IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ememar/v12y2011i4p460-484.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Financial integration and currency risk premium in CEECs: Evidence from the ICAPM

Author

Listed:
  • Boubakri, Salem
  • Guillaumin, Cyriac

Abstract

This paper aims to study the Central and Eastern European Countries' (CEECs) dynamics of financial integration in the euro area with the prospect of their integration into the European Monetary Union. Our empirical analysis is based, successively, on a MGARCH model with time-varying correlations, a state-space model and a Markov-switching model. The results show that financial integration (i) is not perfect but is increasing and (ii) is linked to currency stability. The growing financial integration in 2007–2009 seems to be rather the result of the shock propagated by the global crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Boubakri, Salem & Guillaumin, Cyriac, 2011. "Financial integration and currency risk premium in CEECs: Evidence from the ICAPM," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 460-484.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ememar:v:12:y:2011:i:4:p:460-484
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2011.08.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1566014111000483
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ememar.2011.08.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Beirne, John & Bijsterbosch, Martin, 2011. "Exchange rate pass-through in central and eastern European EU Member States," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 241-254, March.
    2. De Santis, Giorgio & Gerard, Bruno, 1997. "International Asset Pricing and Portfolio Diversification with Time-Varying Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 1881-1912, December.
    3. Maurel, Mathilde & Boone, Laurence & Babetski, Jan, 2002. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Supply Shocks Asymmetry: The Case of the Accession Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 3408, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Maurel Mathilde, 2004. "Intégration financière et régimes de change dans les pays candidats," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 163(2), pages 17-32.
    5. Utpal Bhattacharya & Hazem Daouk, 2002. "The World Price of Insider Trading," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 75-108, February.
    6. Gerard, Bruno & Thanyalakpark, Kessara & Batten, Jonathan A., 2003. "Are the East Asian markets integrated? Evidence from the ICAPM," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 55(5-6), pages 585-607.
    7. Patrick Artus, 2003. "L'entree des PECO dans la zone euro : quels effets sur le bien-être ?," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 93, pages 37-58.
    8. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 122-150, February.
    9. Vladimir Borgy & Valérie Mignon, 2009. "Taux d’intérêt et marchés boursiers : une analyse empirique de l’intégration financière internationale," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 187(1), pages 105-121.
    10. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Jazbec, Bostjan, 2004. "Real exchange rate dynamics in transition economies," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 83-100, March.
    11. Pierfederico Asdrubali & Bent E. Sørensen & Oved Yosha, 1996. "Channels of Interstate Risk Sharing: United States 1963–1990," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 111(4), pages 1081-1110.
    12. Brana, Sophie & Lahet, Delphine, 2010. "La présence de banques étrangères en Europe de l’Est quels risques financiers ?," Revue d'études comparatives Est-Ouest, Editions NecPlus, vol. 41(01), pages 35-62, March.
    13. Montiel, Peter J, 1994. "Capital Mobility in Developing Countries: Some Measurement Issues and Empirical Estimates," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 8(3), pages 311-350, September.
    14. Garcia, Rene & Perron, Pierre, 1996. "An Analysis of the Real Interest Rate under Regime Shifts," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 111-125, February.
    15. Dumas, Bernard & Harvey, Campbell R. & Ruiz, Pierre, 2003. "Are correlations of stock returns justified by subsequent changes in national outputs?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 777-811, November.
    16. Lorenzo Cappiello & Robert F. Engle & Kevin Sheppard, 2006. "Asymmetric Dynamics in the Correlations of Global Equity and Bond Returns," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 4(4), pages 537-572.
    17. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. "Time-Varying World Market Integration," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 403-444, June.
    18. Davide Furceri & Aleksandra Zdzienicka, 2011. "The real effect of financial crises in the European transition economies," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 19(1), pages 1-25, January.
    19. Dubravko Mihaljek & Marc Klau, 2003. "The Balassa-Samuelson effect in central Europe: a disaggregated analysis," BIS Working Papers 143, Bank for International Settlements.
    20. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2012. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780199641178.
    21. Jérôme Héricourt & Iuliana Matei, 2007. "Transmission de la politique monétaire dans les pays d'E urope centrale et orientale : que savons-nous vraiment ?," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(4), pages 221-238.
    22. Gikas A. Hardouvelis & Dimitrios Malliaropulos & Richard Priestley, 2006. "EMU and European Stock Market Integration," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(1), pages 365-392, January.
    23. Rand, John & Tarp, Finn, 2002. "Business Cycles in Developing Countries: Are They Different?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 2071-2088, December.
    24. Harberger, Arnold C, 1980. "Vignettes on the World Capital Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(2), pages 331-337, May.
    25. Morris Goldstein & Michael Mussa, 1993. "The integration of world capital markets," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 245-330.
    26. Dumas, Bernard & Solnik, Bruno, 1995. "The World Price of Foreign Exchange Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 445-479, June.
    27. Balázs Égert & Ronald MacDonald, 2009. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism In Central And Eastern Europe: Surveying The Surveyable," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(2), pages 277-327, April.
    28. repec:bla:etrans:v:10:y:2002-07:i:2:p:273-309 is not listed on IDEAS
    29. Feldstein, Martin & Horioka, Charles, 1980. "Domestic Saving and International Capital Flows," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(358), pages 314-329, June.
    30. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 1997. "Emerging equity market volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 29-77, January.
    31. Catherine Mathieu & Henri Sterdyniak, 2006. "Les PECO sont-ils les bienvenus dans la zone Euro ?," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01021336, HAL.
    32. Simon van Norden & Huntley Schaller & ), 1995. "Regime Switching in Stock Market Returns," Econometrics 9502002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    33. De Santis, Giorgio & Gerard, Bruno, 1998. "How big is the premium for currency risk?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 375-412, September.
    34. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 1999. "International Asset Allocation with Time-Varying Correlations," NBER Working Papers 7056, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    35. De Santis, Giorgio & Gerard, Bruno & Hillion, Pierre, 2003. "The relevance of currency risk in the EMU," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 55(5-6), pages 427-462.
    36. Ronald McKinnon, 2002. "Optimum currency areas and the European experience," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 10(2), pages 343-364, July.
    37. Karolyi, G. Andrew & Stulz, Rene M., 2003. "Are financial assets priced locally or globally?," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 16, pages 975-1020, Elsevier.
    38. Faruk Balli, 2009. "Spillover effects on government bond yields in euro zone. Does full financial integration exist in European government bond markets?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 33(4), pages 331-363, October.
    39. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    40. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Jazbec, Bostjan & Masten, Igor, 2006. "Exchange rate pass-through in EMU acceding countries: Empirical analysis and policy implications," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 1375-1391, May.
    41. Barr, David G. & Priestley, Richard, 2004. "Expected returns, risk and the integration of international bond markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 71-97, February.
    42. Agnieszka Markiewicz, 2005. "Choice of Exchange Rate Regime in Central and Eastern European Countries: an Empirical Analysis," Working Papers of Department of Economics, Leuven ces0501, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), Department of Economics, Leuven.
    43. Bansal, Ravi & Lundblad, Christian, 2002. "Market efficiency, asset returns, and the size of the risk premium in global equity markets," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 195-237, August.
    44. Kozluk, Tomasz, 2005. "CEEC Accession Countries and the EMU - An Assessment of Relative and Readiness for Euro-Area Membership," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 20, pages 439-474.
    45. Coudert, Virginie & Gex, Mathieu, 2008. "Does risk aversion drive financial crises? Testing the predictive power of empirical indicators," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 167-184, March.
    46. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5124 is not listed on IDEAS
    47. Coudert, V., 2004. "Comment mesurer l’effet Balassa-Samuelson dans les pays d’Europe centrale et orientale ?," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 122, pages 27-48.
    48. repec:dau:papers:123456789/5514 is not listed on IDEAS
    49. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    50. Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. "The World Price of Covariance Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 111-157, March.
    51. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
    52. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1995. "The Mirage of Fixed Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 73-96, Fall.
    53. Hamilton, James D., 1988. "Rational-expectations econometric analysis of changes in regime : An investigation of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 385-423.
    54. Adler, Michael & Qi, Rong, 2003. "Mexico's integration into the North American capital market," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 91-120, June.
    55. Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August.
    56. Griffin, John M & Stulz, Rene M, 2001. "International Competition and Exchange Rate Shocks: A Cross-Country Industry Analysis of Stock Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 215-241.
    57. Daniel Daianu & Radu Vranceanu, 2002. "Opening the Capital Account of Transition Economies: How Much and How Fast," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 511, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    58. Carrieri, Francesca & Errunza, Vihang & Hogan, Ked, 2007. "Characterizing World Market Integration through Time," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(4), pages 915-940, December.
    59. repec:bla:etrans:v:10:y:2002-07:i:2:p:343-364 is not listed on IDEAS
    60. Nektarios Aslanidis, 2010. "Business Cycle Synchronization Between The Ceec And The Euro‐Area: Evidence From Threshold Seemingly Unrelated Regressions," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(6), pages 538-555, December.
    61. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & McDermott, C John & Prasad, Eswar S, 2000. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries: Some Stylized Facts," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 14(2), pages 251-285, May.
    62. Balázs Égert, 2002. "Investigating the Balassa‐Samuelson hypothesis in the transition: Do we understand what we see? A panel study," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 10(2), pages 273-309, July.
    63. Tse, Y K & Tsui, Albert K C, 2002. "A Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity Model with Time-Varying Correlations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 351-362, July.
    64. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/5124 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Karkowska, Renata & Urjasz, Szczepan, 2021. "Connectedness structures of sovereign bond markets in Central and Eastern Europe," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    2. Jonathan A. Batten & Peter Morgan & Peter G. Szilagyi, 2015. "Time Varying Asian Stock Market Integration," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 60(01), pages 1-24.
    3. Lu Yang & Jason Z. Ma & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2018. "Dependence Structures and Systemic Risk of Government Securities Markets in Central and Eastern Europe: A CoVaR-Copula Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-23, January.
    4. Batten, Jonathan A. & Kinateder, Harald & Szilagyi, Peter G. & Wagner, Niklas F., 2018. "Addressing COP21 using a stock and oil market integration index," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 127-136.
    5. Vit Posta, 2012. "Time-Varying Risk Premium in the Czech Capital Market: Did the Market Experience a Structural Shock in 2008–2009?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 62(5), pages 450-470, November.
    6. Chung, Hyunchul & Majerbi, Basma & Rizeanu, Sorin, 2015. "Exchange risk premia and firm characteristics," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 96-125.
    7. Vít Pošta, 2012. "Estimation of the Time-Varying Risk Premium in the Czech Foreign Exchange Market," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2012(1), pages 3-17.
    8. Urbański, Stanisław, 2012. "Multifactor explanations of returns on the Warsaw Stock Exchange in light of the ICAPM," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 552-570.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Guesmi, Khaled & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2011. "How strong is the global integration of emerging market regions? An empirical assessment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2517-2527.
    2. Boubakri, Salem & Guillaumin, Cyriac, 2015. "Regional integration of the East Asian stock markets: An empirical assessment," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 136-160.
    3. Arouri, Mohamed El Hedi & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Pukthuanthong, Kuntara, 2012. "An international CAPM for partially integrated markets: Theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 2473-2493.
    4. Salem Boubakri & Cécile Couharde & Hélène Raymond, 2014. "Financial integration, financial turmoil and risk premia in emerging markets," EconomiX Working Papers 2014-52, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    5. Arouri, Mohamed El Hedi & Foulquier, Philippe, 2012. "Financial market integration: Theory and empirical results," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 382-394.
    6. Boubakri, Salem & Couharde, Cécile & Raymond, Hélène, 2016. "Effects of financial turmoil on financial integration and risk premia in emerging markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 120-138.
    7. Tom A. FEARNLEY, 2002. "Estimation of an International Capital Asset Pricing Model with Stocks and Government Bonds," FAME Research Paper Series rp95, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
    8. Teulon, Frédéric & Guesmi, Khaled & Mankai, Selim, 2014. "Regional stock market integration in Singapore: A multivariate analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 217-224.
    9. Khaled Guesmi & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2013. "Regional integration of stock markets in Southeast Europe," Working Papers 2013-22, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    10. Tom A. FEARNLEY, 2002. "Tests of an International Capital Asset Pricing Model with Stocks and Government Bonds and Regime Switching Prices of Risk and Intercepts," FAME Research Paper Series rp97, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
    11. El Hedi Arouri, Mohamed & Rault, Christophe & Sova, Anamaria & Sova, Robert & Teulon, Frédéric, 2013. "Market structure and the cost of capital," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 664-671.
    12. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-415 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Abid, Ilyes & Kaabia, Olfa & Guesmi, Khaled, 2014. "Stock market integration and risk premium: Empirical evidence for emerging economies of South Asia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 408-416.
    14. Arouri, Mohamed & Teulon, Frédéric & Rault, Christophe, 2013. "Equity risk premium and regional integration," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 79-85.
    15. Francesca Carrieri & Vihang Errunza & Sergei Sarkissian, 2004. "Industry Risk and Market Integration," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(2), pages 207-221, February.
    16. Chambet, Anthony & Gibson, Rajna, 2008. "Financial integration, economic instability and trade structure in emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 654-675, June.
    17. Guesmi, Khaled & Moisseron, Jean-Yves & Teulon, Frédéric, 2014. "Integration versus segmentation in Middle East North Africa Equity Market: Time variations and currency risk," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 204-212.
    18. repec:ipg:wpaper:2013-022 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Mohamed El Hedi Arouri, 2005. "Intégration financière et diversification internationale des portefeuilles," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 168(2), pages 115-132.
    20. Baele, Lieven, 2005. "Volatility Spillover Effects in European Equity Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(2), pages 373-401, June.
    21. Mohamed El Hedi Arouri & Christophe Rault & Ana Maria Sova & Robert Sova & Frédéric Teulon, 2013. "Market Structure and the Cost of Capital," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00798048, HAL.
    22. Qin, Weiping & Cho, Sungjun & Hyde, Stuart, 2022. "Measuring market integration during crisis periods," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    CEECs; Euro area; Currency risk premium; Financial integration; International Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM);
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ememar:v:12:y:2011:i:4:p:460-484. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620356 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.