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Tail Wags Dog: Intraday Price Discovery in VIX Markets

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  • Nicolas P.B. Bollen
  • Michael J. O'Neill
  • Robert E. Whaley

Abstract

Beginning with VIX futures in 2004, followed by VIX options in 2006 and VIX ETPs in 2009, the daily open interest in volatility contracts is now in the tens of billions of dollars. Given this growth, it is important to develop a better understanding of price discovery and the supply/demand dynamics in each market. Some of the price relations are linked by arbitrage. Others are not. In particular, the relation between the VIX cash index and the VIX futures is not arbitraged, and we show that, where once VIX changes led VIX futures price changes, the VIX futures now leads. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 37:431–451, 2017

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolas P.B. Bollen & Michael J. O'Neill & Robert E. Whaley, 2017. "Tail Wags Dog: Intraday Price Discovery in VIX Markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(5), pages 431-451, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:37:y:2017:i:5:p:431-451
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    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Yu-Lun & Yang, J. Jimmy, 2021. "Trader positions in VIX futures," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-17.
    2. Ruan, Xinfeng & Zhang, Jin E., 2021. "The economics of the financial market for volatility trading," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    3. Yang, Yan-Hong & Shao, Ying-Hui, 2020. "Time-dependent lead-lag relationships between the VIX and VIX futures markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    4. Anders Merrild Posselt, 2022. "Dynamics in the VIX complex," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(9), pages 1665-1687, September.
    5. Adrian Fernandez‐Perez & Bart Frijns & Ilnara Gafiatullina & Alireza Tourani‐Rad, 2018. "Determinants of intraday price discovery in VIX exchange traded notes," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(5), pages 535-548, May.
    6. Christensen, Kim & Christiansen, Charlotte & Posselt, Anders M., 2020. "The economic value of VIX ETPs," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 121-138.
    7. Sebastian A. Gehricke & Jin E. Zhang, 2020. "Modeling VXX under jump diffusion with stochastic long‐term mean," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(10), pages 1508-1534, October.
    8. Takaki Hayashi & Yuta Koike, 2017. "No arbitrage and lead-lag relationships," Papers 1712.09854, arXiv.org.
    9. Poutré, Cédric & Dionne, Georges & Yergeau, Gabriel, 2024. "The profitability of lead–lag arbitrage at high frequency," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 1002-1021.
    10. Elvira Caloiero & Massimo Guidolin, 2017. "Volatility as an Alternative asset Class: Does It Improve Portfolio Performance?," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1763, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    11. Dian‐Xuan Kao & Wei‐Che Tsai & Yaw‐Huei Wang & Kuang‐Chieh Yen, 2018. "An analysis on the intraday trading activity of VIX derivatives," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(2), pages 158-174, February.
    12. Yi‐Wei Chuang & Wei‐Che Tsai & Ming‐Hung Wu, 2020. "The impact of net buying pressure on VIX option prices," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(2), pages 209-227, February.
    13. Bangsgaard, Christine & Kokholm, Thomas, 2024. "The lead–lag relation between VIX futures and SPX futures," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    14. Ole Linnemann Nielsen & Anders Merrild Posselt, 2022. "Betting on mean reversion in the VIX? Evidence from ETP flows," CREATES Research Papers 2022-06, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    15. Sebastian A. Gehricke & Jin E. Zhang, 2018. "Modeling VXX," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(8), pages 958-976, August.
    16. Pagano, Marco & Sánchez Serrano, Antonio & Zechner, Jozef, 2019. "Can ETFs contribute to systemic risk?," Report of the Advisory Scientific Committee 9, European Systemic Risk Board.
    17. Alexander, Carol & Heck, Daniel F., 2020. "Price discovery in Bitcoin: The impact of unregulated markets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    18. Gehricke, Sebastian A. & Zhang, Jin E., 2021. "Tracking performance of VIX futures ETPs," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 103-117.
    19. Ruan, Xinfeng & Zhang, Jin E., 2018. "Risk-neutral moments in the crude oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 583-600.
    20. Hayashi, Takaki & Koike, Yuta, 2019. "No arbitrage and lead–lag relationships," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 1-1.
    21. Yan-Hong Yang & Ying-Hui Shao, 2019. "Time-dependent lead-lag relationships between the VIX and VIX futures markets," Papers 1910.13729, arXiv.org.
    22. George O. Aragon & Rajnish Mehra & Sunil Wahal, 2018. "Do Properly Anticipated Prices Fluctuate Randomly? Evidence from VIX Futures Markets," NBER Working Papers 24575, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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