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Bounds on treatment effects on transitions

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  • Vikström, Johan
  • Ridder, Geert
  • Weidner, Martin

Abstract

This paper considers the identification of treatment effects on conditional transition probabilities. We show that even under random assignment only the instantaneous average treatment effect is point identified. Since treated and control units drop out at different rates, randomization only ensures the comparability of treatment and controls at the time of randomization, so that long-run average treatment effects are not point identified. Instead, we derive bounds on these average effects. Our bounds do not impose (semi)parametric restrictions, for example, proportional hazards. We also explore assumptions such as monotone treatment response, common shocks and positively correlated outcomes that tighten the bounds.

Suggested Citation

  • Vikström, Johan & Ridder, Geert & Weidner, Martin, 2018. "Bounds on treatment effects on transitions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 205(2), pages 448-469.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:205:y:2018:i:2:p:448-469
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2017.11.012
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    Cited by:

    1. Han, Sukjin, 2021. "Identification in nonparametric models for dynamic treatment effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 132-147.
    2. Le Barbanchon, Thomas, 2016. "The effect of the potential duration of unemployment benefits on unemployment exits to work and match quality in France," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 16-29.
    3. Vikström, Johan & Rosholm, Michael & Svarer, Michael, 2013. "The effectiveness of active labor market policies: Evidence from a social experiment using non-parametric bounds," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 58-67.
    4. Fitzenberger, Bernd & Osikominu, Aderonke & Paul, Marie, 2023. "The effects of training incidence and planned training duration on labor market transitions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(1), pages 256-279.
    5. Vikström, Johan & Rosholm, Michael & Svarer, Michael, 2011. "The relative efficiency of active labour market policy: evidence from a social experiment and non-parametric methods," Working Paper Series 2011:7, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
    6. Yechan Park & Yuya Sasaki, 2024. "The Informativeness of Combined Experimental and Observational Data under Dynamic Selection," Papers 2403.16177, arXiv.org.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Partial identification; Duration model; Randomized experiment; Treatment effect;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies

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