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The effect of climate change and adaptation policy on agricultural production in Eastern Africa

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  • Kahsay, Goytom Abraha
  • Hansen, Lars Gårn

Abstract

We estimate the production function for agricultural output in Eastern Africa incorporating climate variables disaggregated into growing and non-growing seasons. We find a substantial negative effect of within growing season variance of precipitation. We simulate predicted climate change for the region and find a resulting output reduction of between 1.2% and 4.5%. Our simulation also demonstrates substantial potential for economic benefits from mitigating the effects of within growing season precipitation variability through conventional technologies such as flexible planting and rainwater harvesting on the same scale as the potential loss from predicted climate change.

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  • Kahsay, Goytom Abraha & Hansen, Lars Gårn, 2016. "The effect of climate change and adaptation policy on agricultural production in Eastern Africa," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 54-64.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:121:y:2016:i:c:p:54-64
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2015.11.016
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    Cited by:

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    5. Jean Galbert, ONGONO OLINGA, 2023. "Agricultural Productivity and Climate Change: An Evidence of a non-linear Relationship in Sub-Saharan Africa," MPRA Paper 117669, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Michée A. Lachaud & Boris E. Bravo‐Ureta, 2021. "Agricultural productivity growth in Latin America and the Caribbean: an analysis of climatic effects, catch‐up and convergence," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 65(1), pages 143-170, January.
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    9. Veljanoska, Stefanija, 2018. "Can Land Fragmentation Reduce the Exposure of Rural Households to Weather Variability?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 42-51.
    10. Mubenga-Tshitaka, Jean-Luc & Muteba Mwamba, John W. & Dikgang, Johane & Gelo, Dambala, 2021. "Risk spillover between climate variables and the agricultural commodity market in East Africa," EconStor Preprints 243160, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    11. Khanal, Uttam & Wilson, Clevo & Hoang, Viet-Ngu & Lee, Boon, 2018. "Farmers' Adaptation to Climate Change, Its Determinants and Impacts on Rice Yield in Nepal," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 139-147.
    12. Stefanija Veljanoska, 2017. "Can Land Fragmentation Reduce the Exposure of Rural Households to Weather Variability?," Policy Papers 2017.02, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.
    13. Takuto Sakamoto, 2016. "Mobility and Sustainability: A Computational Model of African Pastoralists," Journal of Management and Sustainability, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 6(1), pages 59-75, March.
    14. Stefanija Veljanoska, 2017. "Can Land Fragmentation Reduce the Exposure of Rural Households to Weather Variability?," Working Papers 2017.08, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.
    15. Mohammad Rondhi & Ahmad Fatikhul Khasan & Yasuhiro Mori & Takumi Kondo, 2019. "Assessing the Role of the Perceived Impact of Climate Change on National Adaptation Policy: The Case of Rice Farming in Indonesia," Land, MDPI, vol. 8(5), pages 1-21, May.
    16. Sitko, Nicholas J. & Scognamillo, Antonio & Malevolti, Giulia, 2021. "Does receiving food aid influence the adoption of climate-adaptive agricultural practices? Evidence from Ethiopia and Malawi," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    17. Amadu, Festus O. & Miller, Daniel C. & McNamara, Paul E., 2020. "Agroforestry as a pathway to agricultural yield impacts in climate-smart agriculture investments: Evidence from southern Malawi," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    18. Meselu Tegenie Mellaku & Travis W. Reynolds & Teshale Woldeamanuel, 2018. "Linear Programming-Based Cropland Allocation to Enhance Performance of Smallholder Crop Production: A Pilot Study in Abaro Kebele, Ethiopia," Resources, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-15, November.
    19. Clifford James Fagariba & Shaoxian Song & Serge Kevin Gildas Soule Baoro, 2018. "Climate Change Adaptation Strategies and Constraints in Northern Ghana: Evidence of Farmers in Sissala West District," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-18, May.
    20. Mubenga-Tshitaka, Jean-Luc & Gelo, Dambala & Dikgang, Johane & Mwamba, Muteba, 2021. "Panel threshold effect of climate variability on agricultural output in Eastern African countries," MPRA Paper 108721, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate change; Adaptation policy; Eastern Africa; Agricultural production;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

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