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Rebel Recruitment and Migration: Theory and Evidence From Southern Senegal

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  • Max Schaub
  • Daniel Auer

Abstract

We investigate whether the threat of recruitment by rebel groups spurs domestic and international migration. The existing literature on wartime displacement has largely focused on potential victims of violence. We argue that alongside potential victims, we should expect to see the out-migration of individuals who are attractive to the rebels as potential recruits. To test this hypothesis, we draw on original survey data collected in the context of the MFDC insurgency in southern Senegal. Causal identification stems from instrumenting recruitment threat with the density of the local forest canopy cover. Analyzing data from 3,200 respondents and over 24,000 family members, we show that individuals who fit the recruitment profiles of rebel groups are more likely to leave and be sent away by their families. Our paper contributes micro-evidence for a mechanism linking violent conflict to migration, which so far has received scant attention, and provides a deeper understanding of the composition of refugee flows.

Suggested Citation

  • Max Schaub & Daniel Auer, 2023. "Rebel Recruitment and Migration: Theory and Evidence From Southern Senegal," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 67(6), pages 1155-1182, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:67:y:2023:i:6:p:1155-1182
    DOI: 10.1177/00220027221118258
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mathias Czaika & Krisztina Kis-Katos, 2009. "Civil Conflict and Displacement: Village-Level Determinants of Forced Migration in Aceh," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 46(3), pages 399-418, May.
    2. Stathis N. Kalyvas, 1999. "Wanton And Senseless?," Rationality and Society, , vol. 11(3), pages 243-285, August.
    3. Oded Stark, 1991. "The Migration of Labor," Blackwell Books, Wiley Blackwell, number 1557860300, April.
    4. Engel, Stefanie & Ibanez, Ana Maria, 2007. "Displacement Due to Violence in Colombia: A Household-Level Analysis," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 55(2), pages 335-365, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Daniel Meierrieks & Max Schaub, 2024. "Terrorism and child mortality," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(1), pages 21-40, January.

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