IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/riskan/v32y2012i4p644-658.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Policy Tenure Under the U.S. National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP)

Author

Listed:
  • Erwann Michel‐Kerjan
  • Sabine Lemoyne de Forges
  • Howard Kunreuther

Abstract

In the United States, insurance against flood hazard (inland flooding or storm surge from hurricanes) has been provided mainly through the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) since 1968. The NFIP covers $1.23 trillion of assets today. This article provides the first analysis of flood insurance tenure ever undertaken: that is, the number of years that people keep their flood insurance policy before letting it lapse. Our analysis of the entire portfolio of the NFIP over the period 2001–2009 reveals that the median tenure of new policies during that time is between two and four years; it is also relatively stable over time and levels of flood hazard. Prior flood experience can affect tenure: people who have experienced small flood claims tend to hold onto their insurance longer; people who have experienced large flood claims tend to let their insurance lapse sooner. To overcome the policy and governance challenges posed by homeowners’ inadequate insurance coverage, we discuss policy recommendations that include for banks and government‐sponsored enterprises (GSEs) strengthening their requirements and the introduction of multiyear flood insurance contracts attached to the property, both of which are likely to provide more coverage stability and encourage investments in risk‐reduction measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Erwann Michel‐Kerjan & Sabine Lemoyne de Forges & Howard Kunreuther, 2012. "Policy Tenure Under the U.S. National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP)," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(4), pages 644-658, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:32:y:2012:i:4:p:644-658
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01671.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01671.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01671.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. McClelland, Gary H & Schulze, William D & Coursey, Don L, 1993. "Insurance for Low-Probability Hazards: A Bimodal Response to Unlikely Events," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 95-116, August.
    2. Hogarth, Robin M & Kunreuther, Howard, 1995. "Decision Making under Ignorance: Arguing with Yourself," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 15-36, January.
    3. Erwann O. Michel‐Kerjan & Carolyn Kousky, 2010. "Come Rain or Shine: Evidence on Flood Insurance Purchases in Florida," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 77(2), pages 369-397, June.
    4. David A. Grossman, 1958. "Flood Insurance: Can a Feasible Program Be Created?," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 34(4), pages 352-357.
    5. Kunreuther, Howard C. & Michel-Kerjan, Erwann O., 2011. "At War with the Weather: Managing Large-Scale Risks in a New Era of Catastrophes," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262516543, April.
    6. Colin F. Camerer & Howard Kunreuther, 1989. "Decision processes for low probability events: Policy implications," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 565-592.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hangsuck Lee & Minha Lee & Jimin Hong, 2024. "Optimal insurance for repetitive natural disasters under moral hazard," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 143(3), pages 247-277, December.
    2. Robin L. Dillon & Catherine H. Tinsley & William J. Burns, 2014. "Evolving Risk Perceptions About Near-Miss Terrorist Events," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 11(1), pages 27-42, March.
    3. Osberghaus, Daniel & Reif, Christiane, 2021. "How do different compensation schemes and loss experience affect insurance decisions? Experimental evidence from two independent and heterogeneous samples," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    4. Adachi, Daisuke & Nakata, Hiroyuki & Sawada, Yasuyuki & Sekiguchi, Kunio, 2023. "Adverse selection and moral hazard in corporate insurance markets: Evidence from the 2011 Thailand floods," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 376-386.
    5. Joakim A. Weill, 2023. "Flood Risk Mapping and the Distributional Impacts of Climate Information," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-066, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Daniel R. Petrolia & Craig E. Landry & Keith H. Coble, 2013. "Risk Preferences, Risk Perceptions, and Flood Insurance," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 89(2), pages 227-245.
    7. Carolyn Kousky, 2017. "Disasters as Learning Experiences or Disasters as Policy Opportunities? Examining Flood Insurance Purchases after Hurricanes," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(3), pages 517-530, March.
    8. Randy E. Dumm & David L. Eckles & Charles Nyce & Jacqueline Volkman-Wise, 2017. "Demand for Windstorm Insurance Coverage and the Representative Heuristic," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Theory, Springer;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 42(2), pages 117-139, September.
    9. Shinichi Kamiya & Noriyoshi Yanase, 2019. "Learning from extreme catastrophes," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 85-124, August.
    10. Justin Gallagher & Daniel Hartley, 2017. "Household Finance after a Natural Disaster: The Case of Hurricane Katrina," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 199-228, August.
    11. Duan, Tinghua & Li, Frank Weikai, 2024. "Climate change concerns and mortgage lending," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    12. Donggyu Yi & Hyundo Choi, 2020. "Housing Market Response to New Flood Risk Information and the Impact on Poor Tenant," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 61(1), pages 55-79, June.
    13. Georgic, Will & Klaiber, H. Allen, 2022. "Stocks, flows, and flood insurance: A nationwide analysis of the capitalized impact of annual premium discounts on housing values," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    14. Kousky, Carolyn & Kunreuther, Howard, 2017. "Defining the Roles of the Public and Private Sector in Risk Communication, Risk Reduction, and Risk Transfer," RFF Working Paper Series 17-09, Resources for the Future.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Carolyn Kousky & Erwann Michel-Kerjan, 2017. "Examining Flood Insurance Claims in the United States: Six Key Findings," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 84(3), pages 819-850, September.
    2. Kousky, Carolyn & Kunreuther, Howard C., 2009. "Improving Flood Insurance and Flood Risk Management: Insights from St. Louis, Missouri," RFF Working Paper Series dp-09-07, Resources for the Future.
    3. Mona Ahmadiani & Susana Ferreira & Craig E. Landry, 2019. "Flood Insurance and Risk Reduction: Market Penetration, Coverage, and Mitigation in Coastal North Carolina," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 85(4), pages 1058-1082, April.
    4. Mark Browne & Christian Knoller & Andreas Richter, 2015. "Behavioral bias and the demand for bicycle and flood insurance," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 141-160, April.
    5. Daniel R. Petrolia & Craig E. Landry & Keith H. Coble, 2013. "Risk Preferences, Risk Perceptions, and Flood Insurance," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 89(2), pages 227-245.
    6. David H. Krantz & Howard C. Kunreuther, 2007. "Goals and plans in decision making," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 2, pages 137-168, June.
    7. Botzen, W.J.W. & van den Bergh, J.C.J.M., 2012. "Risk attitudes to low-probability climate change risks: WTP for flood insurance," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 151-166.
    8. Marielle Brunette & Laure Cabantous & Stéphane Couture & Anne Stenger, 2008. "Insurance Demand for Disaster-type Risks and the Separation of Attitudes toward Risk and Ambiguity: an Experimental Study," Working Papers - Cahiers du LEF 2008-05, Laboratoire d'Economie Forestiere, AgroParisTech-INRA.
    9. Howard Kunreuther, 2006. "Disaster Mitigation and Insurance: Learning from Katrina," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 604(1), pages 208-227, March.
    10. Erwann O. Michel-Kerjan, 2010. "Catastrophe Economics: The National Flood Insurance Program," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(4), pages 165-186, Fall.
    11. Dong Wang & Rachel A. Davidson & Joseph E. Trainor & Linda K. Nozick & Jamie Kruse, 2017. "Homeowner purchase of insurance for hurricane-induced wind and flood damage," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 88(1), pages 221-245, August.
    12. repec:cup:judgdm:v:2:y:2007:i::p:137-168 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Howard Kunreuther & Geoffrey Heal, 2012. "Managing Catastrophic Risk," NBER Working Papers 18136, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Howard Kunreuther & Erwann Michel-Kerjan, 2015. "Demand for fixed-price multi-year contracts: Experimental evidence from insurance decisions," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 171-194, October.
    15. Ganderton, Philip T. & Brookshire, David S. & McKee, Michael & Stewart, Steve & Thurston, Hale, 2000. "Buying Insurance for Disaster-Type Risks: Experimental Evidence," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 271-289, May.
    16. repec:cup:judgdm:v:13:y:2018:i:3:p:237-245 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Howard Kunreuther & Mark Pauly, 2006. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: Lessons from Hurricane Katrina," NBER Working Papers 12503, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Erwann Michel-Kerjan, 2013. "Finance des risques catastrophiques. Le marché américain est en plein bouleversement," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 64(4), pages 615-634.
    19. Andrea Morone & Ozlem Ozdemir, 2006. "Valuing Protection against Low Probability, High Loss Risks: Experimental Evidence," Papers on Strategic Interaction 2006-34, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Strategic Interaction Group.
    20. Hallegatte, Stephane & Heal, Geoffrey & Fay, Marianne & Treguer, David, 2011. "From growth to green growth -- a framework," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5872, The World Bank.
    21. Craig E. Landry & Mohammad R. Jahan‐Parvar, 2011. "Flood Insurance Coverage in the Coastal Zone," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 78(2), pages 361-388, June.
    22. Matthew D. Rablen, 2023. "Loss Aversion, Risk Aversion, and the Shape of the Probability Weighting Function," Working Papers 2023013, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:32:y:2012:i:4:p:644-658. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1111/(ISSN)1539-6924 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.