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Dynamic lead–lag relationship between Chinese carbon emission trading and stock markets under exogenous shocks

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  • Chen, Zhang-HangJian
  • Ren, Fei
  • Yang, Ming-Yuan
  • Lu, Feng-Zhi
  • Li, Sai-Ping

Abstract

Using the non-parametric thermal optimal path method, we investigate the dynamic lead–lag relationship between carbon emission trading and stock markets in China, and further consider the impact of different types of exogenous shocks on the lead–lag relationship. The empirical results show that the stock market leads the carbon market on most trading days, and the relationship reverses when the mean values of carbon market return are significantly smaller than zero. In addition, the lead–lag relationships when the carbon market leads the high energy-consuming stock market sectors are more obvious. We also find that there exist significant heterogeneous effects of different types of exogenous shocks on the lead–lag relationship between the two markets, including government policy, the Sino-US trade war and the Covid-19 outbreak. These findings have the potential to help regulators understand the interrelationship between components of the financial market, and be of great value for investors to optimize portfolio allocation by incorporating carbon assets into the portfolio.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Zhang-HangJian & Ren, Fei & Yang, Ming-Yuan & Lu, Feng-Zhi & Li, Sai-Ping, 2023. "Dynamic lead–lag relationship between Chinese carbon emission trading and stock markets under exogenous shocks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 295-305.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:85:y:2023:i:c:p:295-305
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2023.01.028
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    Cited by:

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    2. Chen, Zhang-HangJian & Wu, Wang-Long & Li, Sai-Ping & Bao, Kun & Koedijk, Kees G., 2024. "Social media information diffusion and excess stock returns co-movement," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    3. Bingqiang Li & Xi Li & Jinzhi Li & Hongchun Lin & Baojuan Rui, 2023. "Empirical Analysis of Export Tax Rebate on Inwards Foreign Direct Investment in China," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(4), pages 21582440231, December.
    4. Wu, Ruirui & Qin, Zhongfeng, 2024. "Asymmetric volatility spillovers among new energy, ESG, green bond and carbon markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).
    5. Mosab I. Tabash & Mujeeb Saif Mohsen Al-Absy & Azzam Hannoon, 2024. "Modeling the Nexus between European Carbon Emission Trading and Financial Market Returns: Practical Implications for Carbon Risk Reduction and Hedging," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 17(4), pages 1-29, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Carbon emission trading market; Stock market; Lead–lag relationship; Exogenous shocks; Thermal optimal path;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General

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