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The dynamics and elasticities on the U.S. natural gas market. A Bayesian Structural VAR analysis

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  • Rubaszek, Michał
  • Szafranek, Karol
  • Uddin, Gazi Salah

Abstract

Natural gas is an important source of energy in the global economy, hence understanding the drivers of its prices is of significant interest for economic agents. This paper investigates the role of structural shocks for the dynamics of the U.S. natural gas market within the Bayesian Structural Vector Autoregression framework applied by Baumeister and Hamilton (2019a, AER), to the crude oil market. This approach provides clear intuition for the identification strategy and allows us to correctly estimate the short-term price elasticity of natural gas supply and demand. Our results indicate that the former is low, whereas the latter is higher than the average estimate in the literature. We also show that market specific demand shocks explain a dominant fraction of natural gas prices variability, while the contribution of supply, aggregate economic activity and inventory shocks is important only during specific market events such as the recent outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Finally, we illustrate how changes in supply in the era of shale gas revolution contributed to the dynamics of natural gas prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Rubaszek, Michał & Szafranek, Karol & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2021. "The dynamics and elasticities on the U.S. natural gas market. A Bayesian Structural VAR analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:103:y:2021:i:c:s0140988321004047
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105526
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    Cited by:

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    3. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Andrea Gazzani, 2023. "Natural gas and the macroeconomy: not all energy shocks are alike," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1428, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. Szafranek Karol & Rubaszek Michał, 2024. "Have European natural gas prices decoupled from crude oil prices? Evidence from TVP-VAR analysis," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 28(3), pages 507-530.
    5. Michał Rubaszek & Karol Szafranek, 2025. "The European energy crisis and the US natural gas market dynamics: a structural VAR investigation," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 1-22, February.
    6. Delalibera, Bruno R. & Serrano-Quintero, Rafael & Zimmermann, Guilherme G., 2023. "Reforms in the natural gas sector and economic development," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    7. Karol Szafranek & Michał Rubaszek, 2024. "The European energy crisis and the US natural gas market dynamics. A structural VAR investigation," KAE Working Papers 2024-099, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Natural gas market; Structural VAR; Impulse-response function; Bayesian inference;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • Q31 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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