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Climate change reshuffles northern species within their niches

Author

Listed:
  • Laura H. Antão

    (University of Helsinki)

  • Benjamin Weigel

    (University of Helsinki)

  • Giovanni Strona

    (University of Helsinki)

  • Maria Hällfors

    (University of Helsinki)

  • Elina Kaarlejärvi

    (University of Helsinki)

  • Tad Dallas

    (University of South Carolina)

  • Øystein H. Opedal

    (Lund University)

  • Janne Heliölä

    (Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE))

  • Heikki Henttonen

    (Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke))

  • Otso Huitu

    (Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke))

  • Erkki Korpimäki

    (University of Turku)

  • Mikko Kuussaari

    (Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE))

  • Aleksi Lehikoinen

    (University of Helsinki)

  • Reima Leinonen

    (Kainuu Centre for Economic Development, Transport and the Environment)

  • Andreas Lindén

    (Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke))

  • Päivi Merilä

    (Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke))

  • Hannu Pietiäinen

    (University of Helsinki)

  • Juha Pöyry

    (Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE))

  • Maija Salemaa

    (Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke))

  • Tiina Tonteri

    (Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke))

  • Kristiina Vuorio

    (Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE))

  • Otso Ovaskainen

    (University of Helsinki
    University of Jyväskylä
    Norwegian University of Science and Technology)

  • Marjo Saastamoinen

    (University of Helsinki
    University of Helsinki)

  • Jarno Vanhatalo

    (University of Helsinki
    University of Helsinki)

  • Tomas Roslin

    (University of Helsinki
    University of Helsinki
    Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences)

  • Anna-Liisa Laine

    (University of Helsinki
    University of Zürich)

Abstract

Climate change is a pervasive threat to biodiversity. While range shifts are a known consequence of climate warming contributing to regional community change, less is known about how species’ positions shift within their climatic niches. Furthermore, whether the relative importance of different climatic variables prompting such shifts varies with changing climate remains unclear. Here we analysed four decades of data for 1,478 species of birds, mammals, butterflies, moths, plants and phytoplankton along a 1,200 km high latitudinal gradient. The relative importance of climatic drivers varied non-uniformly with progressing climate change. While species turnover among decades was limited, the relative position of species within their climatic niche shifted substantially. A greater proportion of species responded to climatic change at higher latitudes, where changes were stronger. These diverging climate imprints restructure a full biome, making it difficult to generalize biodiversity responses and raising concerns about ecosystem integrity in the face of accelerating climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Laura H. Antão & Benjamin Weigel & Giovanni Strona & Maria Hällfors & Elina Kaarlejärvi & Tad Dallas & Øystein H. Opedal & Janne Heliölä & Heikki Henttonen & Otso Huitu & Erkki Korpimäki & Mikko Kuuss, 2022. "Climate change reshuffles northern species within their niches," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(6), pages 587-592, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:12:y:2022:i:6:d:10.1038_s41558-022-01381-x
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01381-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tjur, Tue, 2009. "Coefficients of Determination in Logistic Regression Models—A New Proposal: The Coefficient of Discrimination," The American Statistician, American Statistical Association, vol. 63(4), pages 366-372.
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