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Violent conflict and expectation about the economy's performance: Evidence from Nigeria

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  • Tuki, Daniel

Abstract

This study examines how exposure to violent conflict influences individuals’ expectations about Nigeria's future economic performance. It employs forest cover as an instrumental variable to identify the causal effect of violent conflict on expected economic performance. The regression results reveal that violent conflict makes people pessimistic about the economy's future performance. This might be because conflict disrupts socioeconomic activities and causes psychological distress, making people less hopeful about the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Tuki, Daniel, 2024. "Violent conflict and expectation about the economy's performance: Evidence from Nigeria," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:241:y:2024:i:c:s0165176524002921
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111808
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pieter Serneels & Marijke Verpoorten, 2015. "The Impact of Armed Conflict on Economic Performance," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 59(4), pages 555-592, June.
    2. Federico Barra & Claudia Berg & Philip Verwimp, 2018. "Violent Conflict, Transport Costs, and Poverty: An Instrumental Variables Approach with Geospatial Data for Nigeria," Working Papers ECARES 2018-30, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    3. Max Schaub & Daniel Auer, 2023. "Rebel Recruitment and Migration: Theory and Evidence From Southern Senegal," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 67(6), pages 1155-1182, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Violent conflict; Terrorism; Expectation; Economy; Kaduna State; Nigeria;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D01 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions

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