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Dynamics lead-lag relationship of jumps among Chinese stock index and futures market during the Covid-19 epidemic

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  • Liu, Wenwen
  • Gui, Yiming
  • Qiao, Gaoxiu

Abstract

This paper introduces thermal optimal path method to investigate the dynamics lead-lag relationship of jumps among Chinese stock index and futures market under the background of the Covid-19 epidemic. Based on three representative stock indexes and their index futures in China, we find the lead-lag structure changes significantly before and after the outbreak of COVID-19. Before the epidemic, there is mutual effect between different markets jumps. However, CSI 300 futures and SSE 50 futures significantly lead other markets for the after-epidemic period. For the volatility forecasting based on cross-market jumps, the lagged jumps of CSI 300 and SSE 50 index futures have significantly impacts on the volatility forecast of other markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Wenwen & Gui, Yiming & Qiao, Gaoxiu, 2022. "Dynamics lead-lag relationship of jumps among Chinese stock index and futures market during the Covid-19 epidemic," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:61:y:2022:i:c:s0275531922000575
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2022.101669
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    1. Long, Shaobo & Guo, Jiaqi, 2022. "Infectious disease equity market volatility, geopolitical risk, speculation, and commodity returns: Comparative analysis of five epidemic outbreaks," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Jumps; Thermal optimal path; Dynamics lead-lag relationship; Covid-19 epidemic; Stock index and futures;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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