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Accounting for radiative forcing from albedo change in future global land-use scenarios

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  • Andrew Jones
  • Katherine Calvin
  • William Collins
  • James Edmonds

Abstract

We demonstrate the effectiveness of a new method for quantifying radiative forcing from land use and land cover change (LULCC) within an integrated assessment model, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). The method relies on geographically differentiated estimates of radiative forcing from albedo change associated with major land cover transitions derived from the Community Earth System Model. We find that conversion of 1 km 2 of woody vegetation (forest and shrublands) to non-woody vegetation (crops and grassland) yields between 0 and −0.71 nW/m 2 of globally averaged radiative forcing determined by the vegetation characteristics, snow dynamics, and atmospheric radiation environment characteristic within each of 151 regions we consider globally. Across a set of scenarios designed to span a range of potential future LULCC, we find LULCC forcing ranging from −0.06 to −0.29 W/m 2 by 2070 depending on assumptions regarding future crop yield growth and whether climate policy favors afforestation or bioenergy crops. Inclusion of this previously uncounted forcing in the policy targets driving future climate mitigation efforts leads to changes in fossil fuel emissions on the order of 1.5 PgC/yr by 2070 for a climate forcing limit of 4.5 Wm −2 , corresponding to a 12–67 % change in fossil fuel emissions depending on the scenario. Scenarios with significant afforestation must compensate for albedo-induced warming through additional emissions reductions, and scenarios with significant deforestation need not mitigate as aggressively due to albedo-induced cooling. In all scenarios considered, inclusion of albedo forcing in policy targets increases forest and shrub cover globally. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht (outside the USA) 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Jones & Katherine Calvin & William Collins & James Edmonds, 2015. "Accounting for radiative forcing from albedo change in future global land-use scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 131(4), pages 691-703, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:131:y:2015:i:4:p:691-703
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1411-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lee, Huey-Lin & Hertel, Thomas W. & Sohngen, Brent & Ramankutty, Navin, 2005. "Towards An Integrated Land Use Database for Assessing the Potential for Greenhouse Gas Mitigation," Technical Papers 283423, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    2. Calvin, Katherine & Wise, Marshall & Clarke, Leon & Edmonds, James & Jones, Andrew & Thomson, Allison, 2014. "Near-term limits to mitigation: Challenges arising from contrary mitigation effects from indirect land-use change and sulfur emissions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 233-239.
    3. Claudia Tebaldi & Julie Arblaster, 2014. "Pattern scaling: Its strengths and limitations, and an update on the latest model simulations," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 459-471, February.
    4. Richard A. Betts, 2000. "Offset of the potential carbon sink from boreal forestation by decreases in surface albedo," Nature, Nature, vol. 408(6809), pages 187-190, November.
    5. Detlef Vuuren & Jae Edmonds & Mikiko Kainuma & Keywan Riahi & Allison Thomson & Kathy Hibbard & George Hurtt & Tom Kram & Volker Krey & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Toshihiko Masui & Malte Meinshausen & N, 2011. "The representative concentration pathways: an overview," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 5-31, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Eriksson, Mathilda, 2020. "Afforestation and avoided deforestation in a multi-regional integrated assessment model," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    2. Alice Favero & Robert Mendelsohn & Brent Sohngen, 2017. "Using forests for climate mitigation: sequester carbon or produce woody biomass?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 144(2), pages 195-206, September.
    3. Shenghui Zhou & Ke Wang & Shiqi Yang & Wenli Li & Yuxuan Zhang & Bin Zhang & Yiming Fu & Xiaoyan Liu & Yadi Run & Oliva Gabriel Chubwa & Guosong Zhao & Jinwei Dong & Yaoping Cui, 2020. "Warming Effort and Energy Budget Difference of Various Human Land Use Intensity: Case Study of Beijing, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-15, August.

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