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Risk neutral and risk averse approaches to multistage renewable investment planning under uncertainty

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  • Bruno, Sergio
  • Ahmed, Shabbir
  • Shapiro, Alexander
  • Street, Alexandre

Abstract

Strategies for investing in renewable energy projects present high risks associated with generation and price volatility and dynamics. Existing approaches for determining optimal strategies are based on real options theory, that often simplify the uncertainty process, or on stochastic programming approaches, that simplify the dynamic aspects. In this paper, we bridge the gap between these approaches by developing a multistage stochastic programming approach that includes real options such as postponing, hedging with fixed (forward) contracts and combination with other sources. The proposed model is solved by a procedure based on the Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming (SDDP) method. The framework is extended to the risk averse setting. A specific case study in investment in hydro and wind projects in the Brazilian market is used to illustrate that the investment strategies generated by the proposed approach are efficient.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruno, Sergio & Ahmed, Shabbir & Shapiro, Alexander & Street, Alexandre, 2016. "Risk neutral and risk averse approaches to multistage renewable investment planning under uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 250(3), pages 979-989.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:250:y:2016:i:3:p:979-989
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2015.10.013
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    9. Shubin Wang & Weijie Li & Hasan Dincer & Serhat Yuksel, 2019. "Recognitive Approach to the Energy Policies and Investments in Renewable Energy Resources via the Fuzzy Hybrid Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-17, November.
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    12. Chen, J.J. & Wu, Q.H. & Zhang, L.L. & Wu, P.Z., 2017. "Multi-objective mean–variance–skewness model for nonconvex and stochastic optimal power flow considering wind power and load uncertainties," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 263(2), pages 719-732.
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    14. Nadarajah, Selvaprabu & Secomandi, Nicola, 2023. "A review of the operations literature on real options in energy," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 309(2), pages 469-487.
    15. Arega Getaneh Abate & Rossana Riccardi & Carlos Ruiz, 2022. "Contract design in electricity markets with high penetration of renewables: A two-stage approach," Papers 2201.09927, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2022.
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    18. Taheri, S. Saeid & Kazempour, Jalal & Seyedshenava, Seyedjalal, 2017. "Transmission expansion in an oligopoly considering generation investment equilibrium," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 55-62.
    19. Niina Helistö & Juha Kiviluoma & Hannele Holttinen & Jose Daniel Lara & Bri‐Mathias Hodge, 2019. "Including operational aspects in the planning of power systems with large amounts of variable generation: A review of modeling approaches," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(5), September.
    20. Pineda, Salvador & Boomsma, Trine K. & Wogrin, Sonja, 2018. "Renewable generation expansion under different support schemes: A stochastic equilibrium approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 266(3), pages 1086-1099.

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