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How strong is the global integration of emerging market regions? An empirical assessment

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  • Khaled Guesmi

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Duc Khuong Nguyen

Abstract

In recent years, various emerging market regions have actively taken part in the movements of globalization and world market integration. However, the process of financial integration appears to vary over time and differs significantly across emerging market regions. This paper attempts to evaluate the time-varying integration of emerging markets from a regional perspective (Asia, Latin America, Middle East, and Southeast Europe) based on a conditional version of the International Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM) with DCC-GARCH parameters that allows for dynamic changes in the degree of market integration, global market risk premium, regional exchange-rate risk premium, and local market risk premium. Overall, our findings reveal several interesting facts. First, the time-varying degree of integration of four emerging regions, satisfactorily explained by the regional level of trade openness and the term premium of US interest rates, has recently tended to increase, but these markets still remain substantially segmented from the world market. Second, the local market risk premium is found to explain more than 50% of the total risk premium for emerging market returns. Finally, we show that conditional correlations usually underestimate and overstate the measure of time-varying market integration. The empirical results of this study have some important implications for both global investors and policy makers with respect to dedicated portfolio investments in emerging markets and policy adjustments.

Suggested Citation

  • Khaled Guesmi & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2011. "How strong is the global integration of emerging market regions? An empirical assessment," Working Papers hal-04141010, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-04141010
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04141010
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    time-varying integration; emerging markets; ICAPM; risk premium; DCC-GARCH;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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