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Identifying the effects of an exchange rate depreciation on country risk: Evidence from a natural experiment

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  • Bordo, Michael D.
  • Meissner, Christopher M.
  • Weidenmier, Marc D.

Abstract

A natural experiment is used to study exchange rate depreciation and perceived sovereign risk. France suspended coinage of silver in 1876 provoking a significant exogenous depreciation of all silver standard countries versus gold standard currencies like the British pound - the currency in which their debt was payable. The evidence suggests an exchange rate depreciation can significantly increase sovereign risk if a country is exposed to foreign currency debt. We implement a difference-in-differences estimator and find that the average silver country's spread on hard currency debt increased over ten percent relative to non-silver countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Bordo, Michael D. & Meissner, Christopher M. & Weidenmier, Marc D., 2009. "Identifying the effects of an exchange rate depreciation on country risk: Evidence from a natural experiment," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1022-1044, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:28:y:2009:i:6:p:1022-1044
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    Cited by:

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    2. Wang, Alan T. & Yang, Sheng-Yung & Yang, Nien-Tzu, 2013. "Information transmission between sovereign debt CDS and other financial factors – The case of Latin America," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 586-601.
    3. Bordo, Michael D. & Meissner, Christopher M., 2023. "Original sin and the great depression," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    4. Gábor Regős & Xibin Zhang, 2015. "Modeling the exchange rate using price levels and country risk," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 1056928-105, December.
    5. Iva Petrova & Mr. Michael G. Papaioannou & Mr. Dimitri Bellas, 2010. "Determinants of Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads: Fundamentals vs Financial Stress," IMF Working Papers 2010/281, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Diptes C. P. Bhimjee, 2023. "The euro area sovereign debt crisis and the sovereign debt Laffer curve: a historic assessment for 1999–2014," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-12, December.
    7. Colin Weiss, 2020. "Contractionary Devaluation Risk: Evidence from the Free Silver Movement, 1878-1900," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 705-720, October.
    8. Bajaj, Vimmy & Kumar, Pawan & Singh, Vipul Kumar, 2022. "Linkage dynamics of sovereign credit risk and financial markets: A bibliometric analysis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    9. Rockoff, Hugh & White, Eugene N., 2012. "Monetary Regimes and Policy on a Global Scale: The Oeuvre of Michael D. Bordo," MPRA Paper 49672, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2013.
    10. Fernholz, Ricardo T. & Mitchener, Kris James & Weidenmier, Marc, 2017. "Pulling up the tarnished anchor: The end of silver as a global unit of account," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 209-228.

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