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Exploring the implications of lifestyle change in 2°C mitigation scenarios using the IMAGE integrated assessment model

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  • van Sluisveld, Mariësse A.E.
  • Martínez, Sara Herreras
  • Daioglou, Vassilis
  • van Vuuren, Detlef P.

Abstract

Most model studies focus on technical solutions in order to meet the 2°C climate target, such as renewable, carbon capture and energy efficiency technologies. Such studies show that it becomes increasingly more difficult to attain the 2°C target with carbon price driven technical solutions alone. This indicates the need to focus more on non-economic and non-technological drivers of energy system transformations, which are generally not explicitly included in long-term scenario studies. This study implements a set of lifestyle change measures for residential energy use, mobility and waste management in the integrated assessment model IMAGE. We analyze the implications of these lifestyle changes in a business-as-usual and 2°C climate mitigation reference case. We find that lifestyle change measures included in this study mostly affect the end-use sectors. By 2050, the measures reduce CO2 emissions in the residential sector by about 13% and in the transport sector by about 35% compared to baseline emissions. The indirect implications in the industry and energy supply sectors were found to be negligible. In mitigation scenarios the contribution of lifestyle measures is dampened in end-use sectors as they overlap with more technical measures. Yet, as they may create opportunities to mitigate in sectors without more radical changes in (1) the energy infrastructure and (2) on the short term, it leads to a more cost-efficient mitigation strategy. Further research in how behavior can be internalized into integrated assessment studies is recommendable.

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  • van Sluisveld, Mariësse A.E. & Martínez, Sara Herreras & Daioglou, Vassilis & van Vuuren, Detlef P., 2016. "Exploring the implications of lifestyle change in 2°C mitigation scenarios using the IMAGE integrated assessment model," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 309-319.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:102:y:2016:i:c:p:309-319
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2015.08.013
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    8. Nieves, J.A. & Aristizábal, A.J. & Dyner, I. & Báez, O. & Ospina, D.H., 2019. "Energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions analysis in Colombia: A LEAP model application," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 380-397.
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    11. Le Gallic, Thomas & Assoumou, Edi & Maïzi, Nadia, 2017. "Future demand for energy services through a quantitative approach of lifestyles," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 2613-2627.
    12. Levesque, Antoine & Pietzcker, Robert C. & Baumstark, Lavinia & De Stercke, Simon & Grübler, Arnulf & Luderer, Gunnar, 2018. "How much energy will buildings consume in 2100? A global perspective within a scenario framework," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 514-527.
    13. Edelenbosch, O.Y. & van Vuuren, D.P. & Blok, K. & Calvin, K. & Fujimori, S., 2020. "Mitigating energy demand sector emissions: The integrated modelling perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    14. van Sluisveld, Mariësse A.E. & Hof, Andries F. & Carrara, Samuel & Geels, Frank W. & Nilsson, Måns & Rogge, Karoline & Turnheim, Bruno & van Vuuren, Detlef P., 2020. "Aligning integrated assessment modelling with socio-technical transition insights: An application to low-carbon energy scenario analysis in Europe," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    15. Napp, T.A. & Few, S. & Sood, A. & Bernie, D. & Hawkes, A. & Gambhir, A., 2019. "The role of advanced demand-sector technologies and energy demand reduction in achieving ambitious carbon budgets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C), pages 351-367.
    16. Ai Sian Ng & May O. Lwin & Augustine Pang, 2017. "Toward a Theoretical Framework for Studying Climate Change Policies: Insights from the Case Study of Singapore," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(7), pages 1-21, July.

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