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A dynamic simulation of low-carbon policy influences on endogenous electricity demand in an isolated island system

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  • Matthew, George Jr.
  • Nuttall, William J
  • Mestel, Ben
  • Dooley, Laurence S

Abstract

This paper considers the dynamics of electricity demand in response to changes arising from low-carbon policies and socio-economic developments. As part of an investigation into the evolution of such systems on small economically-developed islands, endogenous electricity demand and associated policies are studied for the Azorean island of São Miguel. A comprehensive System Dynamics (SD) model covering the period 2005 − 2050 is presented which captures both historical behaviours and real-world influences on the endogenous demand dynamics of an island-based electricity system. The impact of tourism, energy efficiency and electric vehicles (EV) expansion allied with associated policy options, are critically evaluated by the SD model using a series of scenarios. The model shows that energy efficiency measures exhibit the most significant long-term impact on electricity demand, while in contrast, policies to increase tourism have a much less direct impact and EV expansion has thought-provoking impacts on the long-term demand, although this is not as influential as energy efficiency measures.

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  • Matthew, George Jr. & Nuttall, William J & Mestel, Ben & Dooley, Laurence S, 2017. "A dynamic simulation of low-carbon policy influences on endogenous electricity demand in an isolated island system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 121-131.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:109:y:2017:i:c:p:121-131
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2017.06.060
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    2. Guokui Wang & Xiaojia Guo & Jinxiu Fu & Qingyue Wei & Linlin Zhang, 2022. "Alternative pathways to CO2 reduction in Gansu province, China," Energy & Environment, , vol. 33(4), pages 809-825, June.
    3. Jinchai Lin & Kaiwei Zhu & Zhen Liu & Jenny Lieu & Xianchun Tan, 2019. "Study on A Simple Model to Forecast the Electricity Demand under China’s New Normal Situation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-28, June.
    4. Matthew, George Jr. & Nuttall, William J. & Mestel, Ben & Dooley, Laurence S., 2019. "Low carbon futures: Confronting electricity challenges on island systems," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 36-50.
    5. Chia-Yun Huang & Ting-To Yu & Wei-Min Lin & Kung-Ming Chung & Keh-Chin Chang, 2022. "Energy Sustainability on an Offshore Island: A Case Study in Taiwan," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-15, March.
    6. Benvenutti, Lívia M. & Uriona-Maldonado, Mauricio & Campos, Lucila M.S., 2019. "The impact of CO2 mitigation policies on light vehicle fleet in Brazil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 370-379.
    7. Qibao Shi & Weina Xu, 2023. "Low-Carbon Path Transformation for Different Types of Enterprises under the Dual-Carbon Target," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(6), pages 1-14, March.

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