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On the fallacy of averages in project risk management

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  • Elmaghraby, Salah E.

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  • Elmaghraby, Salah E., 2005. "On the fallacy of averages in project risk management," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 165(2), pages 307-313, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:165:y:2005:i:2:p:307-313
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. V. Krishnan & Karl T. Ulrich, 2001. "Product Development Decisions: A Review of the Literature," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(1), pages 1-21, January.
    2. Shantanu Bhattacharya & V. Krishnan & Vijay Mahajan, 1998. "Managing New Product Definition in Highly Dynamic Environments," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(11-Part-2), pages 50-64, November.
    3. Arnd Huchzermeier & Christoph H. Loch, 2001. "Project Management Under Risk: Using the Real Options Approach to Evaluate Flexibility in R...D," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(1), pages 85-101, January.
    4. Herroelen, Willy & Leus, Roel, 2004. "The construction of stable project baseline schedules," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 156(3), pages 550-565, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wendi Tian & Erik Demeulemeester, 2014. "Railway scheduling reduces the expected project makespan over roadrunner scheduling in a multi-mode project scheduling environment," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 213(1), pages 271-291, February.
    2. Zhang, Jingwen & Elmaghraby, Salah E., 2014. "The relevance of the “alphorn of uncertainty” to the financial management of projects under uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 238(1), pages 65-76.
    3. Öncü Hazir & Gündüz Ulusoy, 2020. "A classification and review of approaches and methods for modeling uncertainty in projects," Post-Print hal-02898162, HAL.
    4. Carlo Meloni & Marco Pranzo, 2020. "Expected shortfall for the makespan in activity networks under imperfect information," Flexible Services and Manufacturing Journal, Springer, vol. 32(3), pages 668-692, September.
    5. Stefan Creemers & Erik Demeulemeester & Stijn Vonder, 2014. "A new approach for quantitative risk analysis," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 213(1), pages 27-65, February.
    6. Wiesemann, Wolfram & Kuhn, Daniel & Rustem, Berç, 2010. "Maximizing the net present value of a project under uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 202(2), pages 356-367, April.
    7. Mahtab Afsari & Hesam Javadi Vasigh, 2016. "A Mathematical Modeling for Delivery Time in Dynamic PERT Networks," Modern Applied Science, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(3), pages 214-214, March.
    8. Sobel, Matthew J. & Szmerekovsky, Joseph G. & Tilson, Vera, 2009. "Scheduling projects with stochastic activity duration to maximize expected net present value," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 198(3), pages 697-705, November.
    9. Bordley, Robert F. & Keisler, Jeffrey M. & Logan, Tom M., 2019. "Managing projects with uncertain deadlines," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 274(1), pages 291-302.
    10. Yangyang Liang & Nanfang Cui & Tian Wang & Erik Demeulemeester, 2019. "Robust resource-constrained max-NPV project scheduling with stochastic activity duration," OR Spectrum: Quantitative Approaches in Management, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research e.V., vol. 41(1), pages 219-254, March.
    11. Charis Ntakolia & Michalis Douloumpekis & Christos Papaleonidas & Violetta Tsiampa & Dimitrios V. Lyridis, 2023. "A Stochastic Modelling and Optimization for the Design of an LNG Refuelling System in the Piraeus Port Region," SN Operations Research Forum, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 1-32, September.
    12. Godinho, Pedro & Branco, Fernando G., 2012. "Adaptive policies for multi-mode project scheduling under uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 216(3), pages 553-562.
    13. Azaron, Amir & Fatemi Ghomi, S.M.T., 2008. "Lower bound for the mean project completion time in dynamic PERT networks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 186(1), pages 120-127, April.
    14. E. Demeulemeester & F. Deblaere & J. Herbots & O. Lambrechts & S. Van de Vonder, 2007. "A Multi-level Approach to Project Management under Uncertainty," Review of Business and Economic Literature, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), Review of Business and Economic Literature, vol. 0(3), pages 391-409.
    15. Meloni, Carlo & Pranzo, Marco & Samà, Marcella, 2022. "Evaluation of VaR and CVaR for the makespan in interval valued blocking job shops," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    16. Yousry Abdelkader, 2010. "Adjustment of the moments of the project completion times when activity times are exponentially distributed," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 181(1), pages 503-514, December.
    17. KIlIç, Murat & Ulusoy, Gündüz & Serifoglu, Funda Sivrikaya, 2008. "A bi-objective genetic algorithm approach to risk mitigation in project scheduling," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(1), pages 202-216, March.
    18. Trietsch, Dan & Mazmanyan, Lilit & Gevorgyan, Lilit & Baker, Kenneth R., 2012. "Modeling activity times by the Parkinson distribution with a lognormal core: Theory and validation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 216(2), pages 386-396.
    19. Tony Chen & Ted Klastorin & Michael R. Wagner, 2015. "Incentive Contracts in Serial Stochastic Projects," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 17(3), pages 290-301, July.
    20. Meloni, Carlo & Pranzo, Marco & Samà, Marcella, 2021. "Risk of delay evaluation in real-time train scheduling with uncertain dwell times," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    21. Gary Mitchell, 2010. "On Calculating Activity Slack in Stochastic Project Networks," American Journal of Economics and Business Administration, Science Publications, vol. 2(1), pages 78-85, March.
    22. Hazır, Öncü & Ulusoy, Gündüz, 2020. "A classification and review of approaches and methods for modeling uncertainty in projects," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    23. Chien-Ming Chen & Joe Zhu, 2011. "Efficient Resource Allocation via Efficiency Bootstraps: An Application to R&D Project Budgeting," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 59(3), pages 729-741, June.

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