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Heterogeneous treatment effect bounds under sample selection with an application to the effects of social media on political polarization

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  • Heiler, Phillip

Abstract

We propose a method for estimation and inference for bounds for heterogeneous causal effect parameters in general sample selection models where the treatment can affect whether an outcome is observed and no exclusion restrictions are available. The method provides conditional effect bounds as functions of policy relevant pre-treatment variables. It allows for conducting valid statistical inference on the unidentified conditional effects. We use a flexible debiased/double machine learning approach that can accommodate non-linear functional forms and high-dimensional confounders. Easily verifiable high-level conditions for estimation, misspecification robust confidence intervals, and uniform confidence bands are provided as well. We re-analyze data from a large scale field experiment on Facebook on counter-attitudinal news subscription with attrition. Our method yields substantially tighter effect bounds compared to conventional methods and suggests depolarization effects for younger users.

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  • Heiler, Phillip, 2024. "Heterogeneous treatment effect bounds under sample selection with an application to the effects of social media on political polarization," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 244(1).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:244:y:2024:i:1:s030440762400201x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2024.105856
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    Cited by:

    1. Ying-Ying Lee & Chu-An Liu, 2024. "Lee Bounds with a Continuous Treatment in Sample Selection," Papers 2411.04312, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2025.
    2. Phillip Heiler & Michael C. Knaus, 2021. "Effect or Treatment Heterogeneity? Policy Evaluation with Aggregated and Disaggregated Treatments," Papers 2110.01427, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.
    3. Phillip Heiler & Asbj{o}rn Kaufmann & Bezirgen Veliyev, 2024. "Treatment Evaluation at the Intensive and Extensive Margins," Papers 2412.11179, arXiv.org.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Affective polarization; Debiased/double machine learning; Effect bounds; Facebook; Partial identification;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • L82 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Entertainment; Media

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