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Hedging strategy for ethanol processing with copula distributions

Author

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  • Awudu, Iddrisu
  • Wilson, William
  • Dahl, Bruce

Abstract

It has become important for ethanol producers to hedge input and output price risks. The purpose of this paper is to analyze an ethanol-producing firm's strategy to reduce price risks for inputs and outputs. Corn is the primary input, and the outputs are ethanol, corn oil, distillers' dried grains (DDGs), and renewable identification numbers (RINs). A theoretical model is developed including margins and risk is measured using value at risk (VaR). An empirical model is developed and extended to VaR using copulas to analyze the marginal distribution and dependence structure for input and output prices on margins. Efficient frontier curves analyzing VaR with and without copula are discussed. The results compare varying risk-strategy measures for long corn, short corn, and combining short and long corn. Sensitivity analyses are conducted for functional changes in the margin as a result of ethanol price changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Awudu, Iddrisu & Wilson, William & Dahl, Bruce, 2016. "Hedging strategy for ethanol processing with copula distributions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 59-65.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:57:y:2016:i:c:p:59-65
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2016.04.011
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Nguyen, Quynh Nga & Bedoui, Rihab & Majdoub, Najemeddine & Guesmi, Khaled & Chevallier, Julien, 2020. "Hedging and safe-haven characteristics of Gold against currencies: An investigation based on multivariate dynamic copula theory," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    2. Liu, Pan & Vedenov, Dmitry & Power, Gabriel J., 2017. "Is hedging the crack spread no longer all it's cracked up to be?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 31-40.
    3. Sukcharoen, Kunlapath & Leatham, David J., 2017. "Hedging downside risk of oil refineries: A vine copula approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 493-507.
    4. Chai, Shanglei & Zhou, P., 2018. "The Minimum-CVaR strategy with semi-parametric estimation in carbon market hedging problems," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 64-75.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ethanol; Hedging; Value at risk; Copula; Efficient frontier;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • Q13 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Markets and Marketing; Cooperatives; Agribusiness
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources

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