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Future sea-level projections with a coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice-sheet model

Author

Listed:
  • Jun-Young Park

    (Institute for Basic Science
    Pusan National University)

  • Fabian Schloesser

    (University of Hawaii)

  • Axel Timmermann

    (Institute for Basic Science
    Pusan National University)

  • Dipayan Choudhury

    (Institute for Basic Science
    University of New South Wales)

  • June-Yi Lee

    (Institute for Basic Science
    Pusan National University
    Pusan National University)

  • Arjun Babu Nellikkattil

    (Institute for Basic Science
    Pusan National University)

Abstract

Climate-forced, offline ice-sheet model simulations have been used extensively in assessing how much ice-sheets can contribute to future global sea-level rise. Typically, these model projections do not account for the two-way interactions between ice-sheets and climate. To quantify the impact of ice-ocean-atmosphere feedbacks, here we conduct greenhouse warming simulations with a coupled global climate-ice-sheet model of intermediate complexity. Following the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 1-1.9, 2-4.5, 5-8.5 emission scenarios, the model simulations ice-sheet contributions to global sea-level rise by 2150 of 0.2 ± 0.01, 0.5 ± 0.01 and 1.4 ± 0.1 m, respectively. Antarctic ocean-ice-sheet-ice-shelf interactions enhance future subsurface basal melting, while freshwater-induced atmospheric cooling reduces surface melting and iceberg calving. The combined effect is likely to decelerate global sea-level rise contributions from Antarctica relative to the uncoupled climate-forced ice-sheet model configuration. Our results demonstrate that estimates of future sea-level rise fundamentally depend on the complex interactions between ice-sheets, icebergs, ocean and the atmosphere.

Suggested Citation

  • Jun-Young Park & Fabian Schloesser & Axel Timmermann & Dipayan Choudhury & June-Yi Lee & Arjun Babu Nellikkattil, 2023. "Future sea-level projections with a coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice-sheet model," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-36051-9
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-36051-9
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