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The impact of CO2 mitigation policies on light vehicle fleet in Brazil

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  • Benvenutti, Lívia M.
  • Uriona-Maldonado, Mauricio
  • Campos, Lucila M.S.

Abstract

Transportation is the largest contributor to greenhouse gas emissions in the energy sector, which, in turn, is the largest contributor in Brazil. The way different policies mitigate CO2 emissions in the short, medium, and long-term is an ongoing research topic. Four potential policies for light vehicle fleet are investigated: (i) energy efficiency; (ii) modal change and regulatory management; (iii) renovation of the fleet; and (iv) biofuel increase. A system dynamics model is developed to estimate the delay in fleet turnover and its CO2 emissions change during the 1980–2050 period. The results indicate a rebound effect in the long-term when an objective of renovating the fleet is realized. Only if more stringent terms are considered will this policy contribute to further mitigate CO2 emissions in the long run. Results also demonstrate a longer-term perspective to energy efficiency and modal change policies, indicating the need for mandatory CO2 emission targets, unseen in the country at the present time. A biofuel increase strategy provides CO2 reduction in the short-term, and it is advisable this strategy be adopted alongside the other ones.

Suggested Citation

  • Benvenutti, Lívia M. & Uriona-Maldonado, Mauricio & Campos, Lucila M.S., 2019. "The impact of CO2 mitigation policies on light vehicle fleet in Brazil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 370-379.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:126:y:2019:i:c:p:370-379
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2018.11.014
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    2. Lei Zhao & Wenbin Pan & Hao Lin, 2022. "Can Fujian Achieve Carbon Peak and Pollutant Reduction Targets before 2030? Case Study of 3E System in Southeastern China Based on System Dynamics," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-22, September.
    3. Nkosi, Mfundo & Dikgang, Johane & Kutela Gelo, Dambala & Pholo, Alain, 2021. "Greening the vehicle fleet, how does South Africa’s tax reforms affect new car sales," EconStor Preprints 236726, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    4. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Maria-Elena Boatca-Barabas & Andra Diaconescu, 2021. "The asymmetric effect of environmental policy stringency on CO2 emissions in OECD countries," Working Papers hal-03303096, HAL.
    5. Li, Jingjing & Nian, Victor & Jiao, Jianling, 2022. "Diffusion and benefits evaluation of electric vehicles under policy interventions based on a multiagent system dynamics model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 309(C).
    6. Rafael Fernandes Mosquim & Carlos Eduardo Keutenedjian Mady, 2022. "Performance and Efficiency Trade-Offs in Brazilian Passenger Vehicle Fleet," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-22, July.

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