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Applying ecological model evaludation: Lessons learned with the forest dynamics model Samsara2

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  • Courbaud, B.
  • Lafond, V.
  • Lagarrigues, G.
  • Vieilledent, G.
  • Cordonnier, T.
  • Jabot, F.
  • de Coligny, F.

Abstract

Ecological models are increasingly used as decision-making tools and their reliability is becoming a key issue. At the same time, the sophistication of techniques for model development and analysis has given rise to a relative compartmentalization of model building and evaluation tasks. Several guidelines invite ecological modelers to follow an organized sequence of development and analysis steps and have coined the term “evaludation” for this process. The objective of this paper is to assess the feasibility and the value of a structured evaludation process, based on the working example of the Samsara2 model, a spatially explicit individual-based forest dynamics model. We implemented the six steps of model design, process level calibration, qualitative evaluation, quantitative evaluation, global sensitivity analysis, and partial recalibration using approximate Bayesian computing. We then evaluated how the evaludation process revealed model strengths and weaknesses, specified the model's conditions of use, clarified how the model works, and provided insights into forest ecosystem functioning. Finally, the efficiency/cost ratio of the process and future improvements are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Courbaud, B. & Lafond, V. & Lagarrigues, G. & Vieilledent, G. & Cordonnier, T. & Jabot, F. & de Coligny, F., 2015. "Applying ecological model evaludation: Lessons learned with the forest dynamics model Samsara2," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 314(C), pages 1-14.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:314:y:2015:i:c:p:1-14
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.06.039
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    1. Grimm, Volker & Augusiak, Jacqueline & Focks, Andreas & Frank, Béatrice M. & Gabsi, Faten & Johnston, Alice S.A. & Liu, Chun & Martin, Benjamin T. & Meli, Mattia & Radchuk, Viktoriia & Thorbek, Pernil, 2014. "Towards better modelling and decision support: Documenting model development, testing, and analysis using TRACE," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 280(C), pages 129-139.
    2. Augusiak, Jacqueline & Van den Brink, Paul J. & Grimm, Volker, 2014. "Merging validation and evaluation of ecological models to ‘evaludation’: A review of terminology and a practical approach," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 280(C), pages 117-128.
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    5. Fortin, Mathieu & Bédard, Steve & DeBlois, Josianne & Meunier, Sébastien, 2009. "Assessing and testing prediction uncertainty for single tree-based models: A case study applied to northern hardwood stands in southern Québec, Canada," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(20), pages 2770-2781.
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    2. Forrester, David I. & England, Jacqueline R. & Paul, Keryn I. & Roxburgh, Stephen H., 2024. "Sensitivity analysis of the FullCAM model: Context dependency and implications for model development to predict Australia's forest carbon stocks," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 489(C).
    3. Huber, Nica & Bugmann, Harald & Lafond, Valentine, 2018. "Global sensitivity analysis of a dynamic vegetation model: Model sensitivity depends on successional time, climate and competitive interactions," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 368(C), pages 377-390.
    4. Gauzere, Julie & Lucas, Camille & Ronce, Ophélie & Davi, Hendrik & Chuine, Isabelle, 2019. "Sensitivity analysis of tree phenology models reveals increasing sensitivity of their predictions to winter chilling temperature and photoperiod with warming climate," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 411(C).
    5. Irauschek, Florian & Barka, Ivan & Bugmann, Harald & Courbaud, Benoit & Elkin, Che & Hlásny, Tomáš & Klopcic, Matija & Mina, Marco & Rammer, Werner & Lexer, Manfred J, 2021. "Evaluating five forest models using multi-decadal inventory data from mountain forests," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 445(C).
    6. Schmid, Ueli & Frehner, Monika & Glatthorn, Jonas & Bugmann, Harald, 2023. "ProForM: A simulation model for the management of mountain protection forests," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 478(C).

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