IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ejores/v250y2016i3p979-989.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Risk neutral and risk averse approaches to multistage renewable investment planning under uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Bruno, Sergio
  • Ahmed, Shabbir
  • Shapiro, Alexander
  • Street, Alexandre

Abstract

Strategies for investing in renewable energy projects present high risks associated with generation and price volatility and dynamics. Existing approaches for determining optimal strategies are based on real options theory, that often simplify the uncertainty process, or on stochastic programming approaches, that simplify the dynamic aspects. In this paper, we bridge the gap between these approaches by developing a multistage stochastic programming approach that includes real options such as postponing, hedging with fixed (forward) contracts and combination with other sources. The proposed model is solved by a procedure based on the Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming (SDDP) method. The framework is extended to the risk averse setting. A specific case study in investment in hydro and wind projects in the Brazilian market is used to illustrate that the investment strategies generated by the proposed approach are efficient.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruno, Sergio & Ahmed, Shabbir & Shapiro, Alexander & Street, Alexandre, 2016. "Risk neutral and risk averse approaches to multistage renewable investment planning under uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 250(3), pages 979-989.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:250:y:2016:i:3:p:979-989
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2015.10.013
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0377221715009200
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ejor.2015.10.013?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shapiro, Alexander & Tekaya, Wajdi & da Costa, Joari Paulo & Soares, Murilo Pereira, 2013. "Risk neutral and risk averse Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming method," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 224(2), pages 375-391.
    2. Shapiro, Alexander, 2011. "Analysis of stochastic dual dynamic programming method," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 209(1), pages 63-72, February.
    3. Unknown, 2005. "Forward," 2005 Conference: Slovenia in the EU - Challenges for Agriculture, Food Science and Rural Affairs, November 10-11, 2005, Moravske Toplice, Slovenia 183804, Slovenian Association of Agricultural Economists (DAES).
    4. Gerd Infanger (ed.), 2011. "Stochastic Programming," International Series in Operations Research and Management Science, Springer, number 978-1-4419-1642-6.
    5. Alexandre Street, 2010. "On the Conditional Value-at-Risk probability-dependent utility function," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 68(1), pages 49-68, February.
    6. Boomsma, Trine Krogh & Meade, Nigel & Fleten, Stein-Erik, 2012. "Renewable energy investments under different support schemes: A real options approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 220(1), pages 225-237.
    7. J. Bonnans & Zhihao Cen & Thibault Christel, 2012. "Energy contracts management by stochastic programming techniques," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 200(1), pages 199-222, November.
    8. Raimund M. Kovacevic & Georg Ch. Pflug & Maria Teresa Vespucci (ed.), 2013. "Handbook of Risk Management in Energy Production and Trading," International Series in Operations Research and Management Science, Springer, edition 127, number 978-1-4614-9035-7.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zheng, Wei & Li, Bo & Song, Dong-Ping, 2017. "Effects of risk-aversion on competing shipping lines’ pricing strategies with uncertain demands," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 337-356.
    2. Mahmutoğulları, Ali İrfan & Çavuş, Özlem & Aktürk, M. Selim, 2018. "Bounds on risk-averse mixed-integer multi-stage stochastic programming problems with mean-CVaR," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 266(2), pages 595-608.
    3. Abate, Arega Getaneh & Riccardi, Rossana & Ruiz, Carlos, 2022. "Contract design in electricity markets with high penetration of renewables: A two-stage approach," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    4. Golmohammadi, Amirmohsen & Hassini, Elkafi, 2019. "Capacity, pricing and production under supply and demand uncertainties with an application in agriculture," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 275(3), pages 1037-1049.
    5. Assereto, Martina & Byrne, Julie, 2021. "No real option for solar in Ireland: A real option valuation of utility scale solar investment in Ireland," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    6. Chen, J.J. & Wu, Q.H. & Zhang, L.L. & Wu, P.Z., 2017. "Multi-objective mean–variance–skewness model for nonconvex and stochastic optimal power flow considering wind power and load uncertainties," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 263(2), pages 719-732.
    7. Zheng Liu & Qi Xu & Kun Yang, 2018. "Optimal Independent Pricing Strategies of Dual-Channel Supply Chain Based on Risk-Aversion Attitudes," Asia-Pacific Journal of Operational Research (APJOR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 35(02), pages 1-17, April.
    8. Arega Getaneh Abate & Rossana Riccardi & Carlos Ruiz, 2022. "Contract design in electricity markets with high penetration of renewables: A two-stage approach," Papers 2201.09927, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2022.
    9. Wang, Moran & Guo, Xiaolong & Wang, Shouyang, 2022. "Financial hedging in two-stage sustainable commodity supply chains," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 303(2), pages 803-818.
    10. Taheri, S. Saeid & Kazempour, Jalal & Seyedshenava, Seyedjalal, 2017. "Transmission expansion in an oligopoly considering generation investment equilibrium," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 55-62.
    11. Niina Helistö & Juha Kiviluoma & Hannele Holttinen & Jose Daniel Lara & Bri‐Mathias Hodge, 2019. "Including operational aspects in the planning of power systems with large amounts of variable generation: A review of modeling approaches," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(5), September.
    12. Yang, Nan & Xiong, Zhendong & Ding, Li & Liu, Yikui & Wu, Lei & Liu, Zhao & Shen, Xun & Zhu, Binxin & Li, Zhenhua & Huang, Yuehua, 2024. "A game-based power system planning approach considering real options and coordination of all types of participants," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 312(C).
    13. Skolfield, J. Kyle & Escobedo, Adolfo R., 2022. "Operations research in optimal power flow: A guide to recent and emerging methodologies and applications," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 300(2), pages 387-404.
    14. Ritzenhofen, Ingmar & Birge, John R. & Spinler, Stefan, 2016. "The structural impact of renewable portfolio standards and feed-in tariffs on electricity markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 255(1), pages 224-242.
    15. Talari, Saber & Shafie-khah, Miadreza & Osório, Gerardo J. & Aghaei, Jamshid & Catalão, João P.S., 2018. "Stochastic modelling of renewable energy sources from operators' point-of-view: A survey," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P2), pages 1953-1965.
    16. Davi Valladão & Thuener Silva & Marcus Poggi, 2019. "Time-consistent risk-constrained dynamic portfolio optimization with transactional costs and time-dependent returns," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 282(1), pages 379-405, November.
    17. Shubin Wang & Weijie Li & Hasan Dincer & Serhat Yuksel, 2019. "Recognitive Approach to the Energy Policies and Investments in Renewable Energy Resources via the Fuzzy Hybrid Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-17, November.
    18. Àlex Alonso-Travesset & Diederik Coppitters & Helena Martín & Jordi de la Hoz, 2023. "Economic and Regulatory Uncertainty in Renewable Energy System Design: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-30, January.
    19. Nadarajah, Selvaprabu & Secomandi, Nicola, 2023. "A review of the operations literature on real options in energy," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 309(2), pages 469-487.
    20. Jonas Hinker & Thomas Wohlfahrt & Emily Drewing & Sergio Felipe Contreras Paredes & Daniel Mayorga González & Johanna M. A. Myrzik, 2018. "Adaptable Energy Systems Integration by Modular, Standardized and Scalable System Architectures: Necessities and Prospects of Any Time Transition," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-17, March.
    21. Pineda, Salvador & Boomsma, Trine K. & Wogrin, Sonja, 2018. "Renewable generation expansion under different support schemes: A stochastic equilibrium approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 266(3), pages 1086-1099.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Schur, Rouven & Gönsch, Jochen & Hassler, Michael, 2019. "Time-consistent, risk-averse dynamic pricing," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 277(2), pages 587-603.
    2. Löhndorf, Nils & Wozabal, David, 2021. "Gas storage valuation in incomplete markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 288(1), pages 318-330.
    3. Mahmutoğulları, Ali İrfan & Çavuş, Özlem & Aktürk, M. Selim, 2018. "Bounds on risk-averse mixed-integer multi-stage stochastic programming problems with mean-CVaR," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 266(2), pages 595-608.
    4. Löhndorf, Nils & Shapiro, Alexander, 2019. "Modeling time-dependent randomness in stochastic dual dynamic programming," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 273(2), pages 650-661.
    5. Powell, Warren B., 2019. "A unified framework for stochastic optimization," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 275(3), pages 795-821.
    6. Mateus Waga & Davi Valladão & Alexandre Street & Thuener Silva, 2022. "Disentangling Shareholder Risk Aversion from Leverage-Dependent Borrowing Cost on Corporate Policies," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 60(3), pages 1-24, October.
    7. de Queiroz, Anderson Rodrigo, 2016. "Stochastic hydro-thermal scheduling optimization: An overview," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 382-395.
    8. Darmani, Anna & Rickne, Annika & Hidalgo, Antonio & Arvidsson, Niklas, 2016. "When outcomes are the reflection of the analysis criteria: A review of the tradable green certificate assessments," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 372-381.
    9. Davi Valladão & Thuener Silva & Marcus Poggi, 2019. "Time-consistent risk-constrained dynamic portfolio optimization with transactional costs and time-dependent returns," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 282(1), pages 379-405, November.
    10. Rudloff, Birgit & Street, Alexandre & Valladão, Davi M., 2014. "Time consistency and risk averse dynamic decision models: Definition, interpretation and practical consequences," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 234(3), pages 743-750.
    11. Nadarajah, Selvaprabu & Secomandi, Nicola, 2023. "A review of the operations literature on real options in energy," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 309(2), pages 469-487.
    12. Murwan Siddig & Yongjia Song, 2022. "Adaptive partition-based SDDP algorithms for multistage stochastic linear programming with fixed recourse," Computational Optimization and Applications, Springer, vol. 81(1), pages 201-250, January.
    13. Dias, Bruno Henriques & Tomim, Marcelo Aroca & Marcato, André Luís Marques & Ramos, Tales Pulinho & Brandi, Rafael Bruno S. & Junior, Ivo Chaves da Silva & Filho, João Alberto Passos, 2013. "Parallel computing applied to the stochastic dynamic programming for long term operation planning of hydrothermal power systems," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 229(1), pages 212-222.
    14. Zhou, Shaorui & Zhang, Hui & Shi, Ning & Xu, Zhou & Wang, Fan, 2020. "A new convergent hybrid learning algorithm for two-stage stochastic programs," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 283(1), pages 33-46.
    15. Guigues, Vincent & Shapiro, Alexander & Cheng, Yi, 2023. "Duality and sensitivity analysis of multistage linear stochastic programs," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 308(2), pages 752-767.
    16. Wim Ackooij & Welington Oliveira & Yongjia Song, 2019. "On level regularization with normal solutions in decomposition methods for multistage stochastic programming problems," Computational Optimization and Applications, Springer, vol. 74(1), pages 1-42, September.
    17. Escudero, Laureano F. & Monge, Juan F. & Rodríguez-Chía, Antonio M., 2020. "On pricing-based equilibrium for network expansion planning. A multi-period bilevel approach under uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 287(1), pages 262-279.
    18. Lorenzo Reus & Rodolfo Prado, 2022. "Need to Meet Investment Goals? Track Synthetic Indexes with the SDDP Method," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 60(1), pages 47-69, June.
    19. W. Ackooij & X. Warin, 2020. "On conditional cuts for stochastic dual dynamic programming," EURO Journal on Computational Optimization, Springer;EURO - The Association of European Operational Research Societies, vol. 8(2), pages 173-199, June.
    20. Liu, Rui Peng & Shapiro, Alexander, 2020. "Risk neutral reformulation approach to risk averse stochastic programming," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 286(1), pages 21-31.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:250:y:2016:i:3:p:979-989. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eor .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.