IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecomod/v342y2016icp1-18.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Landscape and flow metrics affecting the distribution of a federally-threatened fish: Improving management, model fit, and model transferability

Author

Listed:
  • Worthington, Thomas A.
  • Zhang, Tianjiao
  • Logue, Daniel R.
  • Mittelstet, Aaron R.
  • Brewer, Shannon K.

Abstract

Truncated distributions of pelagophilic fishes have been observed across the Great Plains of North America, with water use and landscape fragmentation implicated as contributing factors. Developing conservation strategies for these species is hindered by the existence of multiple competing flow regime hypotheses related to species persistence. Our primary study objective was to compare the predicted distributions of one pelagophil, the Arkansas River Shiner Notropis girardi, constructed using different flow regime metrics. Further, we investigated different approaches for improving temporal transferability of the species distribution model (SDM). We compared four hypotheses: mean annual flow (a baseline), the 75th percentile of daily flow, the number of zero-flow days, and the number of days above 55th percentile flows, to examine the relative importance of flows during the spawning period. Building on an earlier SDM, we added covariates that quantified wells in each catchment, point source discharges, and non-native species presence to a structured variable framework. We assessed the effects on model transferability and fit by reducing multicollinearity using Spearman’s rank correlations, variance inflation factors, and principal component analysis, as well as altering the regularization coefficient (β) within MaxEnt. The 75th percentile of daily flow was the most important flow metric related to structuring the species distribution. The number of wells and point source discharges were also highly ranked. At the default level of β, model transferability was improved using all methods to reduce collinearity; however, at higher levels of β, the correlation method performed best. Using β=5 provided the best model transferability, while retaining the majority of variables that contributed 95% to the model. This study provides a workflow for improving model transferability and also presents water-management options that may be considered to improve the conservation status of pelagophils.

Suggested Citation

  • Worthington, Thomas A. & Zhang, Tianjiao & Logue, Daniel R. & Mittelstet, Aaron R. & Brewer, Shannon K., 2016. "Landscape and flow metrics affecting the distribution of a federally-threatened fish: Improving management, model fit, and model transferability," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 342(C), pages 1-18.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:342:y:2016:i:c:p:1-18
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2016.09.016
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380016304434
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2016.09.016?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. ., 2014. "Natural Environment," Chapters, in: Common Innovation, chapter 17, pages 144-152, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Moreno-Amat, Elena & Mateo, Rubén G. & Nieto-Lugilde, Diego & Morueta-Holme, Naia & Svenning, Jens-Christian & García-Amorena, Ignacio, 2015. "Impact of model complexity on cross-temporal transferability in Maxent species distribution models: An assessment using paleobotanical data," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 312(C), pages 308-317.
    3. Shcheglovitova, Mariya & Anderson, Robert P., 2013. "Estimating optimal complexity for ecological niche models: A jackknife approach for species with small sample sizes," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 269(C), pages 9-17.
    4. Cao, Yong & DeWalt, R. Edward & Robinson, Jason L. & Tweddale, Tari & Hinz, Leon & Pessino, Massimo, 2013. "Using Maxent to model the historic distributions of stonefly species in Illinois streams: The effects of regularization and threshold selections," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 259(C), pages 30-39.
    5. C. J. Vörösmarty & P. B. McIntyre & M. O. Gessner & D. Dudgeon & A. Prusevich & P. Green & S. Glidden & S. E. Bunn & C. A. Sullivan & C. Reidy Liermann & P. M. Davies, 2010. "Global threats to human water security and river biodiversity," Nature, Nature, vol. 467(7315), pages 555-561, September.
    6. Anderson, Robert P. & Gonzalez, Israel, 2011. "Species-specific tuning increases robustness to sampling bias in models of species distributions: An implementation with Maxent," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(15), pages 2796-2811.
    7. ., 2014. "Socio-Economic Environment," Chapters, in: Common Innovation, chapter 18, pages 153-164, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Keretz, Shay S. & Woolnough, Daelyn A. & Morris, Todd J. & Roseman, Edward F. & Zanatta, David T., 2024. "Habitat modelling of native freshwater mussels distinguishes river specific differences in the Detroit and St. Clair rivers of the Laurentian Great Lakes," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 487(C).
    2. Cervelli, Elena & Recchi, Pier Francesco & Fagnano, Massimo & Scotto di Perta, Ester & Pindozzi, Stefania, 2024. "Marginal lands between recovery and valorization. An inclusive definition to support bio-energy supply chains. The Southern Italy contexts case study," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    3. Gamal M. Orabi & Fayez M. Semida & Doaa M. Medany & Mohamed A. Issa & Sanad H. Ragab & Mohamed Kamel, 2024. "Predicting the Invasion Range of the Common Myna, Acridotheres tristis Linnaeus, 1766 in Egypt under Climate Change," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(15), pages 1-22, July.
    4. Yuncheng Zhao & Mingyue Zhao & Lei Zhang & Chunyi Wang & Yinlong Xu, 2021. "Predicting Possible Distribution of Tea ( Camellia sinensis L.) under Climate Change Scenarios Using MaxEnt Model in China," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-18, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Holder, Anna M. & Markarian, Arev & Doyle, Jessie M. & Olson, John R., 2020. "Predicting geographic distributions of fishes in remote stream networks using maximum entropy modeling and landscape characterizations," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 433(C).
    2. Moreno-Amat, Elena & Mateo, Rubén G. & Nieto-Lugilde, Diego & Morueta-Holme, Naia & Svenning, Jens-Christian & García-Amorena, Ignacio, 2015. "Impact of model complexity on cross-temporal transferability in Maxent species distribution models: An assessment using paleobotanical data," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 312(C), pages 308-317.
    3. Zeng, Yiwen & Low, Bi Wei & Yeo, Darren C.J., 2016. "Novel methods to select environmental variables in MaxEnt: A case study using invasive crayfish," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 341(C), pages 5-13.
    4. Duque-Lazo, J. & van Gils, H. & Groen, T.A. & Navarro-Cerrillo, R.M., 2016. "Transferability of species distribution models: The case of Phytophthora cinnamomi in Southwest Spain and Southwest Australia," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 320(C), pages 62-70.
    5. Herkt, K. Matthias B. & Barnikel, Günter & Skidmore, Andrew K. & Fahr, Jakob, 2016. "A high-resolution model of bat diversity and endemism for continental Africa," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 320(C), pages 9-28.
    6. Fois, Mauro & Cuena-Lombraña, Alba & Fenu, Giuseppe & Bacchetta, Gianluigi, 2018. "Using species distribution models at local scale to guide the search of poorly known species: Review, methodological issues and future directions," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 385(C), pages 124-132.
    7. Sutton, G.F. & Martin, G.D., 2022. "Testing MaxEnt model performance in a novel geographic region using an intentionally introduced insect," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 473(C).
    8. Boria, Robert A. & Olson, Link E. & Goodman, Steven M. & Anderson, Robert P., 2014. "Spatial filtering to reduce sampling bias can improve the performance of ecological niche models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 275(C), pages 73-77.
    9. Cesar A Marchioro, 2016. "Global Potential Distribution of Bactrocera carambolae and the Risks for Fruit Production in Brazil," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(11), pages 1-16, November.
    10. Ortner, Olivia & Wallentin, Gudrun, 2020. "Integration of landscape metric surfaces derived from vector data improves species distribution models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 431(C).
    11. Kuznetsov, Andrei & Dinwoodie, John & Gibbs, David & Sansom, Mark & Knowles, Harriet, 2015. "Towards a sustainability management system for smaller ports," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 59-68.
    12. Constantin-Marius APOSTOAIE, 2016. "Assessing National Environmental Performance In The Eastern Partnership Countries," EURINT, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 3, pages 149-168.
    13. Curran, Giorel, 2017. "Social licence, corporate social responsibility and coal seam gas: framing the new political dynamics of contestation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 427-435.
    14. Cao, Yong & DeWalt, R. Edward & Robinson, Jason L. & Tweddale, Tari & Hinz, Leon & Pessino, Massimo, 2013. "Using Maxent to model the historic distributions of stonefly species in Illinois streams: The effects of regularization and threshold selections," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 259(C), pages 30-39.
    15. Samuel Asumadu Sarkodie & Maruf Yakubu Ahmed & Phebe Asantewaa Owusu, 2022. "Global adaptation readiness and income mitigate sectoral climate change vulnerabilities," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-17, December.
    16. Wiltshire, Kathryn H & Tanner, Jason E, 2020. "Comparing maximum entropy modelling methods to inform aquaculture site selection for novel seaweed species," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 429(C).
    17. Yuichiro Yoshida & Han Soo Lee & Bui Huy Trung & Hoang-Dung Tran & Mahrjan Keshlav Lall & Kifayatullah Kakar & Tran Dang Xuan, 2020. "Impacts of Mainstream Hydropower Dams on Fisheries and Agriculture in Lower Mekong Basin," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-21, March.
    18. Cai, Benan & Long, Chengjun & Du, Qiaochen & Zhang, Wenchao & Hou, Yandong & Wang, Haijun & Cai, Weihua, 2023. "Analysis of a spray flash desalination system driven by low-grade waste heat with different intermittencies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    19. Yang, Lin & Pang, Shujiang & Wang, Xiaoyan & Du, Yi & Huang, Jieyu & Melching, Charles S., 2021. "Optimal allocation of best management practices based on receiving water capacity constraints," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).
    20. Antonio J. Castro & Cristina Quintas-Soriano & Jodi Brandt & Carla L. Atkinson & Colden V. Baxter & Morey Burnham & Benis N. Egoh & Marina García-Llorente & Jason P. Julian & Berta Martín-López & Feli, 2018. "Applying Place-Based Social-Ecological Research to Address Water Scarcity: Insights for Future Research," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-13, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:342:y:2016:i:c:p:1-18. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/ecological-modelling .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.