IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/jocore/v65y2021i9p1521-1550.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Genocide, Politicide, and the Prospects of Democratization since 1900

Author

Listed:
  • Gary Uzonyi
  • Nam Kyu Kim
  • Nakissa Jahanbani
  • Victor Asal

Abstract

Why do some autocracies democratize? A country’s violent past has received little attention. We argue that genocide and politicide undermine democratization by binding the elites’ supporters more tightly to the governing power, while cementing in-group/out-group animosities, and helping preserve the elites’ status quo position within the state. We test this argument on a new dataset of government atrocity and democratization since 1900. These novel data allow us to capture many important instances of atrocity missed by others, and thus take a longer look at democratization and violence throughout history. We find that episodes of genocide and politicide are associated with a lower likelihood of democratization in both the short and long run. These effects are larger and more consistent than other common explanations for democratization. They also differ from the effects of non-genocidal civil war violence.

Suggested Citation

  • Gary Uzonyi & Nam Kyu Kim & Nakissa Jahanbani & Victor Asal, 2021. "Genocide, Politicide, and the Prospects of Democratization since 1900," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 65(9), pages 1521-1550, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:65:y:2021:i:9:p:1521-1550
    DOI: 10.1177/00220027211000445
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/00220027211000445
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/00220027211000445?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pieter Serneels & Marijke Verpoorten, 2015. "The Impact of Armed Conflict on Economic Performance," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 59(4), pages 555-592, June.
    2. Albertus,Michael & Menaldo,Victor, 2018. "Authoritarianism and the Elite Origins of Democracy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781316649039.
    3. Jutta Bolt & Jan Luiten Zanden, 2014. "The Maddison Project: collaborative research on historical national accounts," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 67(3), pages 627-651, August.
    4. Joshua D. Angrist & Jörn-Steffen Pischke, 2009. "Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 8769.
    5. Daniel Krcmaric, 2018. "Should I Stay or Should I Go? Leaders, Exile, and the Dilemmas of International Justice," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 62(2), pages 486-498, April.
    6. van der Maat, Eelco, 2020. "Genocidal Consolidation: Final Solutions to Elite Rivalry," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 74(4), pages 773-809, October.
    7. Albertus,Michael & Menaldo,Victor, 2018. "Authoritarianism and the Elite Origins of Democracy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107199828.
    8. Przeworski,Adam & Alvarez,Michael E. & Cheibub,Jose Antonio & Limongi,Fernando, 2000. "Democracy and Development," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521793797.
    9. Abadie, Alberto & Diamond, Alexis & Hainmueller, Jens, 2010. "Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 493-505.
    10. Przeworski,Adam & Alvarez,Michael E. & Cheibub,Jose Antonio & Limongi,Fernando, 2000. "Democracy and Development," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521790321.
    11. Gunitsky, Seva, 2014. "From Shocks to Waves: Hegemonic Transitions and Democratization in the Twentieth Century," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 68(3), pages 561-597, July.
    12. Charnysh, Volha & Finkel, Evgeny, 2017. "The Death Camp Eldorado: Political and Economic Effects of Mass Violence," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 111(4), pages 801-818, November.
    13. Harff, Barbara, 2003. "No Lessons Learned from the Holocaust? Assessing Risks of Genocide and Political Mass Murder since 1955," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 97(1), pages 57-73, February.
    14. Paul Collier & V. L. Elliott & Håvard Hegre & Anke Hoeffler & Marta Reynal-Querol & Nicholas Sambanis, 2003. "Breaking the Conflict Trap : Civil War and Development Policy," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13938.
    15. Iacus, Stefano M. & King, Gary & Porro, Giuseppe, 2012. "Causal Inference without Balance Checking: Coarsened Exact Matching," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(1), pages 1-24, January.
    16. Braun, Robert, 2016. "Religious Minorities and Resistance to Genocide: The Collective Rescue of Jews in the Netherlands during the Holocaust," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 110(1), pages 127-147, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bautista, M. A. & González, F. & Martínez, L. R. & Muñoz, P. & Prem, M., 2020. "Chile’s Missing Students: Dictatorship, Higher Education and Social Mobility," Documentos de Trabajo 18163, Universidad del Rosario.
    2. Becker, Sascha O. & Mukand, Sharun & Yotzov, Ivan, 2022. "Persecution, pogroms and genocide: A conceptual framework and new evidence," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    3. Leininger, Julia & Lührmann, Anna & Sigman, Rachel, 2019. "The relevance of social policies for democracy: preventing autocratisation through synergies between SDG 10 and SDG 16," IDOS Discussion Papers 7/2019, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    4. Michael Albertus & Victor Gay, 2019. "No better time than now: Future uncertainty and private investment under dictatorship," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 71-96, March.
    5. Christian Almer & Stefan Boes & Stephan Nüesch, 2017. "Adjustments in the housing market after an environmental shock: evidence from a large-scale change in aircraft noise exposure," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(4), pages 918-938.
    6. Susumu Annaka & Masaaki Higashijima, 2017. "Democratization and Human Development," Working Papers 1712, Waseda University, Faculty of Political Science and Economics.
    7. Stephan Litschig & Yves Zamboni, 2008. "Judicial presence and rent extraction," Economics Working Papers 1143, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Dec 2012.
    8. María Angelica Bautista & Felipe González & Luis R. Martínez & Pablo Munoz & Mounu Prem, 2018. "The Geography of Repression and Support for Democracy: Evidence from the Pinochet Dictatorship," Documentos de Trabajo 17007, Universidad del Rosario.
    9. Vahabi,Mehrdad, 2015. "The Political Economy of Predation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107133976.
    10. David Carment & Mark Haichin & Peter Tikuisis, 2017. "Backsliding and reversal: The J-Curve revisited," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2017-170, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    11. Arzi Adbi & Chirantan Chatterjee & Matej Drev & Anant Mishra, 2019. "When the Big One Came: A Natural Experiment on Demand Shock and Market Structure in India's Influenza Vaccine Markets," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 28(4), pages 810-832, April.
    12. Rachael Calleja & David Carment & Mark Haichin & Peter Tikuisis, 2017. "Backsliding and reversal: The J-Curve revisited," WIDER Working Paper Series 170, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    13. Tommaso Nannicini & Roberto Ricciuti, 2010. "Autocratic Transitions and Growth," CESifo Working Paper Series 2967, CESifo.
    14. Toke S. Aidt & Gabriel Leon, 2016. "The Democratic Window of Opportunity," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 60(4), pages 694-717, June.
    15. Michael McBride & Gary Milante & Stergios Skaperdas, 2011. "Peace and War With Endogenous State Capacity," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 55(3), pages 446-468, June.
    16. Lee, Alexander & Paine, Jack, 2019. "British colonialism and democracy: Divergent inheritances and diminishing legacies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 487-503.
    17. Marta Reynal-Querol, 2011. "National Security: Deterring and Surviving Civil Conflicts," Chapters, in: George Mavrotas (ed.), Security and Development, chapter 6, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    18. An, Jiafu & Duan, Tinghua & Hou, Wenxuan & Liu, Xianda, 2020. "The legacy of wars around the world: Evidence from military directors," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    19. Annaka, Susumu & Higashijima, Masaaki, 2021. "Political liberalization and human development: Dynamic effects of political regime change on infant mortality across three centuries (1800-2015)," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    20. Vahabi,Mehrdad, 2019. "The Political Economy of Predation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107591370.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:65:y:2021:i:9:p:1521-1550. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://pss.la.psu.edu/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.