IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/wpaper/hal-04141291.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Financial integration, financial turmoil and risk premia in emerging markets

Author

Listed:
  • Salem Boubakri

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Cécile Couharde

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Hélène Raymond

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

The aim of this article is to study the dynamics of financial integration and of the risk premia in emerging markets. Accordingly, we estimate a variant of the International Asset Pricing Model (IAPM) developed by Errunza and Losq (1985) and Carrieri et al. (2007), allowing for time-varying stock market integration, in which we include the foreign currency risk. Our sample consists of monthly data for 12 emerging stock markets over the period 1988−2012. We find that the evolution of financial integration is broadly consistent with the de jure measure of capital openness, but much less sticky. Moreover, while the financial integration of emerging stock markets displays an upward trend, it has also registered short-term reversals episodes during crises. The upward trend in financial integration does not reduce the local market risk premium component as much as could be expected, as regional crises strengthen the idiosyncratic character of the risk premium. Finally, the recent global crisis has induced a reassessment of the world market risk premium for all emerging countries, highlighting the global nature of the crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Salem Boubakri & Cécile Couharde & Hélène Raymond, 2014. "Financial integration, financial turmoil and risk premia in emerging markets," Working Papers hal-04141291, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-04141291
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04141291
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.science/hal-04141291/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carrieri, Francesca & Errunza, Vihang & Majerbi, Basma, 2006. "Does Emerging Market Exchange Risk Affect Global Equity Prices?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(3), pages 511-540, September.
    2. Reinhart, Carmen, 2002. "A Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: The Country Histories, 1946-2001," MPRA Paper 13191, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 122-150, February.
    4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48.
    5. Errunza, Vihang & Losq, Etienne, 1985. "International Asset Pricing under Mild Segmentation: Theory and Test," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(1), pages 105-124, March.
    6. Stulz, René M, 1995. "Foreign Equity Investment Restrictions, Capital Flight, and Shareholder Wealth Maximization," CEPR Discussion Papers 1208, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 2000. "Foreign Speculators and Emerging Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 565-613, April.
    8. Lorenzo Cappiello & Robert F. Engle & Kevin Sheppard, 2006. "Asymmetric Dynamics in the Correlations of Global Equity and Bond Returns," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 4(4), pages 537-572.
    9. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    10. Dumas, Bernard & Solnik, Bruno, 1995. "The World Price of Foreign Exchange Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 445-479, June.
    11. Jorion, Philippe, 1991. "The Pricing of Exchange Rate Risk in the Stock Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(3), pages 363-376, September.
    12. de Jong, Frank & de Roon, Frans A., 2005. "Time-varying market integration and expected returns in emerging markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(3), pages 583-613, December.
    13. Vihang Errunza & Ked Hogan & Mao‐Wei Hung, 1999. "Can the Gains from International Diversification Be Achieved without Trading Abroad?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(6), pages 2075-2107, December.
    14. Karolyi, G. Andrew & Stulz, Rene M., 2003. "Are financial assets priced locally or globally?," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 16, pages 975-1020, Elsevier.
    15. Cooper, Ian A. & Kaplanis, Evi, 2000. "Partially segmented international capital markets and international capital budgeting," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 309-329, June.
    16. G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), 2003. "Handbook of the Economics of Finance," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 1.
    17. Engle, Robert F & Ng, Victor K, 1993. "Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1749-1778, December.
    18. Chaieb, Ines & Errunza, Vihang, 2007. "International asset pricing under segmentation and PPP deviations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 543-578, November.
    19. Gikas A. Hardouvelis & Dimitrios Malliaropulos & Richard Priestley, 2006. "EMU and European Stock Market Integration," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(1), pages 365-392, January.
    20. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Christian T. Lundblad & Stephan Siegel, 2011. "What Segments Equity Markets?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(12), pages 3841-3890.
    21. Dumas, Bernard & Harvey, Campbell R. & Ruiz, Pierre, 2003. "Are correlations of stock returns justified by subsequent changes in national outputs?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 777-811, November.
    22. Phylaktis, Kate & Ravazzolo, Fabiola, 2004. "Currency risk in emerging equity markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 317-339, September.
    23. Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August.
    24. Carrieri, Francesca & Errunza, Vihang & Hogan, Ked, 2007. "Characterizing World Market Integration through Time," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(4), pages 915-940, December.
    25. G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), 2003. "Handbook of the Economics of Finance," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 2.
    26. Tse, Y K & Tsui, Albert K C, 2002. "A Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity Model with Time-Varying Correlations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 351-362, July.
    27. Gerard, Bruno & Thanyalakpark, Kessara & Batten, Jonathan A., 2003. "Are the East Asian markets integrated? Evidence from the ICAPM," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 55(5-6), pages 585-607.
    28. Domowitz, Ian & Glen, Jack & Madhavan, Ananth, 1997. "Market Segmentation and Stock Prices: Evidence from an Emerging Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 1059-1085, July.
    29. repec:bla:jfinan:v:44:y:1989:i:4:p:1025-37 is not listed on IDEAS
    30. Phylaktis, Kate & Ravazzolo, Fabiola, 2002. "Measuring financial and economic integration with equity prices in emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 879-903, November.
    31. Raymond Kan & Cesare Robotti & Jay Shanken, 2013. "Pricing Model Performance and the Two‐Pass Cross‐Sectional Regression Methodology," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(6), pages 2617-2649, December.
    32. Black, Fischer, 1974. "International capital market equilibrium with investment barriers," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(4), pages 337-352, December.
    33. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. "Time-Varying World Market Integration," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 403-444, June.
    34. De Santis, Giorgio & Gerard, Bruno, 1998. "How big is the premium for currency risk?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 375-412, September.
    35. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 2002. "Research in emerging markets finance: looking to the future," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 429-448, December.
    36. Eun, Cheol S & Janakiramanan, S, 1986. "A Model of International Asset Pricing with a Constraint on the Foreign Equity Ownership," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(4), pages 897-914, September.
    37. Bailey, Warren & Chung, Y. Peter, 1995. "Exchange Rate Fluctuations, Political Risk, and Stock Returns: Some Evidence from an Emerging Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(4), pages 541-561, December.
    38. Geert Bekaert & Campbell Harvey & Christian T. Lundblad, 2003. "Equity market liberalization in emerging markets," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 85(Jul), pages 53-74.
    39. Stulz, Rene M & Wasserfallen, Walter, 1995. "Foreign Equity Investment Restrictions, Capital Flight, and Shareholder Wealth Maximization: Theory and Evidence," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(4), pages 1019-1057.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rui Menezes & Sonia Bentes, 2016. "Hysteresis and Duration Dependence of Financial Crises in the US: Evidence from 1871-2016," Papers 1610.00259, arXiv.org.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Boubakri, Salem & Couharde, Cécile & Raymond, Hélène, 2016. "Effects of financial turmoil on financial integration and risk premia in emerging markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 120-138.
    2. Guesmi, Khaled & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2011. "How strong is the global integration of emerging market regions? An empirical assessment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2517-2527.
    3. Arouri, Mohamed El Hedi & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Pukthuanthong, Kuntara, 2012. "An international CAPM for partially integrated markets: Theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 2473-2493.
    4. Boubakri, Salem & Guillaumin, Cyriac, 2011. "Financial integration and currency risk premium in CEECs: Evidence from the ICAPM," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 460-484.
    5. Abid, Ilyes & Kaabia, Olfa & Guesmi, Khaled, 2014. "Stock market integration and risk premium: Empirical evidence for emerging economies of South Asia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 408-416.
    6. Lau, Sie Ting & Ng, Lilian & Zhang, Bohui, 2010. "The world price of home bias," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 191-217, August.
    7. Lehkonen, Heikki & Heimonen, Kari, 2014. "Timescale-dependent stock market comovement: BRICs vs. developed markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 90-103.
    8. Arouri, Mohamed El Hedi & Foulquier, Philippe, 2012. "Financial market integration: Theory and empirical results," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 382-394.
    9. Andrade, Sandro C., 2009. "A model of asset pricing under country risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 671-695, June.
    10. Chaieb, Ines & Errunza, Vihang, 2007. "International asset pricing under segmentation and PPP deviations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 543-578, November.
    11. El Hedi Arouri, Mohamed & Rault, Christophe & Sova, Anamaria & Sova, Robert & Teulon, Frédéric, 2013. "Market structure and the cost of capital," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 664-671.
    12. Saleem, Kashif & Vaihekoski, Mika, 2010. "Time-varying global and local sources of market and currency risks in Russian stock market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 686-697, October.
    13. Karen K. Lewis, 2011. "Global Asset Pricing," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 435-466, December.
    14. Teulon, Frédéric & Guesmi, Khaled & Mankai, Selim, 2014. "Regional stock market integration in Singapore: A multivariate analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 217-224.
    15. Mohamed El Hedi Arouri & Christophe Rault & Ana Maria Sova & Robert Sova & Frédéric Teulon, 2013. "Market Structure and the Cost of Capital," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00798048, HAL.
    16. Tai, Chu-Sheng, 2007. "Market integration and contagion: Evidence from Asian emerging stock and foreign exchange markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 264-283, December.
    17. Jung, Chan Shik & Lee, Dong Wook & Park, Kyung Suh, 2009. "Can investor heterogeneity be used to explain the cross-section of average stock returns in emerging markets?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 648-670, June.
    18. Bartram, Sohnke M. & Taylor, Stephen J. & Wang, Yaw-Huei, 2007. "The Euro and European financial market dependence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1461-1481, May.
    19. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 2003. "Emerging markets finance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1-2), pages 3-56, February.
    20. Alotaibi, Abdullah R. & Mishra, Anil V., 2017. "Time varying international financial integration for GCC stock markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 66-78.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    De facto financial integration; emerging markets; IAPM; risk premium.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-04141291. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.