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Near-term limits to mitigation: Challenges arising from contrary mitigation effects from indirect land-use change and sulfur emissions

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  • Calvin, Katherine
  • Wise, Marshall
  • Clarke, Leon
  • Edmonds, James
  • Jones, Andrew
  • Thomson, Allison

Abstract

We explore the implications of potentially counteractive greenhouse gas mitigation responses to carbon prices and the complications that could ensue for limiting radiative forcing in the near-term. Specifically we consider the problem of reproducing the radiative forcing pathway for Representative Concentration Pathway, RCP4.5, which stabilizes radiative forcing at 4.5Wm−2 (650ppm CO2-e) under a different terrestrial policy assumption. We show that if indirect land-use change emissions are not priced, carbon prices that can replicate this pathway in the near-term may not exist. We further show that additional complexities could emerge as a consequence of the co-production of CO2 and sulfur emissions as byproducts of fossil fuel combustion.

Suggested Citation

  • Calvin, Katherine & Wise, Marshall & Clarke, Leon & Edmonds, James & Jones, Andrew & Thomson, Allison, 2014. "Near-term limits to mitigation: Challenges arising from contrary mitigation effects from indirect land-use change and sulfur emissions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 233-239.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:42:y:2014:i:c:p:233-239
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2013.09.026
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gurgel Angelo & Reilly John M & Paltsev Sergey, 2007. "Potential Land Use Implications of a Global Biofuels Industry," Journal of Agricultural & Food Industrial Organization, De Gruyter, vol. 5(2), pages 1-36, December.
    2. Detlef Vuuren & Jae Edmonds & Mikiko Kainuma & Keywan Riahi & Allison Thomson & Kathy Hibbard & George Hurtt & Tom Kram & Volker Krey & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Toshihiko Masui & Malte Meinshausen & N, 2011. "The representative concentration pathways: an overview," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 5-31, November.
    3. Searchinger, Timothy & Heimlich, Ralph & Houghton, R. A. & Dong, Fengxia & Elobeid, Amani & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Tokgoz, Simla & Hayes, Dermot J. & Yu, Hun-Hsiang, 2008. "Use of U.S. Croplands for Biofuels Increases Greenhouse Gases Through Emissions from Land-Use Change," Staff General Research Papers Archive 12881, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    4. Allison Thomson & Katherine Calvin & Steven Smith & G. Kyle & April Volke & Pralit Patel & Sabrina Delgado-Arias & Ben Bond-Lamberty & Marshall Wise & Leon Clarke & James Edmonds, 2011. "RCP4.5: a pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 77-94, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrew Jones & Katherine Calvin & William Collins & James Edmonds, 2015. "Accounting for radiative forcing from albedo change in future global land-use scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 131(4), pages 691-703, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Integrated Assessment Modeling; Indirect land-use change emissions;

    JEL classification:

    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • Q53 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q24 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Land
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
    • Q50 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - General

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