energy reforms," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 263-282.
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    Cited by:

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic diversification; General equilibrium; Oil-exporting country; Climate policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O44 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Environment and Growth
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models

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