IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/empfin/v75y2024ics0927539823001123.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Climate change concerns and mortgage lending

Author

Listed:
  • Duan, Tinghua
  • Li, Frank Weikai

Abstract

We examine whether beliefs about climate change affect loan officers’ mortgage lending decisions. We show that abnormally high local temperature leads to elevated attention to and belief in climate change in a region. Loan officers approve fewer mortgage applications and originate lower amounts of loans in abnormally warm weather. This effect is stronger among counties heavily exposed to the risk of sea-level rise, during periods of heightened public attention to climate change, and for loans originated by small lenders. Additional tests suggest that the negative relation between temperature and approval rate is not fully explained by changes in local economic conditions and demand for mortgage credit, or deteriorating quality of loan applicants. By contrast, Fintech lenders partially fill the gap in demand left by traditional lenders when local temperature is abnormally high.

Suggested Citation

  • Duan, Tinghua & Li, Frank Weikai, 2024. "Climate change concerns and mortgage lending," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:75:y:2024:i:c:s0927539823001123
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2023.101445
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0927539823001123
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jempfin.2023.101445?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cortés, Kristle & Duchin, Ran & Sosyura, Denis, 2016. "Clouded judgment: The role of sentiment in credit origination," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(2), pages 392-413.
    2. Cortés, Kristle Romero & Strahan, Philip E., 2017. "Tracing out capital flows: How financially integrated banks respond to natural disasters," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(1), pages 182-199.
    3. Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2010. "Climate Shocks and Exports," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 454-459, May.
    4. Olivier Deschênes & Michael Greenstone, 2011. "Climate Change, Mortality, and Adaptation: Evidence from Annual Fluctuations in Weather in the US," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 152-185, October.
    5. Rajan, Uday & Seru, Amit & Vig, Vikrant, 2015. "The failure of models that predict failure: Distance, incentives, and defaults," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 237-260.
    6. Peter D. Howe & Ezra M. Markowitz & Tien Ming Lee & Chia-Ying Ko & Anthony Leiserowitz, 2013. "Global perceptions of local temperature change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(4), pages 352-356, April.
    7. Mathew E. Hauer & Jason M. Evans & Deepak R. Mishra, 2016. "Millions projected to be at risk from sea-level rise in the continental United States," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(7), pages 691-695, July.
    8. Marshall Burke & Solomon M. Hsiang & Edward Miguel, 2015. "Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production," Nature, Nature, vol. 527(7577), pages 235-239, November.
    9. Duc Duy Nguyen & Steven Ongena & Shusen Qi & Vathunyoo Sila, 2022. "Climate Change Risk and the Cost of Mortgage Credit [Does climate change affect real estate prices? Only if you believe in it]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 26(6), pages 1509-1549.
    10. Andreas Fuster & Matthew Plosser & Philipp Schnabl & James Vickery, 2019. "The Role of Technology in Mortgage Lending," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(5), pages 1854-1899.
    11. Stephane Hallegatte & Colin Green & Robert J. Nicholls & Jan Corfee-Morlot, 2013. "Future flood losses in major coastal cities," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(9), pages 802-806, September.
    12. David M. Konisky & Llewelyn Hughes & Charles H. Kaylor, 2016. "Extreme weather events and climate change concern," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(4), pages 533-547, February.
    13. Joshua Graff Zivin & Matthew Neidell, 2014. "Temperature and the Allocation of Time: Implications for Climate Change," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 32(1), pages 1-26.
    14. Buchak, Greg & Matvos, Gregor & Piskorski, Tomasz & Seru, Amit, 2018. "Fintech, regulatory arbitrage, and the rise of shadow banks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(3), pages 453-483.
    15. Riccardo Colacito & Bridget Hoffmann & Toan Phan, 2019. "Temperature and Growth: A Panel Analysis of the United States," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(2-3), pages 313-368, March.
    16. Li, Haoran & Wan, Xibo & Zhang, Wendong, 2020. "How do Firms Respond to Political Tensions? Evidence from Chinese Food Importers," ISU General Staff Papers 202011250800001118, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    17. Darwin Choi & Zhenyu Gao & Wenxi Jiang, 2020. "Attention to Global Warming," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(3), pages 1112-1145.
    18. Amine Ouazad & Matthew E Kahn, 2022. "Mortgage Finance and Climate Change: Securitization Dynamics in the Aftermath of Natural Disasters," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(8), pages 3617-3665.
    19. Zhi Da & Joseph Engelberg & Pengjie Gao, 2011. "In Search of Attention," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(5), pages 1461-1499, October.
    20. Herrnstadt, Evan & Muehlegger, Erich, 2014. "Weather, salience of climate change and congressional voting," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 68(3), pages 435-448.
    21. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2014. "What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 740-798, September.
    22. Olivier Deschênes & Michael Greenstone, 2007. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Output and Random Fluctuations in Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 354-385, March.
    23. David Konisky & Llewelyn Hughes & Charles Kaylor, 2016. "Extreme weather events and climate change concern," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(4), pages 533-547, February.
    24. Bernstein, Asaf & Gustafson, Matthew T. & Lewis, Ryan, 2019. "Disaster on the horizon: The price effect of sea level rise," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(2), pages 253-272.
    25. Munnell, Alicia H. & Geoffrey M. B. Tootell & Lynn E. Browne & James McEneaney, 1996. "Mortgage Lending in Boston: Interpreting HMDA Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(1), pages 25-53, March.
    26. Peter D. Howe & Matto Mildenberger & Jennifer R. Marlon & Anthony Leiserowitz, 2015. "Geographic variation in opinions on climate change at state and local scales in the USA," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(6), pages 596-603, June.
    27. Shashwat Alok & Nitin Kumar & Russ Wermers & Harrison Hong, 2020. "Do Fund Managers Misestimate Climatic Disaster Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(3), pages 1146-1183.
    28. Erwann Michel‐Kerjan & Sabine Lemoyne de Forges & Howard Kunreuther, 2012. "Policy Tenure Under the U.S. National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP)," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(4), pages 644-658, April.
    29. Markus Baldauf & Lorenzo Garlappi & Constantine Yannelis & José Scheinkman, 2020. "Does Climate Change Affect Real Estate Prices? Only If You Believe In It," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(3), pages 1256-1295.
    30. Stefano Giglio & Matteo Maggiori & Krishna Rao & Johannes Stroebel & Andreas Weber & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2021. "Climate Change and Long-Run Discount Rates: Evidence from Real Estate [Abrupt climate change]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(8), pages 3527-3571.
    31. Theresa Kuchler & Basit Zafar, 2019. "Personal Experiences and Expectations about Aggregate Outcomes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(5), pages 2491-2542, October.
    32. Xin Gu & Shan Ying & Weiqiang Zhang & Yewei Tao, 2020. "How Do Firms Respond to COVID-19? First Evidence from Suzhou, China," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(10), pages 2181-2197, August.
    33. Philipp Krueger & Zacharias Sautner & Laura T Starks, 2020. "The Importance of Climate Risks for Institutional Investors," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(3), pages 1067-1111.
    34. Tzioumis, Konstantinos & Gee, Matthew, 2013. "Nonlinear incentives and mortgage officers’ decisions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 436-453.
    35. Teresa A. Myers & Edward W. Maibach & Connie Roser-Renouf & Karen Akerlof & Anthony A. Leiserowitz, 2013. "The relationship between personal experience and belief in the reality of global warming," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(4), pages 343-347, April.
    36. Justin Murfin & Matthew Spiegel & Jose Scheinkman, 2020. "Is the Risk of Sea Level Rise Capitalized in Residential Real Estate?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(3), pages 1217-1255.
    37. Kousky, Carolyn, 2017. "Financing Flood Losses: A Discussion of the National Flood Insurance Program," RFF Working Paper Series dp-17-03, Resources for the Future.
    38. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2012. "Temperature Shocks and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 66-95, July.
    39. Kunreuther, Howard C. & Michel-Kerjan, Erwann O., 2011. "At War with the Weather: Managing Large-Scale Risks in a New Era of Catastrophes," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262516543, December.
    40. Lisa Zaval & Elizabeth A. Keenan & Eric J. Johnson & Elke U. Weber, 2014. "How warm days increase belief in global warming," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(2), pages 143-147, February.
    41. Addoum, Jawad M. & Ng, David T. & Ortiz-Bobea, Ariel, 2023. "Temperature shocks and industry earnings news," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(1), pages 1-45.
    42. Corey Lang, 2014. "Do weather fluctuations cause people to seek information about climate change?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 125(3), pages 291-303, August.
    43. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2019. "Climate Change and the Federal Reserve," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    44. Hong, Harrison & Li, Frank Weikai & Xu, Jiangmin, 2019. "Climate risks and market efficiency," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 208(1), pages 265-281.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Zhang, Xiaoli & Lee, Chi-Chuan, 2024. "Does climate change matter for bank profitability? Evidence from China," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    2. Bellocca, Gian Pietro Enzo & Poncela Blanco, Maria Pilar, 2024. "Extreme temperatures and the profitability of large European firms," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 44217, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    3. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2024. "Attention to climate change and eco-friendly financial-asset prices: A quantile ARDL approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    4. Fátima Sol Murta & Paulo Miguel Gama, 2024. "Sustainability and the domestic credit market: worldwide evidence," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 14(4), pages 827-845, December.
    5. Zanin, Luca & Calabrese, Raffaella & Thorburn, Connor Innes, 2024. "Climate stress testing for mortgage default probability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PB).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Venturini, Alessio, 2022. "Climate change, risk factors and stock returns: A review of the literature," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    2. repec:ecb:ecbdps:202322 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Eszter Baranyai & Ádám Banai, 2022. "Heat projections and mortgage characteristics: evidence from the USA," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 175(3), pages 1-20, December.
    4. Michele Cascarano & Filippo Natoli, 2023. "Temperatures and search: evidence from the housing market," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1419, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. Duc Duy Nguyen & Steven Ongena & Shusen Qi & Vathunyoo Sila, 2022. "Climate Change Risk and the Cost of Mortgage Credit [Does climate change affect real estate prices? Only if you believe in it]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 26(6), pages 1509-1549.
    6. Aguilar-Gomez, Sandra & Gutierrez, Emilio & Heres, David & Jaume, David & Tobal, Martin, 2024. "Thermal stress and financial distress: Extreme temperatures and firms’ loan defaults in Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    7. Zhang, Yaojie & Song, Bingheng & He, Mengxi & Wang, Yudong, 2024. "Abnormal temperature and the cross-section of stock returns in China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    8. Breckenfelder, Johannes & Maćkowiak, Bartosz & Marqués-Ibáñez, David & Olovsson, Conny & Popov, Alexander & Porcellacchia, Davide & Schepens, Glenn, 2023. "The climate and the economy," Working Paper Series 2793, European Central Bank.
    9. Daewoung Choi & Yong Kyu Gam & Hojong Shin, 2023. "Environmental reputation and bank liquidity: Evidence from climate transition," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(7-8), pages 1274-1304, July.
    10. Sitong Yang & Shouwei Li & Xue Rui & Tianxiang Zhao, 2024. "The impact of climate risk on the asset side and liability side of the insurance industry: evidence from China," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 1-51, June.
    11. Justin Contat & Carrie Hopkins & Luis Mejia & Matthew Suandi, 2024. "When climate meets real estate: A survey of the literature," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 52(3), pages 618-659, May.
    12. Chen, Zhenzhu & Li, Li & Tang, Yao, 2024. "Weather, credit, and economic fluctuations: Evidence from China," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 406-422.
    13. Gong, Xu & Liao, Qin, 2024. "Physical climate risk attention and dynamic volatility connectedness among new energy stocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    14. Ge, Xiaowen & Xue, Minggao & Cao, Ruiyi, 2024. "Do Chinese carbon-intensive stocks overreact to climate transition risk? Evidence from the COP26 news," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    15. Kakuho Furukawa & Hibiki Ichiue & Noriyuki Shiraki, 2020. "How Does Climate Change Interact with the Financial System? A Survey," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 20-E-8, Bank of Japan.
    16. Leonardo Bortolan & Atreya Dey & Luca Taschini, 2024. "Volatile Temperatures and Their Effects on Equity Returns and Firm Performance," CESifo Working Paper Series 11438, CESifo.
    17. Filippo Natoli, 2023. "The macroeconomic effects of temperature surprise shocks," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1407, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    18. Galina Hale, 2024. "Climate Disasters and Exchange Rates: Are Beliefs Keeping up with Climate Change?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 72(1), pages 253-291, March.
    19. Drudi, Francesco & Moench, Emanuel & Holthausen, Cornelia & Weber, Pierre-François & Ferrucci, Gianluigi & Setzer, Ralph & Adao, Bernardino & Dées, Stéphane & Alogoskoufis, Spyros & Téllez, Mar Delgad, 2021. "Climate change and monetary policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 271, European Central Bank.
    20. Cepni, Oguzhan & Şensoy, Ahmet & Yılmaz, Muhammed Hasan, 2024. "Climate change exposure and cost of equity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate change; Global warming; Mortgage origination; Temperature anomaly;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G40 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - General
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:75:y:2024:i:c:s0927539823001123. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jempfin .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.