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A generalized product adoption model under random marketing conditions

Author

Listed:
  • Shiva

    (J. C. Bose University of Science and Technology, YMCA)

  • Neetu Gupta

    (J. C. Bose University of Science and Technology, YMCA)

  • Anu G. Aggarwal

    (University of Delhi)

Abstract

In marketing research, diffusion models are extensively utilized to predict the trend of new product adoption over time. These models are categorized based on their deterministic or stochastic characteristics. While deterministic models disregard the stochasticity of the adoption rate influenced by environmental and internal factors, we aim to address this limitation by proposing a generalized innovation diffusion model that accounts for such uncertainties. We validate our approach using the particle swarm optimization (PSO) technique on actual sales data from technological products. Our findings suggest that the proposed model outperforms existing diffusion models in forecasting accuracy.

Suggested Citation

  • Shiva & Neetu Gupta & Anu G. Aggarwal, 2024. "A generalized product adoption model under random marketing conditions," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 15(10), pages 4897-4904, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:ijsaem:v:15:y:2024:i:10:d:10.1007_s13198-024-02499-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s13198-024-02499-1
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