IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v126y2019icp370-379.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The impact of CO2 mitigation policies on light vehicle fleet in Brazil

Author

Listed:
  • Benvenutti, Lívia M.
  • Uriona-Maldonado, Mauricio
  • Campos, Lucila M.S.

Abstract

Transportation is the largest contributor to greenhouse gas emissions in the energy sector, which, in turn, is the largest contributor in Brazil. The way different policies mitigate CO2 emissions in the short, medium, and long-term is an ongoing research topic. Four potential policies for light vehicle fleet are investigated: (i) energy efficiency; (ii) modal change and regulatory management; (iii) renovation of the fleet; and (iv) biofuel increase. A system dynamics model is developed to estimate the delay in fleet turnover and its CO2 emissions change during the 1980–2050 period. The results indicate a rebound effect in the long-term when an objective of renovating the fleet is realized. Only if more stringent terms are considered will this policy contribute to further mitigate CO2 emissions in the long run. Results also demonstrate a longer-term perspective to energy efficiency and modal change policies, indicating the need for mandatory CO2 emission targets, unseen in the country at the present time. A biofuel increase strategy provides CO2 reduction in the short-term, and it is advisable this strategy be adopted alongside the other ones.

Suggested Citation

  • Benvenutti, Lívia M. & Uriona-Maldonado, Mauricio & Campos, Lucila M.S., 2019. "The impact of CO2 mitigation policies on light vehicle fleet in Brazil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 370-379.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:126:y:2019:i:c:p:370-379
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2018.11.014
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421518307377
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2018.11.014?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Liu, Xue & Ma, Shoufeng & Tian, Junfang & Jia, Ning & Li, Geng, 2015. "A system dynamics approach to scenario analysis for urban passenger transport energy consumption and CO2 emissions: A case study of Beijing," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 253-270.
    2. Ajanovic, Amela & Haas, Reinhard, 2014. "On the future prospects and limits of biofuels in Brazil, the US and EU," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 730-737.
    3. Frank M. Bass, 1969. "A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(5), pages 215-227, January.
    4. Rachel Freeman & Mike Yearworth & Chris Preist, 2016. "Revisiting Jevons’ Paradox with System Dynamics: Systemic Causes and Potential Cures," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 20(2), pages 341-353, April.
    5. Onat, Nuri Cihat & Kucukvar, Murat & Tatari, Omer, 2016. "Uncertainty-embedded dynamic life cycle sustainability assessment framework: An ex-ante perspective on the impacts of alternative vehicle options," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 715-728.
    6. Matthew, George Jr. & Nuttall, William J & Mestel, Ben & Dooley, Laurence S, 2017. "A dynamic simulation of low-carbon policy influences on endogenous electricity demand in an isolated island system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 121-131.
    7. Menezes, Esther & Maia, Alexandre Gori & de Carvalho, Cristiane Silva, 2017. "Effectiveness of low-carbon development strategies: Evaluation of policy scenarios for the urban transport sector in a Brazilian megacity," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 226-241.
    8. Shafiei, Ehsan & Davidsdottir, Brynhildur & Leaver, Jonathan & Stefansson, Hlynur & Asgeirsson, Eyjolfur Ingi, 2014. "Potential impact of transition to a low-carbon transport system in Iceland," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 127-142.
    9. Shafiei, Ehsan & Davidsdottir, Brynhildur & Leaver, Jonathan & Stefansson, Hlynur & Asgeirsson, Eyjolfur Ingi & Keith, David R., 2016. "Analysis of supply-push strategies governing the transition to biofuel vehicles in a market-oriented renewable energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 409-421.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jessimon Ferreira & Dana I. Andrade & Maria E. K. Fuziki & Lariana N. B. de Almeida & Leda M. S. Colpini & Giane G. Lenzi & Angelo M. Tusset, 2022. "Catalytic Systems in the Reduction of Nitrogen Oxide Emissions in Diesel-Powered Trucks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-12, May.
    2. Lei Zhao & Wenbin Pan & Hao Lin, 2022. "Can Fujian Achieve Carbon Peak and Pollutant Reduction Targets before 2030? Case Study of 3E System in Southeastern China Based on System Dynamics," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-22, September.
    3. Nkosi, Mfundo & Dikgang, Johane & Kutela Gelo, Dambala & Pholo, Alain, 2021. "Greening the vehicle fleet, how does South Africa’s tax reforms affect new car sales," EconStor Preprints 236726, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    4. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Maria-Elena Boatca-Barabas & Andra Diaconescu, 2021. "The asymmetric effect of environmental policy stringency on CO2 emissions in OECD countries," Working Papers hal-03303096, HAL.
    5. Li, Jingjing & Nian, Victor & Jiao, Jianling, 2022. "Diffusion and benefits evaluation of electric vehicles under policy interventions based on a multiagent system dynamics model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 309(C).
    6. Rafael Fernandes Mosquim & Carlos Eduardo Keutenedjian Mady, 2022. "Performance and Efficiency Trade-Offs in Brazilian Passenger Vehicle Fleet," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-22, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shafiei, Ehsan & Davidsdottir, Brynhildur & Stefansson, Hlynur & Asgeirsson, Eyjolfur Ingi & Fazeli, Reza & Gestsson, Marías Halldór & Leaver, Jonathan, 2019. "Simulation-based appraisal of tax-induced electro-mobility promotion in Iceland and prospects for energy-economic development," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    2. Matthew, George Jr. & Nuttall, William J. & Mestel, Ben & Dooley, Laurence S., 2019. "Low carbon futures: Confronting electricity challenges on island systems," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 36-50.
    3. Gómez Vilchez, Jonatan J. & Jochem, Patrick, 2019. "Simulating vehicle fleet composition: A review of system dynamics models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    4. Shafiei, Ehsan & Davidsdottir, Brynhildur & Fazeli, Reza & Leaver, Jonathan & Stefansson, Hlynur & Asgeirsson, Eyjolfur Ingi, 2018. "Macroeconomic effects of fiscal incentives to promote electric vehicles in Iceland: Implications for government and consumer costs," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 431-443.
    5. Oliveira, Gabriela D. & Roth, Richard & Dias, Luis C., 2019. "Diffusion of alternative fuel vehicles considering dynamic preferences," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 83-99.
    6. Mohammadreza Zolfagharian & Bob Walrave & A. Georges L. Romme & Rob Raven, 2020. "Toward the Dynamic Modeling of Transition Problems: The Case of Electric Mobility," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-23, December.
    7. Shafiei, Ehsan & Davidsdottir, Brynhildur & Leaver, Jonathan & Stefansson, Hlynur & Asgeirsson, Eyjolfur Ingi & Keith, David R., 2016. "Analysis of supply-push strategies governing the transition to biofuel vehicles in a market-oriented renewable energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 409-421.
    8. Verônica Ghisolfi & Lóránt Antal Tavasszy & Gonçalo Homem de Almeida Correia & Gisele de Lorena Diniz Chaves & Glaydston Mattos Ribeiro, 2022. "Freight Transport Decarbonization: A Systematic Literature Review of System Dynamics Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-30, March.
    9. Spittler, Nathalie & Shafiei, Ehsan & Davidsdottir, Brynhildur & Juliusson, Egill, 2020. "Modelling geothermal resource utilization by incorporating resource dynamics, capacity expansion, and development costs," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    10. Spittler, Nathalie & Davidsdottir, Brynhildur & Shafiei, Ehsan & Leaver, Jonathan & Asgeirsson, Eyjolfur Ingi & Stefansson, Hlynur, 2020. "The role of geothermal resources in sustainable power system planning in Iceland," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 1081-1090.
    11. Oscar Gutiérrez & Francisco Ruiz-Aliseda, 2011. "Real options with unknown-date events," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 171-198, May.
    12. Shari, Babajide Epe & Dioha, Michael O. & Abraham-Dukuma, Magnus C. & Sobanke, Victor O. & Emodi, Nnaemeka V., 2022. "Clean cooking energy transition in Nigeria: Policy implications for Developing countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 319-343.
    13. Cambier, Adrien & Chardy, Matthieu & Figueiredo, Rosa & Ouorou, Adam & Poss, Michael, 2022. "Optimizing subscriber migrations for a telecommunication operator in uncertain context," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 298(1), pages 308-321.
    14. Tiruwork B. Tibebu & Eric Hittinger & Qing Miao & Eric Williams, 2024. "Adoption Model Choice Affects the Optimal Subsidy for Residential Solar," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(3), pages 1-19, February.
    15. Simon P. Anderson & André de Palma, 2012. "Competition for attention in the Information (overload) Age," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 43(1), pages 1-25, March.
    16. Van, Tien Linh Cao & Barthelmes, Lukas & Gnann, Till & Speth, Daniel & Kagerbauer, Martin, 2021. "Addressing the gaps in market diffusion modeling of electrical vehicles: A case study from Germany for the integration of environmental policy measures," Working Papers "Sustainability and Innovation" S05/2021, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI).
    17. Ma, Peng, 2021. "Optimal generic and brand advertising efforts in a decentralized supply chain considering customer surplus," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    18. Sergio Currarini & Carmen Marchiori & Alessandro Tavoni, 2016. "Network Economics and the Environment: Insights and Perspectives," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 65(1), pages 159-189, September.
    19. Klingler, Anna-Lena & Luthander, Rasmus, 2018. "Market diffusion of residential PV and battery systems driven by self-consumption: A comparison of Sweden and Germany," Working Papers "Sustainability and Innovation" S18/2018, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI).
    20. Robertson, Alastair & Soopramanien, Didier & Fildes, Robert, 2007. "A segment-based analysis of Internet service adoption among UK households," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 339-350.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:126:y:2019:i:c:p:370-379. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.