IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/cfrwps/1001r.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Determinants of expected stock returns: Large sample evidence from the German market

Author

Listed:
  • Artmann, Sabine
  • Finter, Philipp
  • Kempf, Alexander

Abstract

This paper conducts a comprehensive asset pricing study based on a unique dataset for the German stock market. For the period 1963 to 2006 we show that value characteristics and momentum explain the cross-section of stock returns. Corresponding factor portfolios have significant premiums across various double-sorted characteristic-based test assets. In a horse race of competing asset pricing models the Fama-French 3-factor model does a poor job in explaining average stock returns. The Carhart 4-factor model performs much better, but a 4-factor model containing an earnings-to-price factor instead of a size factor does even slightly better.

Suggested Citation

  • Artmann, Sabine & Finter, Philipp & Kempf, Alexander, 2011. "Determinants of expected stock returns: Large sample evidence from the German market," CFR Working Papers 10-01 [rev.], University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cfrwps:1001r
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/70130/1/736358048.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    2. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:4:p:1743-1776 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:6:p:1975-1999 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Jagannathan, Ravi & Wang, Zhenyu, 1996. "The Conditional CAPM and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 3-53, March.
    5. Breig, Christoph & Elsas, Ralf, 2009. "Default Risk and Equity Returns: A Comparison of the Bank-Based German and the U.S. Financial System," Discussion Papers in Business Administration 10978, University of Munich, Munich School of Management.
    6. Basu, Sanjoy, 1983. "The relationship between earnings' yield, market value and return for NYSE common stocks : Further evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 129-156, June.
    7. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2008. "Dissecting Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(4), pages 1653-1678, August.
    8. Shanken, Jay, 1992. "On the Estimation of Beta-Pricing Models," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(1), pages 1-33.
    9. Mitchell A. Petersen, 2009. "Estimating Standard Errors in Finance Panel Data Sets: Comparing Approaches," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(1), pages 435-480, January.
    10. Lo, Andrew W & MacKinlay, A Craig, 1990. "Data-Snooping Biases in Tests of Financial Asset Pricing Models," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(3), pages 431-467.
    11. Ralitsa Petkova, 2006. "Do the Fama–French Factors Proxy for Innovations in Predictive Variables?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(2), pages 581-612, April.
    12. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    13. Lewellen, Jonathan & Nagel, Stefan & Shanken, Jay, 2010. "A skeptical appraisal of asset pricing tests," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 175-194, May.
    14. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan, 1990. "Evidence of Predictable Behavior of Security Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 881-898, July.
    15. Michael J. Cooper & Huseyin Gulen & Michael J. Schill, 2008. "Asset Growth and the Cross‐Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(4), pages 1609-1651, August.
    16. repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:2:p:507-28 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:3:p:1235-1258 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. John M. Griffin, 2002. "Are the Fama and French Factors Global or Country Specific?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(3), pages 783-803.
    19. Banz, Rolf W., 1981. "The relationship between return and market value of common stocks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 3-18, March.
    20. Liew, Jimmy & Vassalou, Maria, 2000. "Can book-to-market, size and momentum be risk factors that predict economic growth?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 221-245, August.
    21. K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 1999. "Local Return Factors and Turnover in Emerging Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1439-1464, August.
    22. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    23. van Dijk, Mathijs A., 2011. "Is size dead? A review of the size effect in equity returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 3263-3274.
    24. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    25. Chan, Louis K. C. & Karceski, Jason & Lakonishok, Josef, 1998. "The Risk and Return from Factors," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(2), pages 159-188, June.
    26. Connor, Gregory & Sehgal, Sanjay, 2001. "Tests of the Fama and French model in India," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 25057, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    27. Haugen, Robert A. & Baker, Nardin L., 1996. "Commonality in the determinants of expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 401-439, July.
    28. Basu, S, 1977. "Investment Performance of Common Stocks in Relation to Their Price-Earnings Ratios: A Test of the Efficient Market Hypothesis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(3), pages 663-682, June.
    29. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    30. Stehle Richard, 1997. "Der Size-Effekt am deutschen Aktienmarkt," Zeitschrift für Bankrecht und Bankwirtschaft (ZBB) / Journal of Banking Law and Banking (JBB), RWS Verlag, vol. 9(3), pages 237-260, September.
    31. Andreas Schrimpf & Michael Schröder & Richard Stehle, 2007. "Cross‐sectional Tests of Conditional Asset Pricing Models: Evidence from the German Stock Market," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 13(5), pages 880-907, November.
    32. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1996. "Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 55-84, March.
    33. Viale, Ariel M. & Kolari, James W. & Fraser, Donald R., 2009. "Common risk factors in bank stocks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 464-472, March.
    34. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. "Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
    35. Elsas, Ralf & El-Shaer, Mahmoud & Theissen, Erik, 2003. "Beta and returns revisited: Evidence from the German stock market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 1-18, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tarunika Jain Agrawal & Sanjay Sehgal & Vibhuti Vasishth, 2020. "Firm Attributes, Corporate Fundamentals and Investment Strategies: An Empirical Study for Indian Stock Market," Management and Labour Studies, XLRI Jamshedpur, School of Business Management & Human Resources, vol. 45(3), pages 366-387, August.
    2. Muinde Patrick Mumo, 2017. "The Determinants of Stock Returns in the Emerging Market of Kenya: An Empirical Evidence," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(9), pages 8-21, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Artmann, Sabine & Finter, Philipp & Kempf, Alexander, 2010. "Determinants of expected stock returns: Large sample evidence from the German market," CFR Working Papers 10-01, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    2. Sabine Artmann & Philipp Finter & Alexander Kempf & Stefan Koch & Erik Theissen, 2012. "The Cross-Section of German Stock Returns: New Data and New Evidence," Schmalenbach Business Review (sbr), LMU Munich School of Management, vol. 64(1), pages 20-43, January.
    3. Fernando Rubio, 2005. "Eficiencia De Mercado, Administracion De Carteras De Fondos Y Behavioural Finance," Finance 0503028, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Jul 2005.
    4. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, December.
    5. Waszczuk, Antonina, 2013. "A risk-based explanation of return patterns—Evidence from the Polish stock market," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 186-210.
    6. Amit Goyal, 2012. "Empirical cross-sectional asset pricing: a survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 26(1), pages 3-38, March.
    7. Cederburg, Scott & O’Doherty, Michael S., 2015. "Asset-pricing anomalies at the firm level," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 186(1), pages 113-128.
    8. Christian Walkshäusl & Sebastian Lobe, 2014. "The Alternative Three†Factor Model: An Alternative beyond US Markets?," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 20(1), pages 33-70, January.
    9. Boons, M.F., 2014. "Sorting out commodity and macroeconomic risk in expected stock returns," Other publications TiSEM 1ebdac58-bf37-499d-8835-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    10. De Moor, Lieven & Sercu, Piet, 2013. "The smallest firm effect: An international study," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 129-155.
    11. Kewei Hou & Chen Xue & Lu Zhang, 2017. "Replicating Anomalies," NBER Working Papers 23394, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2010. "The Cross†Section of Expected Stock Returns: What Have We Learnt from the Past Twenty†Five Years of Research?," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 16(1), pages 27-42, January.
    13. Christian Fieberg & Armin Varmaz & Thorsten Poddig, 2016. "Covariances vs. characteristics: what does explain the cross section of the German stock market returns?," Business Research, Springer;German Academic Association for Business Research, vol. 9(1), pages 27-50, April.
    14. Stefano Gubellini, 2014. "Conditioning information and cross-sectional anomalies," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 529-569, October.
    15. Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2022. "Salience theory and the cross-section of stock returns: International and further evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 689-725.
    16. Zura Kakushadze, 2014. "4-Factor Model for Overnight Returns," Papers 1410.5513, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2015.
    17. Stefan Nagel, 2013. "Empirical Cross-Sectional Asset Pricing," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 167-199, November.
    18. Zura Kakushadze & Willie Yu, 2016. "Multifactor Risk Models and Heterotic CAPM," Papers 1602.04902, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2016.
    19. Anton Astakhov & Tomas Havranek & Jiri Novak, 2019. "Firm Size And Stock Returns: A Quantitative Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(5), pages 1463-1492, December.
    20. Hanauer, Matthias X. & Lauterbach, Jochim G., 2019. "The cross-section of emerging market stock returns," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 265-286.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    asset pricing; characteristics; risk factors; multifactor models; Germany;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:cfrwps:1001r. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cfkoede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.