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Beyond big fish: The case for more detailed representations of top predators in marine ecosystem models

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  • Goedegebuure, Merel
  • Melbourne-Thomas, Jessica
  • Corney, Stuart P.
  • Hindell, Mark A.
  • Constable, Andrew J.

Abstract

Seabirds and marine mammals are generally not well represented in marine ecosystem models, despite the important roles that these groups play in determining ecosystem dynamics. This is an important gap in model development, particularly for end-to-end ecosystem models, which are becoming increasingly important tools for fisheries and ecosystem based management and assessment. Examination of large-scale and widely-applied pelagic end-to-end ecosystem models indicates that representations of predators are currently best developed for fish groups. The methods for modelling seabirds and marine mammals on the other hand, are less well developed. This is potentially due to the challenges involved in data collection and in representing the complex life histories of many of these species. To examine the effect that different representations of higher trophic level predators might have on ecosystem model predictions, we developed a set of simple nested qualitative network models and examined their responses to perturbations. Responses differed between models across a range of trophic levels under a simple scenario for environmental change, highlighting that how predators are modelled can have implications for ecosystem-level predictions. We conclude with a discussion around potential approaches for developing more detailed representations of predator groups, and suggest incorporating dynamic energy budget theory in individual-based models to represent higher trophic level predators with more complex life histories.

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  • Goedegebuure, Merel & Melbourne-Thomas, Jessica & Corney, Stuart P. & Hindell, Mark A. & Constable, Andrew J., 2017. "Beyond big fish: The case for more detailed representations of top predators in marine ecosystem models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 359(C), pages 182-192.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:359:y:2017:i:c:p:182-192
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2017.04.004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Merel Goedegebuure & Jessica Melbourne-Thomas & Stuart P Corney & Clive R McMahon & Mark A Hindell, 2018. "Modelling southern elephant seals Mirounga leonina using an individual-based model coupled with a dynamic energy budget," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(3), pages 1-37, March.
    2. Forget, Nathalie L. & Duplisea, Daniel E. & Sardenne, Fany & McKindsey, Christopher W., 2020. "Using qualitative network models to assess the influence of mussel culture on ecosystem dynamics," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 430(C).
    3. Ricci, P. & Sion, L. & Capezzuto, F. & Cipriano, G. & D'Onghia, G. & Libralato, S. & Maiorano, P. & Tursi, A. & Carlucci, R., 2021. "Modelling the trophic roles of the demersal Chondrichthyes in the Northern Ionian Sea (Central Mediterranean Sea)," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 444(C).
    4. Perryman, Holly A. & Tarnecki, Joseph H. & Grüss, Arnaud & Babcock, Elizabeth A. & Sagarese, Skyler R. & Ainsworth, Cameron H. & Gray DiLeone, Alisha M., 2020. "A revised diet matrix to improve the parameterization of a West Florida Shelf Ecopath model for understanding harmful algal bloom impacts," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 416(C).
    5. Han, Yi & Kristensen, Nadiah P. & Buckley, Yvonne M. & Maple, Dion J. & West, Judith & McDonald-Madden, Eve, 2020. "Predicting the ecosystem-wide impacts of eradication with limited information using a qualitative modelling approach," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 430(C).

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