IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecofin/v53y2020ics1062940820300930.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Time-dependent lead-lag relationships between the VIX and VIX futures markets

Author

Listed:
  • Yang, Yan-Hong
  • Shao, Ying-Hui

Abstract

We utilize the symmetric thermal optimal path (TOPS) method to examine the dynamic interaction patterns between the VIX and VIX futures markets for the period March 26, 2004 to June 19, 2017. We document that the VIX dominates the VIX futures more in the first few years, especially before the introduction of VIX options. We further observe that the TOPS paths show an alternate lead-lag relationship instead of a dominance between the VIX and VIX futures in most of the time periods. Meanwhile, we find that the VIX futures have been increasingly more important in the price discovery since the launch of several VIX ETPs.

Suggested Citation

  • Yang, Yan-Hong & Shao, Ying-Hui, 2020. "Time-dependent lead-lag relationships between the VIX and VIX futures markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:53:y:2020:i:c:s1062940820300930
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2020.101196
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1062940820300930
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.najef.2020.101196?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shao, Ying-Hui & Yang, Yan-Hong & Shao, Hao-Lin & Stanley, H. Eugene, 2019. "Time-varying lead–lag structure between the crude oil spot and futures markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 523(C), pages 723-733.
    2. Ren, Fei & Ji, Shen-Dan & Cai, Mei-Ling & Li, Sai-Ping & Jiang, Xiong-Fei, 2019. "Dynamic lead–lag relationship between stock indices and their derivatives: A comparative study between Chinese mainland, Hong Kong and US stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 513(C), pages 709-723.
    3. Kun Guo & Wei-Xing Zhou & Si-Wei Cheng & Didier Sornette, 2011. "The US Stock Market Leads the Federal Funds Rate and Treasury Bond Yields," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(8), pages 1-9, August.
    4. Didier Sornette & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2005. "Non-parametric determination of real-time lag structure between two time series: the 'optimal thermal causal path' method," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(6), pages 577-591.
    5. Adrian Fernandez‐Perez & Bart Frijns & Alireza Tourani‐Rad & Robert I. Webb, 2019. "Does increased hedging lead to decreased price efficiency? The case of VIX ETPs and VIX futures," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 54(3), pages 477-500, August.
    6. Hao Meng & Hai-Chuan Xu & Wei-Xing Zhou & Didier Sornette, 2017. "Symmetric thermal optimal path and time-dependent lead-lag relationship: novel statistical tests and application to UK and US real-estate and monetary policies," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(6), pages 959-977, June.
    7. Wang, Tao & Yang, Jian, 2010. "Nonlinearity and intraday efficiency tests on energy futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 496-503, March.
    8. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gungor, Hasan & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2015. "The time-varying causality between spot and futures crude oil prices: A regime switching approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 51-71.
    9. Bekiros, Stelios D. & Diks, Cees G.H., 2008. "The relationship between crude oil spot and futures prices: Cointegration, linear and nonlinear causality," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2673-2685, September.
    10. Xu, Hai-Chuan & Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier, 2017. "Time-dependent lead-lag relationship between the onshore and offshore Renminbi exchange rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 173-183.
    11. Guo, Kun & Sun, Yi & Qian, Xin, 2017. "Can investor sentiment be used to predict the stock price? Dynamic analysis based on China stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 469(C), pages 390-396.
    12. Wang, Xuan & Guo, Kun & Lu, Xiaolin, 2016. "The long-run dynamic relationship between exchange rate and its attention index: Based on DCCA and TOP method," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 453(C), pages 108-115.
    13. Fama, Eugene F, 1991. "Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-1617, December.
    14. Donghua Wang & Jingqing Tu & Xiaohui Chang & Saiping Li, 2017. "The lead–lag relationship between the spot and futures markets in China," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(9), pages 1447-1456, September.
    15. Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier, 2006. "Non-parametric determination of real-time lag structure between two time series: The "optimal thermal causal path" method with applications to economic data," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 195-224, March.
    16. Chen, Yu-Lun & Tsai, Wei-Che, 2017. "Determinants of price discovery in the VIX futures market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 59-73.
    17. Ashley, R & Granger, C W J & Schmalensee, R, 1980. "Advertising and Aggregate Consumption: An Analysis of Causality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1149-1167, July.
    18. Jinghong Shu & Jin E. Zhang, 2012. "Causality in the VIX futures market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(1), pages 24-46, January.
    19. Jiang, Tao & Bao, Si & Li, Long, 2019. "The linear and nonlinear lead–lag relationship among three SSE 50 Index markets: The index futures, 50ETF spot and options markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 525(C), pages 878-893.
    20. Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier, 2007. "Lead-lag cross-sectional structure and detection of correlated–anticorrelated regime shifts: Application to the volatilities of inflation and economic growth rates," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 380(C), pages 287-296.
    21. Bart Frijns & Alireza Tourani‐Rad & Robert I. Webb, 2016. "On the Intraday Relation Between the VIX and its Futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(9), pages 870-886, September.
    22. Nicolas P.B. Bollen & Michael J. O'Neill & Robert E. Whaley, 2017. "Tail Wags Dog: Intraday Price Discovery in VIX Markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(5), pages 431-451, May.
    23. Yao, Can-Zhong & Kuang, Peng-Cheng, 2019. "A study of lead–lag structure between international crude oil price and several financial markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 531(C).
    24. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    25. Yang, Yan-Hong & Shao, Ying-Hui & Shao, Hao-Lin & Stanley, H. Eugene, 2019. "Revisiting the weak-form efficiency of the EUR/CHF exchange rate market: Evidence from episodes of different Swiss franc regimes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 523(C), pages 734-746.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Shao, Ying-Hui & Yang, Yan-Hong & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2022. "How does economic policy uncertainty comove with stock markets: New evidence from symmetric thermal optimal path method," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 604(C).
    2. Yao Wang & Jingmei Zhao & Qing Li & Xiangyu Wei, 2024. "Considering momentum spillover effects via graph neural network in option pricing," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(6), pages 1069-1094, June.
    3. Chen, Zhang-Hangjian & Chu, Wei-Wei & Gao, Xiang & Koedijk, Kees G. & Xu, Yaping, 2024. "Extreme weather, climate risk, and the lead–lag role of carbon," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    4. Chen, Zhang-HangJian & Ren, Fei & Yang, Ming-Yuan & Lu, Feng-Zhi & Li, Sai-Ping, 2023. "Dynamic lead–lag relationship between Chinese carbon emission trading and stock markets under exogenous shocks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 295-305.
    5. Huang, Yisu & Xu, Weiju & Huang, Dengshi & Zhao, Chenchen, 2023. "Chinese crude oil futures volatility and sustainability: An uncertainty indices perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    6. Liu, Wenwen & Gui, Yiming & Qiao, Gaoxiu, 2022. "Dynamics lead-lag relationship of jumps among Chinese stock index and futures market during the Covid-19 epidemic," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    7. Pradhan, Rudra P. & Hall, John H. & du Toit, Elda, 2021. "The lead–lag relationship between spot and futures prices: Empirical evidence from the Indian commodity market," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    8. Yan-Hong Yang & Ying-Hui Shao & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2024. "Quantile connectedness across BRICS and international grain futures markets: Insights from the Russia-Ukraine conflict," Papers 2409.19307, arXiv.org.
    9. Aljohani, Bader M. & Fadul, Abubaker & Asiri, Maram S. & Alkhathami, Abdulrahman D. & Hasan, Fakhrul, 2024. "Volatility transmission in the property market during two inflationary periods: The 2008–2009 global financial crisis and the COVID-19 crisis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(PB).
    10. Zhu, Huimin & Xiao, Xinping & Kang, Yuxiao & Kong, Dekai, 2022. "Lead-lag grey forecasting model in the new community group buying retailing," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yan-Hong Yang & Ying-Hui Shao, 2019. "Time-dependent lead-lag relationships between the VIX and VIX futures markets," Papers 1910.13729, arXiv.org.
    2. Shao, Ying-Hui & Yang, Yan-Hong & Shao, Hao-Lin & Stanley, H. Eugene, 2019. "Time-varying lead–lag structure between the crude oil spot and futures markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 523(C), pages 723-733.
    3. Yao, Can-Zhong & Li, Hong-Yu, 2020. "Time-varying lead–lag structure between investor sentiment and stock market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    4. Jiang, Tao & Bao, Si & Li, Long, 2019. "The linear and nonlinear lead–lag relationship among three SSE 50 Index markets: The index futures, 50ETF spot and options markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 525(C), pages 878-893.
    5. Shao, Ying-Hui & Yang, Yan-Hong & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2022. "How does economic policy uncertainty comove with stock markets: New evidence from symmetric thermal optimal path method," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 604(C).
    6. Yuan, Xianghui & Jin, Liwei & Lian, Feng, 2021. "The lead–lag relationship between Chinese mainland and Hong Kong stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 574(C).
    7. Xu, Hai-Chuan & Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier, 2017. "Time-dependent lead-lag relationship between the onshore and offshore Renminbi exchange rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 173-183.
    8. Anders Merrild Posselt, 2022. "Dynamics in the VIX complex," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(9), pages 1665-1687, September.
    9. Fei Ren & Mei-Ling Cai & Sai-Ping Li & Xiong Xiong & Zhang-HangJian Chen, 2023. "A Multi-market Comparison of the Intraday Lead–Lag Relations Among Stock Index-Based Spot, Futures and Options," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 62(1), pages 1-28, June.
    10. Liwei Jin & Xianghui Yuan & Jun Long & Xiang Li & Feng Lian, 2022. "Price discovery in the CSI 300 Index derivatives markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(7), pages 1352-1368, July.
    11. Zhang, Yongjie & Zhang, Zuochao & Liu, Lanbiao & Shen, Dehua, 2017. "The interaction of financial news between mass media and new media: Evidence from news on Chinese stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 486(C), pages 535-541.
    12. Bangsgaard, Christine & Kokholm, Thomas, 2024. "The lead–lag relation between VIX futures and SPX futures," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    13. Jia, Rui-Lin & Wang, Dong-Hua & Tu, Jing-Qing & Li, Sai-Ping, 2016. "Correlation between agricultural markets in dynamic perspective—Evidence from China and the US futures markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 464(C), pages 83-92.
    14. Guo, Kun & Sun, Yi & Qian, Xin, 2017. "Can investor sentiment be used to predict the stock price? Dynamic analysis based on China stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 469(C), pages 390-396.
    15. Wang, Xuan & Guo, Kun & Lu, Xiaolin, 2016. "The long-run dynamic relationship between exchange rate and its attention index: Based on DCCA and TOP method," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 453(C), pages 108-115.
    16. Pradhan, Rudra P. & Hall, John H. & du Toit, Elda, 2021. "The lead–lag relationship between spot and futures prices: Empirical evidence from the Indian commodity market," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    17. Yousra Trichilli & Mouna Abdelhédi & Mouna Boujelbène Abbes, 2020. "The thermal optimal path model: Does Google search queries help to predict dynamic relationship between investor’s sentiment and indexes returns?," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 21(3), pages 261-279, May.
    18. Yao, Can-Zhong & Lin, Ji-Nan & Lin, Qing-Wen & Zheng, Xu-Zhou & Liu, Xiao-Feng, 2016. "A study of causality structure and dynamics in industrial electricity consumption based on Granger network," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 462(C), pages 297-320.
    19. Gong, Chen-Chen & Ji, Shen-Dan & Su, Li-Ling & Li, Sai-Ping & Ren, Fei, 2016. "The lead–lag relationship between stock index and stock index futures: A thermal optimal path method," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 444(C), pages 63-72.
    20. Chen, Yu-Lun & Yang, J. Jimmy, 2021. "Trader positions in VIX futures," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-17.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    VIX; VIX futures; Lead-lag relationship; Symmetric thermal optimal path;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:53:y:2020:i:c:s1062940820300930. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620163 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.