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Sovereign bond yield spreads and market sentiment and expectations: Empirical evidence from Euro area countries

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  • Aristei, David
  • Martelli, Duccio

Abstract

The paper investigates the determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads in the Euro area and extends the models commonly used in empirical analyses by focusing on the impact of market expectations and behavioral factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Aristei, David & Martelli, Duccio, 2014. "Sovereign bond yield spreads and market sentiment and expectations: Empirical evidence from Euro area countries," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 55-84.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jebusi:v:76:y:2014:i:c:p:55-84
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconbus.2014.08.001
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    1. Jane Mpapalika & Christopher Malikane, 2019. "The Determinants of Sovereign Risk Premium in African Countries," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-20, February.
    2. Haddou, Samira, 2024. "Determinants of CDS in core and peripheral European countries: A comparative study during crisis and calm periods," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    3. Carlos Alberto Piscarreta Pinto Ferreira, 2021. "Does Public Debt Ownership Structure Matter for a Borrowing Country?," Working Papers REM 2021/0190, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    4. Mohd Alsaleh & A. S. Abdul-Rahim, 2019. "Financial Development and Bioenergy Consumption in the EU28 Region: Evidence from Panel Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag Bound Approach," Resources, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-13, February.
    5. Anand, Abhinav & Basu, Sankarshan & Pathak, Jalaj & Thampy, Ashok, 2021. "The impact of sentiment on emerging stock markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 161-177.
    6. Singh, Manish K. & Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2021. "Quantifying sovereign risk in the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 76-96.
    7. Cimadomo, Jacopo & Claeys, Peter & Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos, 2016. "How do experts forecast sovereign spreads?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 216-235.
    8. Mohammed A. M. Usman & Huseyin Ozdeser & Behiye Çavuşoğlu & Umar Shuaibu Aliyu, 2022. "On the Sustainable Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: Do Remittances, Human Capital Flight, and Brain Drain Matter?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-20, February.
    9. Eijffinger, Sylvester C.W. & Pieterse-Bloem, Mary, 2023. "Eurozone government bond spreads: A tale of different ECB policy regimes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    10. Jiang, Shanshan & Fan, Hong, 2018. "Credit risk contagion coupling with sentiment contagion," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 512(C), pages 186-202.
    11. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2020. "Stock market reactions to domestic sentiment: Panel CS-ARDL evidence," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    12. M'beirick, Abdallahi & Haddou, Samira, 2024. "The asymmetric response of sovereign credit default swaps spreads to risk aversion, investor sentiment and monetary policy shocks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PB), pages 244-272.
    13. Filipa Fernandes & Charalampos Stasinakis & Zivile Zekaite, 2019. "Forecasting government bond spreads with heuristic models: evidence from the Eurozone periphery," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 282(1), pages 87-118, November.
    14. Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Manish K. Singh, 2018. "“Incorporating creditors' seniority into contingent claim models:Application to peripheral euro area countries”," IREA Working Papers 201803, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Feb 2018.
    15. Nicoletta Layher & Eyden Samunderu, 2020. "The Impact of the Introduction of Uniform European Collective Action Clauses on European Government Bonds as a Regulatory Result of the European Sovereign Debt Crisis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-32, December.
    16. Li, Yulin, 2021. "Investor sentiment and sovereign bonds," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign spreads; Market sentiment; Market expectations; Dynamic heterogeneous panel models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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