Landscape-scale drivers of endangered Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow (Ammospiza maritima mirabilis) presence using an ensemble modeling approach

The Florida Everglades is a vast and iconic wetland ecosystem in the southern United States that has undergone dramatic changes from habitat degradation, development encroachment, and water impoundment. Starting in the past few decades, large restoration projects have been undertaken to restore the landscape, including improving conditions for threatened and imperiled taxa. One focus of restoration has been the marl prairie ecosystem, where the federally endangered Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow (Ammospiza maritima mirabilis; CSSS) resides. The CSSS is endemic to the Everglades where populations have been steadily declining, signaling the importance of decision support tools for natural resource managers for evaluating water management and restoration scenarios. Here we developed an ensemble logistic regression, combining a frequentist and Bayesian approach, to model CSSS presence and measure how environmental factors such as hydrometrics, fire occurrence, and vegetation structure impact CSSS habitat suitability. This is the first analysis to quantitatively assess the interdependent relationships between a broad range of environmental factors and CSSS presence across the landscape. Our results show that the probability of CSSS presence was highest in areas with dry conditions, hydroperiods between 80 and 120 days, percentages of canopy cover and woody vegetation less than 10%, and more than six years post-fire where 75% or more of the area was burned. Because the frequentist and Bayesian models had nearly identical spatial outputs with the Bayesian model having slightly higher validation metrics, we used the Bayesian approach as our final model (EverSparrow). The results from our analysis can provide a valuable decision support tool as natural resource managers work to restore the Everglades landscape.