IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v65y2017icp16-31.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The 1000 GtC coal question: Are cases of vastly expanded future coal combustion still plausible?

Author

Listed:
  • Ritchie, Justin
  • Dowlatabadi, Hadi

Abstract

Decades ago, prospects seemed strong for significantly expanded global coal consumption. Studies of energy futures depicted the full geologic extent of coal as a virtually unlimited backstop energy supply, drawing justification from legacy ratios of reserves-to-production (R-P) on the order of several centuries. Annual consumption and market prices for hard coal have doubled since 1990, providing an opportunity to recalibrate the next century's reference case with an empirically constrained outlook for this important industrial fuel source.

Suggested Citation

  • Ritchie, Justin & Dowlatabadi, Hadi, 2017. "The 1000 GtC coal question: Are cases of vastly expanded future coal combustion still plausible?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 16-31.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:65:y:2017:i:c:p:16-31
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2017.04.015
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988317301226
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eneco.2017.04.015?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alexander Y. Klimenko, 2009. "Early Ideas in Underground Coal Gasification and Their Evolution," Energies, MDPI, vol. 2(2), pages 1-21, June.
    2. Allison Thomson & Katherine Calvin & Steven Smith & G. Kyle & April Volke & Pralit Patel & Sabrina Delgado-Arias & Ben Bond-Lamberty & Marshall Wise & Leon Clarke & James Edmonds, 2011. "RCP4.5: a pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 77-94, November.
    3. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC, 2008. "Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report," Working Papers id:1325, eSocialSciences.
    4. Martin B. Zimmerman, 1977. "Modeling Depletion in a Mineral Industry: The Case of Coal," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 8(1), pages 41-65, Spring.
    5. Waldhoff, Stephanie & Anthoff, David & Rose, Steven K. & Tol, Richard S. J., 2014. "The marginal damage costs of different greenhouse gases: An application of FUND," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 8, pages 1-33.
    6. Toshihiko Masui & Kenichi Matsumoto & Yasuaki Hijioka & Tsuguki Kinoshita & Toru Nozawa & Sawako Ishiwatari & Etsushi Kato & P. Shukla & Yoshiki Yamagata & Mikiko Kainuma, 2011. "An emission pathway for stabilization at 6 Wm −2 radiative forcing," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 59-76, November.
    7. Bauer, Nico & Hilaire, Jérôme & Brecha, Robert J. & Edmonds, Jae & Jiang, Kejun & Kriegler, Elmar & Rogner, Hans-Holger & Sferra, Fabio, 2016. "Assessing global fossil fuel availability in a scenario framework," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 580-592.
    8. Detlef Vuuren & Jae Edmonds & Mikiko Kainuma & Keywan Riahi & Allison Thomson & Kathy Hibbard & George Hurtt & Tom Kram & Volker Krey & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Toshihiko Masui & Malte Meinshausen & N, 2011. "The representative concentration pathways: an overview," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 5-31, November.
    9. Wang, Jianliang & Feng, Lianyong & Davidsson, Simon & Höök, Mikael, 2013. "Chinese coal supply and future production outlooks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 204-214.
    10. Watkins, G.C., 2006. "Oil scarcity: What have the past three decades revealed?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 508-514, March.
    11. Global Energy Assessment Writing Team,, 2012. "Global Energy Assessment," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521182935, October.
    12. Keywan Riahi & Shilpa Rao & Volker Krey & Cheolhung Cho & Vadim Chirkov & Guenther Fischer & Georg Kindermann & Nebojsa Nakicenovic & Peter Rafaj, 2011. "RCP 8.5—A scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 33-57, November.
    13. Katarzyna B. Tokarska & Nathan P. Gillett & Andrew J. Weaver & Vivek K. Arora & Michael Eby, 2016. "The climate response to five trillion tonnes of carbon," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(9), pages 851-855, September.
    14. David McCollum & Nico Bauer & Katherine Calvin & Alban Kitous & Keywan Riahi, 2014. "Fossil resource and energy security dynamics in conventional and carbon-constrained worlds," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(3), pages 413-426, April.
    15. Grubert, Emily, 2012. "Reserve reporting in the United States coal industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 174-184.
    16. Global Energy Assessment Writing Team,, 2012. "Global Energy Assessment," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107005198, October.
    17. Richard H. Moss & Jae A. Edmonds & Kathy A. Hibbard & Martin R. Manning & Steven K. Rose & Detlef P. van Vuuren & Timothy R. Carter & Seita Emori & Mikiko Kainuma & Tom Kram & Gerald A. Meehl & John F, 2010. "The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment," Nature, Nature, vol. 463(7282), pages 747-756, February.
    18. M.A. Adelman and G.C. Watkins, 2008. "Reserve Prices and Mineral Resource Theory," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 1-16.
    19. Detlef Vuuren & Elke Stehfest & Michel Elzen & Tom Kram & Jasper Vliet & Sebastiaan Deetman & Morna Isaac & Kees Klein Goldewijk & Andries Hof & Angelica Mendoza Beltran & Rineke Oostenrijk & Bas Ruij, 2011. "RCP2.6: exploring the possibility to keep global mean temperature increase below 2°C," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 95-116, November.
    20. Alberth, Stephan & Hope, Chris, 2007. "Climate modelling with endogenous technical change: Stochastic learning and optimal greenhouse gas abatement in the PAGE2002 model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1795-1807, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fankhauser, Samuel & Jotzo, Frank, 2017. "Economic growth and development with low-carbon energy," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86850, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Jerome Dumortier & Miguel Carriquiry & Amani Elobeid, 2021. "Impact of climate change on global agricultural markets under different shared socioeconomic pathways," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(6), pages 963-984, November.
    3. Richard S.J. Tol, 2018. "Energy and Climate," Working Paper Series 1618, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    4. Gagarin, H. & Sridhar, S. & Lange, I. & Bazilian, M.D., 2020. "Considering non-power generation uses of coal in the United States," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    5. Kühne, Kjell & Bartsch, Nils & Tate, Ryan Driskell & Higson, Julia & Habet, André, 2022. "“Carbon Bombs” - Mapping key fossil fuel projects," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    6. Liz Wachs & Shweta Singh, 2020. "Projecting the urban energy demand for Indiana, USA, in 2050 and 2080," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(4), pages 1949-1966, December.
    7. Ronan Connolly & Michael Connolly & Robert M. Carter & Willie Soon, 2020. "How Much Human-Caused Global Warming Should We Expect with Business-As-Usual (BAU) Climate Policies? A Semi-Empirical Assessment," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-51, March.
    8. David Archer & Edwin Kite & Greg Lusk, 2020. "The ultimate cost of carbon," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(4), pages 2069-2086, October.
    9. Amro Nasr & Oskar Larsson Ivanov & Ivar Björnsson & Jonas Johansson & Dániel Honfi, 2021. "Towards a Conceptual Framework for Built Infrastructure Design in an Uncertain Climate: Challenges and Research Needs," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-19, October.
    10. Xu, Bin & Lin, Boqiang, 2018. "Assessing the development of China's new energy industry," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 116-131.
    11. Ignacio Losada Carreño & Michael T. Craig & Michael Rossol & Moetasim Ashfaq & Fulden Batibeniz & Sue Ellen Haupt & Caroline Draxl & Bri-Mathias Hodge & Carlo Brancucci, 2020. "Potential impacts of climate change on wind and solar electricity generation in Texas," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(2), pages 745-766, November.
    12. Sally Brown & Katie Jenkins & Philip Goodwin & Daniel Lincke & Athanasios T. Vafeidis & Richard S. J. Tol & Rhosanna Jenkins & Rachel Warren & Robert J. Nicholls & Svetlana Jevrejeva & Agustin Sanchez, 2021. "Global costs of protecting against sea-level rise at 1.5 to 4.0 °C," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 167(1), pages 1-21, July.
    13. Ritchie, Justin & Dowlatabadi, Hadi, 2017. "Evaluating the Learning-by-Doing Theory of Long-Run Oil, Gas, and Coal Economics," RFF Working Paper Series 17-14, Resources for the Future.
    14. Ritchie, Justin & Dowlatabadi, Hadi, 2017. "Why do climate change scenarios return to coal?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 140(P1), pages 1276-1291.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ritchie, Justin & Dowlatabadi, Hadi, 2017. "Why do climate change scenarios return to coal?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 140(P1), pages 1276-1291.
    2. Fujimori, S. & Kainuma, M. & Masui, T. & Hasegawa, T. & Dai, H., 2014. "The effectiveness of energy service demand reduction: A scenario analysis of global climate change mitigation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 379-391.
    3. Cai, Yiyong & Newth, David & Finnigan, John & Gunasekera, Don, 2015. "A hybrid energy-economy model for global integrated assessment of climate change, carbon mitigation and energy transformation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 381-395.
    4. Mishra, Gouri Shankar & Zakerinia, Saleh & Yeh, Sonia & Teter, Jacob & Morrison, Geoff, 2014. "Mitigating climate change: Decomposing the relative roles of energy conservation, technological change, and structural shift," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 448-455.
    5. Matsumoto, Ken׳ichi & Andriosopoulos, Kostas, 2016. "Energy security in East Asia under climate mitigation scenarios in the 21st century," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 59(PA), pages 60-71.
    6. Fujimori, Shinichiro & Masui, Toshihiko & Matsuoka, Yuzuru, 2014. "Development of a global computable general equilibrium model coupled with detailed energy end-use technology," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 296-306.
    7. Tokimatsu, Koji & Konishi, Satoshi & Ishihara, Keiichi & Tezuka, Tetsuo & Yasuoka, Rieko & Nishio, Masahiro, 2016. "Role of innovative technologies under the global zero emissions scenarios," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1483-1493.
    8. Bauer, Nico & Hilaire, Jérôme & Brecha, Robert J. & Edmonds, Jae & Jiang, Kejun & Kriegler, Elmar & Rogner, Hans-Holger & Sferra, Fabio, 2016. "Assessing global fossil fuel availability in a scenario framework," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 580-592.
    9. Harvey, L.D. Danny, 2014. "Global climate-oriented building energy use scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 473-487.
    10. Keigo Akimoto & Fuminori Sano & Ayami Hayashi & Takashi Homma & Junichiro Oda & Kenichi Wada & Miyuki Nagashima & Kohko Tokushige & Toshimasa Tomoda, 2012. "Consistent assessments of pathways toward sustainable development and climate stabilization," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(4), pages 231-244, November.
    11. Fujimori, Shinichiro & Dai, Hancheng & Masui, Toshihiko & Matsuoka, Yuzuru, 2016. "Global energy model hindcasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 293-301.
    12. Taylor, Chris & Cullen, Brendan & D'Occhio, Michael & Rickards, Lauren & Eckard, Richard, 2018. "Trends in wheat yields under representative climate futures: Implications for climate adaptation," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 1-10.
    13. David Bryngelsson & Fredrik Hedenus & Daniel J. A. Johansson & Christian Azar & Stefan Wirsenius, 2017. "How Do Dietary Choices Influence the Energy-System Cost of Stabilizing the Climate?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-13, February.
    14. Wang, Jianliang & Feng, Lianyong & Steve, Mohr & Tang, Xu & Gail, Tverberg E. & Mikael, Höök, 2015. "China's unconventional oil: A review of its resources and outlook for long-term production," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 31-42.
    15. Amouzou, Kokou Adambounou & Naab, Jesse B. & Lamers, John P.A. & Borgemeister, Christian & Becker, Mathias & Vlek, Paul L.G., 2018. "CROPGRO-Cotton model for determining climate change impacts on yield, water- and N- use efficiencies of cotton in the Dry Savanna of West Africa," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 85-96.
    16. Kokou Amega & Yendoubé Laré & Ramchandra Bhandari & Yacouba Moumouni & Aklesso Y. G. Egbendewe & Windmanagda Sawadogo & Saidou Madougou, 2022. "Solar Energy Powered Decentralized Smart-Grid for Sustainable Energy Supply in Low-Income Countries: Analysis Considering Climate Change Influences in Togo," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-24, December.
    17. Turner, Sean W.D. & Hejazi, Mohamad & Kim, Son H. & Clarke, Leon & Edmonds, Jae, 2017. "Climate impacts on hydropower and consequences for global electricity supply investment needs," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 2081-2090.
    18. Aikaterini Papapostolou & Charikleia Karakosta & Kalliopi-Anastasia Kourti & Haris Doukas & John Psarras, 2019. "Supporting Europe’s Energy Policy Towards a Decarbonised Energy System: A Comparative Assessment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(15), pages 1-26, July.
    19. Teotónio, Carla & Fortes, Patrícia & Roebeling, Peter & Rodriguez, Miguel & Robaina-Alves, Margarita, 2017. "Assessing the impacts of climate change on hydropower generation and the power sector in Portugal: A partial equilibrium approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 788-799.
    20. Guivarch, Céline & Monjon, Stéphanie, 2017. "Identifying the main uncertainty drivers of energy security in a low-carbon world: The case of Europe," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 530-541.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Energy economics; Climate change; Coal resources; Greenhouse gas scenarios; Coal backstop;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q35 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Hydrocarbon Resources
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:65:y:2017:i:c:p:16-31. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.