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Sovereign default risk in OECD countries: Do global factors matter?

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  • Ordoñez-Callamand, Daniel
  • Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose Eduardo
  • Melo-Velandia, Luis Fernando

Abstract

We study the determinants of sovereign default risk for a group of 23 OECD countries using quarterly data spanning the period between 2000:Q1 and 2016:Q3. Applying the recently developed panel dynamic heterogeneous common correlated effects estimator of Chudik and Pesaran (2015) our study innovates in considering potential endogeneity issues and cross-sectional dependence. We control for both global risk appetite and monetary policy stance, as well as country risk ratings. The results show that common factors are the main drivers of solvency risk for our set of countries. Specially relevant, we find that macroeconomic determinants are not significant predictors of long-term sovereign spreads.

Suggested Citation

  • Ordoñez-Callamand, Daniel & Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose Eduardo & Melo-Velandia, Luis Fernando, 2017. "Sovereign default risk in OECD countries: Do global factors matter?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 629-639.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:42:y:2017:i:c:p:629-639
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2017.09.008
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    2. Chang, Chun-Ping & Wen, Jun & Zheng, Mingbo & Dong, Minyi & Hao, Yu, 2018. "Is higher government efficiency conducive to improving energy use efficiency? Evidence from OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 65-77.
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    5. Giraldo, Carlos & Giraldo, Iader & Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose E. & Uribe, Jorge M., 2023. "An explained extreme gradient boosting approach for identifying the time-varying determinants of sovereign risk," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    6. Malliaropulos, Dimitris & Migiakis, Petros, 2018. "The re-pricing of sovereign risks following the Global Financial Crisis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 39-56.
    7. Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose E. & Valencia, Oscar M. & Sánchez, Gustavo A., 2022. "How fiscal rules can reduce sovereign debt default risk," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    8. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Souza, Ivan, 2020. "Sovereign default risk, debt uncertainty and fiscal credibility: The case of Brazil," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dynamic heterogeneous panel; Sovereign default risk; Common correlated effects;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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