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The 1000 GtC coal question: Are cases of vastly expanded future coal combustion still plausible?

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  • Ritchie, Justin
  • Dowlatabadi, Hadi

Abstract

Decades ago, prospects seemed strong for significantly expanded global coal consumption. Studies of energy futures depicted the full geologic extent of coal as a virtually unlimited backstop energy supply, drawing justification from legacy ratios of reserves-to-production (R-P) on the order of several centuries. Annual consumption and market prices for hard coal have doubled since 1990, providing an opportunity to recalibrate the next century's reference case with an empirically constrained outlook for this important industrial fuel source.

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  • Ritchie, Justin & Dowlatabadi, Hadi, 2017. "The 1000 GtC coal question: Are cases of vastly expanded future coal combustion still plausible?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 16-31.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:65:y:2017:i:c:p:16-31
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2017.04.015
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    3. Liz Wachs & Shweta Singh, 2020. "Projecting the urban energy demand for Indiana, USA, in 2050 and 2080," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(4), pages 1949-1966, December.
    4. Ronan Connolly & Michael Connolly & Robert M. Carter & Willie Soon, 2020. "How Much Human-Caused Global Warming Should We Expect with Business-As-Usual (BAU) Climate Policies? A Semi-Empirical Assessment," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-51, March.
    5. David Archer & Edwin Kite & Greg Lusk, 2020. "The ultimate cost of carbon," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(4), pages 2069-2086, October.
    6. Richard S.J. Tol, 2018. "Energy and Climate," Working Paper Series 1618, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    7. Amro Nasr & Oskar Larsson Ivanov & Ivar Björnsson & Jonas Johansson & Dániel Honfi, 2021. "Towards a Conceptual Framework for Built Infrastructure Design in an Uncertain Climate: Challenges and Research Needs," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-19, October.
    8. Xu, Bin & Lin, Boqiang, 2018. "Assessing the development of China's new energy industry," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 116-131.
    9. Ignacio Losada Carreño & Michael T. Craig & Michael Rossol & Moetasim Ashfaq & Fulden Batibeniz & Sue Ellen Haupt & Caroline Draxl & Bri-Mathias Hodge & Carlo Brancucci, 2020. "Potential impacts of climate change on wind and solar electricity generation in Texas," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(2), pages 745-766, November.
    10. Sally Brown & Katie Jenkins & Philip Goodwin & Daniel Lincke & Athanasios T. Vafeidis & Richard S. J. Tol & Rhosanna Jenkins & Rachel Warren & Robert J. Nicholls & Svetlana Jevrejeva & Agustin Sanchez, 2021. "Global costs of protecting against sea-level rise at 1.5 to 4.0 °C," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 167(1), pages 1-21, July.
    11. Ritchie, Justin & Dowlatabadi, Hadi, 2017. "Evaluating the Learning-by-Doing Theory of Long-Run Oil, Gas, and Coal Economics," RFF Working Paper Series 17-14, Resources for the Future.
    12. Gagarin, H. & Sridhar, S. & Lange, I. & Bazilian, M.D., 2020. "Considering non-power generation uses of coal in the United States," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    13. Kühne, Kjell & Bartsch, Nils & Tate, Ryan Driskell & Higson, Julia & Habet, André, 2022. "“Carbon Bombs” - Mapping key fossil fuel projects," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    14. Ritchie, Justin & Dowlatabadi, Hadi, 2017. "Why do climate change scenarios return to coal?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 140(P1), pages 1276-1291.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Energy economics; Climate change; Coal resources; Greenhouse gas scenarios; Coal backstop;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q35 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Hydrocarbon Resources
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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