IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecomod/v410y2019ic11.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Development and implementation of an empirical habitat change model and decision support tool for estuarine ecosystems

Author

Listed:
  • Davis, Melanie J.
  • Woo, Isa
  • De La Cruz, Susan E.W.

Abstract

Widespread land use change in coastal ecosystems has led to a decline in the amount of habitat available for fish and wildlife, lower production of ecosystem goods and services, and loss of recreational and aesthetic value. This has prompted global efforts to restore the natural hydrologic regimes of developed shorelines, especially resource-rich estuaries, but the resilience of these restored ecosystems in the face of accelerated sea-level rise (SLR) remains uncertain. We implemented a Monitoring-based Simulation of Accretion in Coastal Estuaries (MOSAICS) in R statistical software to address uncertainty in the resilience of modified estuarine habitats, using the Nisqually River Delta in the Pacific Northwest USA as a case study. MOSAICS is a spatially explicit model with a numerical foundation that uses empirical monitoring datasets to forecast habitat change in response to rising tidal levels. Because it accounts for the crucial ecomorphodynamic feedbacks between tidal inundation, vegetative growth, and sediment accretion, MOSAICS can be used to determine whether alternative management scenarios, such as enhanced sediment inputs, will bolster estuarine resilience to SLR. Under moderate SLR (0.62 m), the model predicted that a two-fold increase in mean daily suspended sediment during the rainy season was sufficient to maintain Nisqually’s emergent marshes through 2100, but under high SLR (1.35 m) MOSAICS indicated that greater sediment additions would be necessary to prevent submergence. A comparison between a restored marsh with subsided and high-elevation areas and a relict marsh demonstrated that the subsided restoration area was highly susceptible to SLR. Findings from the MOSAICS model highlight the importance of a site’s initial elevation, capacity for producing above and belowground biomass, and suspended sediment availability when considering management actions in estuaries and other coastal ecosystems.

Suggested Citation

  • Davis, Melanie J. & Woo, Isa & De La Cruz, Susan E.W., 2019. "Development and implementation of an empirical habitat change model and decision support tool for estuarine ecosystems," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 410(C), pages 1-1.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:410:y:2019:i:c:11
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2019.108722
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380019302224
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2019.108722?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Laurel Ballanti & Kristin B. Byrd & Isa Woo & Christopher Ellings, 2017. "Remote Sensing for Wetland Mapping and Historical Change Detection at the Nisqually River Delta," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-32, October.
    2. Matthew L. Kirwan & J. Patrick Megonigal, 2013. "Tidal wetland stability in the face of human impacts and sea-level rise," Nature, Nature, vol. 504(7478), pages 53-60, December.
    3. Rogers, Kerrylee & Saintilan, Neil & Copeland, Craig, 2012. "Modelling wetland surface elevation dynamics and its application to forecasting the effects of sea-level rise on estuarine wetlands," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 244(C), pages 148-157.
    4. Robert M. DeConto & David Pollard, 2016. "Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise," Nature, Nature, vol. 531(7596), pages 591-597, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wu, Wei & Yeager, Kevin M. & Peterson, Mark S. & Fulford, Richard S., 2015. "Neutral models as a way to evaluate the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM)," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 303(C), pages 55-69.
    2. Ashley C. Freeman & Walker S. Ashley, 2017. "Changes in the US hurricane disaster landscape: the relationship between risk and exposure," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 88(2), pages 659-682, September.
    3. Cara Nissen & Ralph Timmermann & Mario Hoppema & Özgür Gürses & Judith Hauck, 2022. "Abruptly attenuated carbon sequestration with Weddell Sea dense waters by 2100," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-14, December.
    4. T.M.L. Wigley, 2018. "The Paris warming targets: emissions requirements and sea level consequences," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(1), pages 31-45, March.
    5. Adam D. Sproson & Yusuke Yokoyama & Yosuke Miyairi & Takahiro Aze & Rebecca L. Totten, 2022. "Holocene melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet driven by tropical Pacific warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    6. Le Bars, Dewi, 2018. "Uncertainty in sea level rise projections due to the dependence between contributors," Earth Arxiv uvw3s, Center for Open Science.
    7. Ge, Zhen-Ming & Guo, Hai-Qiang & Zhao, Bin & Zhang, Chao & Peltola, Heli & Zhang, Li-Quan, 2016. "Spatiotemporal patterns of the gross primary production in the salt marshes with rapid community change: A coupled modeling approach," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 321(C), pages 110-120.
    8. Tony E. Wong & Alexander M. R. Bakker & Klaus Keller, 2017. "Impacts of Antarctic fast dynamics on sea-level projections and coastal flood defense," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 144(2), pages 347-364, September.
    9. Jun-Young Park & Fabian Schloesser & Axel Timmermann & Dipayan Choudhury & June-Yi Lee & Arjun Babu Nellikkattil, 2023. "Future sea-level projections with a coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice-sheet model," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    10. Hermine Vedogbeton & Robert J. Johnston, 2020. "Commodity Consistent Meta-Analysis of Wetland Values: An Illustration for Coastal Marsh Habitat," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 75(4), pages 835-865, April.
    11. Julian David Hunt & Edward Byers, 2019. "Reducing sea level rise with submerged barriers and dams in Greenland," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 24(5), pages 779-794, June.
    12. repec:ags:aaea22:335970 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Frankie St. Amand & Daniel H. Sandweiss & Alice R. Kelley, 2020. "Climate-driven migration: prioritizing cultural resources threatened by secondary impacts of climate change," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(2), pages 1761-1781, September.
    14. Danghan Xie & Christian Schwarz & Maarten G. Kleinhans & Karin R. Bryan & Giovanni Coco & Stephen Hunt & Barend van Maanen, 2023. "Mangrove removal exacerbates estuarine infilling through landscape-scale bio-morphodynamic feedbacks," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, December.
    15. Yuqing Zhao & Zenglin Han & Changren Zhang & Yuqiao Wang & Jingqiu Zhong & Mengfan Gao, 2024. "Coastal Cultural Ecosystem Services: A Bridge between the Natural Ecosystem and Social Ecosystem for Sustainable Development," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-22, August.
    16. Ling Luo & Dehua Mao & Zongming Wang & Baojia Du & Hengqi Yan & Bai Zhang, 2018. "Remote Sensing and GIS Support to Identify Potential Areas for Wetland Restoration from Cropland: A Case Study in the West Songnen Plain, Northeast China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-14, July.
    17. Kristina Hill, 2016. "Climate Change: Implications for the Assumptions, Goals and Methods of Urban Environmental Planning," Urban Planning, Cogitatio Press, vol. 1(4), pages 103-113.
    18. Klaus Desmet & Robert E. Kopp & Scott A. Kulp & Dávid Krisztián Nagy & Michael Oppenheimer & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg & Benjamin H. Strauss, 2021. "Evaluating the Economic Cost of Coastal Flooding," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 444-486, April.
    19. Mutsumi Iizuka & Osamu Seki & David J. Wilson & Yusuke Suganuma & Keiji Horikawa & Tina Flierdt & Minoru Ikehara & Takuya Itaki & Tomohisa Irino & Masanobu Yamamoto & Motohiro Hirabayashi & Hiroyuki M, 2023. "Multiple episodes of ice loss from the Wilkes Subglacial Basin during the Last Interglacial," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    20. Zhiyi Lin & Minerva Singh, 2024. "Assessing Coastal Vulnerability and Evaluating the Effectiveness of Natural Habitats in Enhancing Coastal Resilience: A Case Study in Shanghai, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-23, January.
    21. Panpan Cui & Fangli Su & Fang Zhou, 2022. "Inundation Depth Shape Phenotypic Variability of Phragmites australis in Liaohe Estuary Wetland, Northeast China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-13, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:410:y:2019:i:c:11. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/ecological-modelling .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.