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Spillovers between sovereign CDS and exchange rate markets: The role of market fear

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  • Feng, Qianqian
  • Sun, Xiaolei
  • Liu, Chang
  • Li, Jianping

Abstract

As important variables in financial market, sovereign credit default swaps (CDS) and exchange rate have correlations and spillovers. And the volatility spillovers between the two markets become further complicated with the effect of market fear caused by extreme events such as global pandemic. This paper attempts to explore the complex interactions within the “sovereign CDS-exchange rate” system by adopting the forecast error variance decomposition method. The results show that there is a relatively close linkage between the two markets and the total spillover index of the system is dynamic. For most of the past, the exchange rate has a higher spillover effect on the sovereign CDS than vice versa. Moreover, after the market fear variables are introduced, the “sovereign CDS-exchange rate” system and market fear variables present bidirectional spillovers. The results of the study have particular significance for maintaining the financial stability and preventing risk contagion between markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Feng, Qianqian & Sun, Xiaolei & Liu, Chang & Li, Jianping, 2021. "Spillovers between sovereign CDS and exchange rate markets: The role of market fear," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:55:y:2021:i:c:s1062940820301960
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2020.101308
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    Cited by:

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    3. Baptista Palazzi, Rafael & Van Huellen, Sophie, 2024. "Can Fuel Policies Tame Exchange Rate Volatility? Fuel Policy Legacy in Brazil," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 343668, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Gök, Remzi & Bouri, Elie & Gemici, Eray, 2023. "Volatility spillovers between sovereign CDS and futures markets in various volatility states: Evidence from an emerging economy around the pandemic," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    5. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Senthilkumar, Arunachalam & Arfaoui, Nadia & Mohnot, Rajesh, 2024. "Mapping fear in financial markets: Insights from dynamic networks and centrality measures," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    6. Zhizhen Chen & Guifen Shi & Boyang Sun, 2024. "Cross-border spillovers in G20 sovereign CDS markets: cluster analysis based on K-means machine learning algorithm and TVP–VAR models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(6), pages 2463-2502, December.
    7. Liu, Peipei & Huang, Wei-Qiang, 2022. "Modelling international sovereign risk information spillovers: A multilayer network approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    8. Wang, Qunwei & Liu, Mengmeng & Xiao, Ling & Dai, Xingyu & Li, Matthew C. & Wu, Fei, 2022. "Conditional sovereign CDS in market basket risk scenario: A dynamic vine-copula analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    9. Huang, Wei-Qiang & Liu, Peipei, 2023. "Cross-market risk spillovers among sovereign CDS, stock, foreign exchange and commodity markets: An interacting network perspective," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    10. Reinhold Heinlein & Gabriella D. Legrenzi & Scott M. R. Mahadeo & Gabriella Deborah Legrenzi, 2024. "Exchange Rates and Sovereign Risk: A Nonlinear Approach Based on Local Gaussian Correlations," CESifo Working Paper Series 11019, CESifo.
    11. Lu Yang & Lei Yang & Xue Cui, 2023. "Sovereign default network and currency risk premia," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-22, December.
    12. Ozcan Ceylan, 2023. "Analysis of Dynamic Connectedness among Sovereign CDS Premia," World Journal of Applied Economics, WERI-World Economic Research Institute, vol. 9(1), pages 33-47, June.
    13. Shen, Yiran & Liu, Chang & Sun, Xiaolei & Guo, Kun, 2023. "Investor sentiment and the Chinese new energy stock market: A risk–return perspective," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 395-408.
    14. Yang, Lu & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2023. "Modeling the global sovereign credit network under climate change," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Market fear; Sovereign CDS; Exchange rate; Spillover effect; Spillover network;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy

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