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Impact of the quality of climate models for modelling species occurrences in countries with poor climatic documentation: a case study from Bolivia

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  • Soria-Auza, Rodrigo W.
  • Kessler, Michael
  • Bach, Kerstin
  • Barajas-Barbosa, Paola M.
  • Lehnert, Marcus
  • Herzog, Sebastian K.
  • Böhner, Jürgen

Abstract

The quality of climate models has largely been overlooked as a possible source of uncertainty that may affect the outcomes of species distribution models, especially in the tropics, where comparatively few climatic stations are available. We compared the geographical discrepancies and potential conservation implications of using two different climate models (Saga and Worldclim) in combination with the species modelling approach Maxent in Bolivia. We estimated ranges of selected bird and fern species biogeographically restricted to either humid montane forest of the northern Bolivian Andes or seasonal dry tropical forests (in the Andes and southern lowlands). Saga and Worldclim predicted roughly similar climate patterns of temperature that were significantly correlated. Precipitation layers of both climate models were also roughly similar, but showed important differences. Species ranges estimated with Worldclim and Saga likewise produced different results. Ranges of species endemic to humid montane forests estimated with Saga had higher AUC (Area under the curve) values than those estimated with Worldclim, which for example predicted the occurrence of humid montane forest bird species near Lake Titicaca, an area that is clearly unsuitable for these species. Likewise, Worldclim overpredicted the occurrence of fern and bird species in the lowlands of the Chapare region and well south of the Andean Elbow, where more seasonal biomes occur. By contrast, Saga predictions were coherent with the known distribution of humid montane forests in the northern Bolivian Andes. Estimated ranges of species endemic to seasonal dry tropical forests predicted with Saga and Worldclim were not statistically different in most cases. However, detailed comparisons revealed that Saga was able to distinguish fragments of seasonal dry tropical forests in rain-shadow valleys of the northern Bolivian Andes, whereas Worldclim was not. These differences highlight the neglected influence of climate layers on modelling results and the importance of using the most accurate climate data available when modelling species distributions.

Suggested Citation

  • Soria-Auza, Rodrigo W. & Kessler, Michael & Bach, Kerstin & Barajas-Barbosa, Paola M. & Lehnert, Marcus & Herzog, Sebastian K. & Böhner, Jürgen, 2010. "Impact of the quality of climate models for modelling species occurrences in countries with poor climatic documentation: a case study from Bolivia," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(8), pages 1221-1229.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:221:y:2010:i:8:p:1221-1229
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2010.01.004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kessler, Michael & Böhner, Jürgen & Kluge, Jürgen, 2007. "Modelling tree height to assess climatic conditions at tree lines in the Bolivian Andes," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 207(2), pages 223-233.
    2. Peterson, A. Townsend & Papeş, Monica & Soberón, Jorge, 2008. "Rethinking receiver operating characteristic analysis applications in ecological niche modeling," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 213(1), pages 63-72.
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    1. Bobrowski, Maria & Weidinger, Johannes & Schwab, Niels & Schickhoff, Udo, 2021. "Searching for ecology in species distribution models in the Himalayas," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 458(C).
    2. Maria, Bobrowski & Udo, Schickhoff, 2017. "Why input matters: Selection of climate data sets for modelling the potential distribution of a treeline species in the Himalayan region," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 359(C), pages 92-102.

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