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Information transmission between sovereign debt CDS and other financial factors – The case of Latin America

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  • Wang, Alan T.
  • Yang, Sheng-Yung
  • Yang, Nien-Tzu

Abstract

This paper extends previous research by investigating the intertemporal causality relationships between daily Latin America sovereign credit default swap (CDS) returns and other financial sovereign debt spread determinants. The empirical results indicate that information in sovereign CDS can both lead and lag these financial determinants. Specifically, country financial variables, including exchange rates and lending spreads, and global financial variables including 10-U.S. Treasury yields, VIX and TED spreads, are important determinants for future sovereign CDS price movements. The findings provide investment implications for international financial markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Alan T. & Yang, Sheng-Yung & Yang, Nien-Tzu, 2013. "Information transmission between sovereign debt CDS and other financial factors – The case of Latin America," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 586-601.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:26:y:2013:i:c:p:586-601
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2013.02.023
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    2. He, Zhipeng & Zhang, Shuguang, 2024. "Risk contagion and diversification among sovereign CDS, stock, foreign exchange and commodity markets: Fresh evidence from G7 and BRICS countries," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(PB).
    3. Boonlert Jitmaneeroj & John Ogwang, 2016. "An Empirical Analysis of Sovereign Credit Risk Co-movement between Japan and ASEAN Countries," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 8(4), pages 6-16.
    4. Haddou, Samira, 2024. "Determinants of CDS in core and peripheral European countries: A comparative study during crisis and calm periods," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    5. Stolbov, Mikhail, 2014. "The causal linkages between sovereign CDS prices for the BRICS and major European economies," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 8, pages 1-43.
    6. Gabriel Caldas Montes & Iven Silva Valpassos, 2018. "Discretionary fiscal policy and sovereign risk," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(3), pages 1343-1365.
    7. Chia-Lin Chang & Allen, David & McAleer, Michael, 2013. "Recent developments in financial economics and econometrics: An overview," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 217-226.
    8. Maria E. de Boyrie & Ivelina Pavlova, 2016. "Dynamic interdependence of sovereign credit default swaps in BRICS and MIST countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(7), pages 563-575, February.
    9. El Abed, Riadh & Zardoub, Amna, 2017. "Time varying and asymmetric effect between sovereign credit market and financial market: The asymmetric DCC model," Economics Discussion Papers 2017-97, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    10. Zhizhen Chen & Guifen Shi & Boyang Sun, 2024. "Cross-border spillovers in G20 sovereign CDS markets: cluster analysis based on K-means machine learning algorithm and TVP–VAR models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(6), pages 2463-2502, December.
    11. Gonzalez-Perez, Maria T., 2015. "Model-free volatility indexes in the financial literature: A review," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 141-159.
    12. Feng, Qianqian & Sun, Xiaolei & Liu, Chang & Li, Jianping, 2021. "Spillovers between sovereign CDS and exchange rate markets: The role of market fear," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    13. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Souza, Ivan, 2020. "Sovereign default risk, debt uncertainty and fiscal credibility: The case of Brazil," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    14. Wang, Qunwei & Liu, Mengmeng & Xiao, Ling & Dai, Xingyu & Li, Matthew C. & Wu, Fei, 2022. "Conditional sovereign CDS in market basket risk scenario: A dynamic vine-copula analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    15. Jung Park, Yuen & Kutan, Ali M. & Ryu, Doojin, 2019. "The impacts of overseas market shocks on the CDS-option basis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 622-636.
    16. Chen, Mei-Ping & Chen, Pei-Fen & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2014. "Frontier stock market integration and the global financial crisis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 84-103.
    17. Chikashi Tsuji, 2016. "Did the expectations channel work? Evidence from quantitative easing in Japan, 2001–06," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1210996-121, December.
    18. Li, Yue & W. Goodell, John & Shen, Dehua, 2021. "Does happiness forecast implied volatility? Evidence from nonparametric wave-based Granger causality testing," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 113-122.
    19. Prayer M. Rikhotso & Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne, 2022. "Dependence Structures between Sovereign Credit Default Swaps and Global Risk Factors in BRICS Countries," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-22, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign debt; CDS; VIX; TED; VECM;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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