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Maximum entropy niche-based modelling of seasonal changes in little bustard (Tetrax tetrax) distribution

Author

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  • Suárez-Seoane, Susana
  • García de la Morena, Eladio L.
  • Morales Prieto, Manuel B.
  • Osborne, Patrick E.
  • de Juana, Eduardo

Abstract

The effects of habitat fragmentation on species may change seasonally mainly due to variations in resource availability and biotic interactions. In critical periods, such as winter, when the importance of intraspecific competition diminish, species may relax their environmental requirements widening their ecological niche to exploit the scarcer trophic resources more efficiently in comparison with spring. Those variations in niche width may implicate seasonal expansions/retractions in species distribution. In this sense, an integrated knowledge on the spatial arrangement of breeding and wintering suitable patches is essential to infer seasonal movements (migratory connectivity). This paper shows that little bustard environmental preferences were more predictable and complex (controlled by a larger number of environmental factors) in spring than in winter, when potential distribution and ecological niche width were slightly larger. In spring, habitat variables (i.e. percentage of dry crops and pasturelands and altitude) ruled species’ distribution; while, winter pattern was driven by mixed criteria, based on both habitat and climate (i.e. percentage of dry crops and wastelands and winter rainfall). Suitable patches were more connected across spatial scales in winter than in spring, i.e. landscape was perceived as less fragmented. The overlap between potential breeding and wintering distribution areas was high. In fact, most of the predicted wintering areas coincided or showed high connectedness with predicted breeding patches. Conversely, there were significant breeding patches that were predicted with low suitability, showing little connectedness with potential winter areas. Spring habitat was a better predictor of little bustard’s wintering range than vice versa, which has clear management implications (preserving breeding sites closer to wintering areas ensures the conservation of a larger proportion of the total distribution range). This is an example of how predictive large-scale modeling procedures can contribute to the optimization of land management aimed at species conservation.

Suggested Citation

  • Suárez-Seoane, Susana & García de la Morena, Eladio L. & Morales Prieto, Manuel B. & Osborne, Patrick E. & de Juana, Eduardo, 2008. "Maximum entropy niche-based modelling of seasonal changes in little bustard (Tetrax tetrax) distribution," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 219(1), pages 17-29.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:219:y:2008:i:1:p:17-29
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2008.07.035
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Townsend Peterson, A., 2007. "Why not WhyWhere: The need for more complex models of simpler environmental spaces," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 203(3), pages 527-530.
    2. Austin, Mike, 2007. "Species distribution models and ecological theory: A critical assessment and some possible new approaches," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 200(1), pages 1-19.
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    1. Sohoulande Djebou, Dagbegnon C. & Singh, Vijay P., 2015. "Retrieving vegetation growth patterns from soil moisture, precipitation and temperature using maximum entropy," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 309, pages 10-21.
    2. Merckx, Bea & Steyaert, Maaike & Vanreusel, Ann & Vincx, Magda & Vanaverbeke, Jan, 2011. "Null models reveal preferential sampling, spatial autocorrelation and overfitting in habitat suitability modelling," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(3), pages 588-597.

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