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Impact of climate change on soil moisture dynamics in Brandenburg with a focus on nature conservation areas

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  • Holsten, Anne
  • Vetter, Tobias
  • Vohland, Katrin
  • Krysanova, Valentina

Abstract

Global warming impacts the water cycle not only by changing regional precipitation levels and temporal variability, but also by affecting water flows and soil moisture dynamics. In Brandenburg, increasing average annual temperature and decreasing precipitation in summer have already been observed. For this study, past trends and future effects of climate change on soil moisture dynamics in Brandenburg were investigated, considering regional and specific spatial impacts. Special Areas of Conservation (SACs) were focused on in particular. A decreasing trend in soil water content was shown for the past by analyzing simulation results from 1951 to 2003 using the integrated ecohydrological model SWIM [Krysanova, V., Müller-Wohlfeil, D.-I., Becker, A., 1998. Development and test of a spatially distributed hydrological/water quality model for mesoscale watersheds. Ecol. Model. 106, 261–289]. The trend was statistically significant for some areas, but not for the entire region. Simulated soil water content was particularly low in the extremely dry year 2003. Comparisons of simulated trends in soil moisture dynamics with trends in the average annual Palmer Drought Severity Index for the region showed largely congruent patterns, though the modeled soil moisture trends are characterized by a much higher spatial resolution. Regionally downscaled climate change projections representing the range between wetter and drier realizations were used to evaluate future trends of available soil water. A further decrease of average available soil water ranging from −4% to −15% was projected for all climate realizations up to the middle of the 21st century. An average decrease of more than 25mm was simulated for 34% of the total area in the dry realization. Available soil water contents in SACs were generally higher and trends in soil moisture dynamics were lower mainly due to their favorable edaphic conditions. Stronger absolute and relative changes in the simulated trends for the past and future were shown for SACs within Brandenburg than for the state as a whole, indicating a high level of risk for many wetland areas. Nonetheless, soil water content in SACs is expected to remain higher than average under climate change conditions as well, and SACs therefore have an important buffer function under the projected climate change. They are thus essential for local climate and water regulation and their status as protected areas in Brandenburg should be preserved.

Suggested Citation

  • Holsten, Anne & Vetter, Tobias & Vohland, Katrin & Krysanova, Valentina, 2009. "Impact of climate change on soil moisture dynamics in Brandenburg with a focus on nature conservation areas," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(17), pages 2076-2087.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:220:y:2009:i:17:p:2076-2087
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.04.038
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    1. Bormann, Helge & Breuer, Lutz & Gräff, Thomas & Huisman, Johan A., 2007. "Analysing the effects of soil properties changes associated with land use changes on the simulated water balance: A comparison of three hydrological catchment models for scenario analysis," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 209(1), pages 29-40.
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    2. Hlavinka, Petr & Trnka, Miroslav & Balek, Jan & Semerádová, Daniela & Hayes, Michael & Svoboda, Mark & Eitzinger, Josef & Mozný, Martin & Fischer, Milan & Hunt, Eric & Zalud, Zdenek, 2011. "Development and evaluation of the SoilClim model for water balance and soil climate estimates," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 98(8), pages 1249-1261, May.
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    4. Yuyan Liu & Fei Shi & Xuan Liu & Zihui Zhao & Yongtao Jin & Yulin Zhan & Xia Zhu & Wei Luo & Wenhao Zhang & Yuefang Sun & Xuqing Li & Yancang Wang, 2022. "Influence of Different Meteorological Factors on the Accuracy of Back Propagation Neural Network Simulation of Soil Moisture in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-23, December.
    5. Agathos Filintas & Nikolaos Gougoulias & Nektarios Kourgialas & Eleni Hatzichristou, 2023. "Management Soil Zones, Irrigation, and Fertigation Effects on Yield and Oil Content of Coriandrum sativum L. Using Precision Agriculture with Fuzzy k-Means Clustering," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-33, September.
    6. Fouad H. Saeed & Mahmoud S. Al-Khafaji & Furat A. Mahmood Al-Faraj, 2021. "Sensitivity of Irrigation Water Requirement to Climate Change in Arid and Semi-Arid Regions towards Sustainable Management of Water Resources," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-21, December.
    7. Amfo, Bismark & Ali, Ernest Baba & Atinga, David, 2021. "Climate change, soil water conservation, and productivity: Evidence from cocoa farmers in Ghana," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).

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