IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/empfin/v67y2022icp217-230.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

US risk premia under emerging markets constraints

Author

Listed:
  • Cavalcante-Filho, Elias
  • Chague, Fernando
  • De-Losso, Rodrigo
  • Giovannetti, Bruno

Abstract

The US equity market is the benchmark for empirical finance and considered the closest example of how an efficient market should behave. On the other hand, divergent results from those observed in the USA are often associated with unreliable and deviations from the efficient market hypothesis. However, how would the US market results behave had the data the same constraints as an emerging market economy? To answer that question, we analyze the market risk premia under typical constraints from emerging equity markets, such as the small number of assets and the short time-series sample available for estimation. We use parameters of time-series length, number of assets, and accounting variables distribution from the Brazilian equity market as an empirical application of our methodology. Surprisingly, we conclude that the US market risk premia convey the same data features as the Brazilian risk premia had they the same time constraints. Then, we evaluate two potential causes of problems in risk premia estimations with small T: (i) small sample bias on betas, and (ii) divergence between ex-post and ex-ante risk premia. Through Monte Carlo simulations, we conclude that for the T around five years, the beta estimates are no longer a problem in terms of premium significance. However, it is necessary to analyze a time-series sample exceeding 40 years to obtain robust and reliable ex-ante risk premia.

Suggested Citation

  • Cavalcante-Filho, Elias & Chague, Fernando & De-Losso, Rodrigo & Giovannetti, Bruno, 2022. "US risk premia under emerging markets constraints," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 217-230.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:67:y:2022:i:c:p:217-230
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2022.03.005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0927539822000299
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jempfin.2022.03.005?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    2. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    3. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:6:p:1975-1999 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Garcia, Rene & Bonomo, Marco, 2001. "Tests of conditional asset pricing models in the Brazilian stock market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 71-90, February.
    5. Lischewski, Judith & Voronkova, Svitlana, 2012. "Size, value and liquidity. Do They Really Matter on an Emerging Stock Market?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 8-25.
    6. Shanken, Jay, 1992. "On the Estimation of Beta-Pricing Models," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(1), pages 1-33.
    7. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    8. Grandes, Martin & Panigo, Demian T. & Pasquini, Ricardo A., 2010. "On the estimation of the cost of equity in Latin America," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 373-389, December.
    9. Chui, Andy C. W. & Wei, K. C. John, 1998. "Book-to-market, firm size, and the turn-of-the-year effect: Evidence from Pacific-Basin emerging markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 6(3-4), pages 275-293, August.
    10. K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 1999. "Local Return Factors and Turnover in Emerging Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1439-1464, August.
    11. Barry, Christopher B. & Goldreyer, Elizabeth & Lockwood, Larry & Rodriguez, Mauricio, 2002. "Robustness of size and value effects in emerging equity markets, 1985-2000," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 1-30, March.
    12. Murakoshi, Vivian Y. & Brito, Ricardo D., 2009. "Fatores comuns de risco de mercado, tamanho, valor e diferenciais de juros nos retornos esperados das ações brasileiras," Insper Working Papers wpe_195, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
    13. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    14. Cakici, Nusret & Fabozzi, Frank J. & Tan, Sinan, 2013. "Size, value, and momentum in emerging market stock returns," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 46-65.
    15. Bai, Jushan & Zhou, Guofu, 2015. "Fama–MacBeth two-pass regressions: Improving risk premia estimates," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 31-40.
    16. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fernando Moraes & Rodrigo De-Losso, 2020. "Risk Factors’ CPDAG Roots and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2020_18, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    2. Fernando Moraes & Rodrigo De-Losso, 2020. "Risk Factor Centrality and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2020_17, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Waszczuk, Antonina, 2013. "A risk-based explanation of return patterns—Evidence from the Polish stock market," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 186-210.
    2. Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2022. "Salience theory and the cross-section of stock returns: International and further evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 689-725.
    3. Qi Shi & Bin Li & Adrian (Wai Kong) Cheung & Richard Chung, 2017. "Augmenting the intertemporal CAPM with inflation: Further evidence from alternative models," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 42(4), pages 653-672, November.
    4. Sudipta Das, 2019. "Asset Pricing Test Using Alternative Sets of Portfolios: Evidence from India," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 26(3), pages 339-354, September.
    5. Foye, James, 2018. "A comprehensive test of the Fama-French five-factor model in emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 199-222.
    6. Tyler Muir & Erkko Etula & Tobias Adrian, 2011. "Broker-Dealer Leverage and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns," 2011 Meeting Papers 1448, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Harshita & Shveta Singh & Surendra S. Yadav, 2018. "Changing Nature of the Value Premium in the Indian Stock Market," Vision, , vol. 22(2), pages 135-143, June.
    8. Fernando Rubio, 2005. "Eficiencia De Mercado, Administracion De Carteras De Fondos Y Behavioural Finance," Finance 0503028, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Jul 2005.
    9. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2013. "Understanding Asset Prices," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2013-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
    10. Zaremba Adam & Konieczka Przemysław, 2017. "Size, Value, and Momentum in Polish Equity Returns: Local or International Factors?," International Journal of Management and Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of World Economy, vol. 53(3), pages 26-47, September.
    11. Asgar Ali & K. N. Badhani, 2021. "Beta-Anomaly: Evidence from the Indian Equity Market," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 28(1), pages 55-78, March.
    12. De Moor, Lieven & Dhaene, Geert & Sercu, Piet, 2015. "On comparing zero-alpha tests across multifactor asset pricing models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(S2), pages 235-240.
    13. Antonina Waszczuk, 2013. "Do local or global risk factors explain the size, value and momentum trading pay-offs on the Warsaw Stock Exchange?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(19), pages 1497-1508, October.
    14. Huang, Huichou & MacDonald, Ronald & Zhao, Yang, 2012. "Global Currency Misalignments, Crash Sensitivity, and Downside Insurance Costs," MPRA Paper 53745, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Nov 2013.
    15. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, December.
    16. Keith Lam & Frank Li, 2008. "The risk premiums of the four-factor asset pricing model in the Hong Kong stock market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(20), pages 1667-1680.
    17. De Moor, Lieven & Sercu, Piet, 2013. "The smallest firm effect: An international study," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 129-155.
    18. Wang, Yuenan & Di Iorio, Amalia, 2007. "The cross section of expected stock returns in the Chinese A-share market," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 335-349, March.
    19. Artmann, Sabine & Finter, Philipp & Kempf, Alexander, 2011. "Determinants of expected stock returns: Large sample evidence from the German market," CFR Working Papers 10-01 [rev.], University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    20. Kim, Jang Ho & Han, Jiwoon & Kang, Taehyeon & Fabozzi, Frank J., 2023. "A machine learning approach for comparing the largest firm effect," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Equity Risk premia; Asset pricing; Multi-factor model; Emerging markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:67:y:2022:i:c:p:217-230. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jempfin .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.