Conflict exposure and food consumption pathways during and after conflict: Evidence from Northern Uganda

We examine the consequences of conflict exposure on food consumption and consumption pathways three and six years after the cessation of hostilities of the Lord Resistance Army insurgency in Northern Uganda. We use the correlated random effects model and fractional multinomial response model with nationally representative panel data collected during and after the cessation of hostilities. The uniqueness of this study is in using three related conflict exposure measures: household within 5 km of conflict locality, 10 km of conflict locality, and self-reported (a proxy for direct exposure) to capture both effects from violence and insecurity from the insurgency. We find between 13.5 and 30 percent reduction in consumption expenditure two to three years after the cessation of hostilities compared to during the armed conflict. Furthermore, the reduction in food consumption expenditure is still evident six years after the cessation of hostilities compared to during the conflict, albeit of lower magnitude than the period immediately after the cessation of hostilities. In the immediate period after the end of hostilities, households continue to rely on consumption from market purchases and transfers and less on their own produced food. In the medium period, directly affected families significantly rely on transfers (in-kind and cash) for sustenance. Regarding households’ recovery, we find no significant differences in returns to land between homes exposed to violence and insecurity and those not exposed while returns to skilled labor increase. Social safety nets, opportunities for non-farm employment, and efforts to improve agriculture production are some of the policy options to assist in the recovery of households following a conflict.