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Uncertainty-dependent and sign-dependent effects of oil market shocks

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  • Nguyen, Bao H.
  • Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi
  • Tran, Trung Duc

Abstract

This paper investigates the uncertainty-dependent and sign-dependent effects of the oil market fundamental shocks, namely supply, aggregate demand and oil-specific demand shocks. We do so by first proposing a novel oil uncertainty index that is measured by the stochastic volatility of the unpredictable component of oil prices. We then employ a nonlinear model and find that the all reactions of oil production, real price of oil, and global economic activity to the structural shocks are regime-dependent. Moreover, we extend the model to accommodate positive and negative oil market shocks to examine the possible asymmetric effects. In relation to real economic activity, the effects of oil supply shocks are asymmetric regardless of the state of the market, but oil-specific demand shocks are only asymmetric when oil price uncertainty is high.

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  • Nguyen, Bao H. & Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi & Tran, Trung Duc, 2022. "Uncertainty-dependent and sign-dependent effects of oil market shocks," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jocoma:v:26:y:2022:i:c:s2405851321000404
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jcomm.2021.100207
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil price uncertainty; Oil price shock; Real economic activity; STVAR model; Asymmetric effect;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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