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Robustness, information–processing constraints, and the current account in small open economies

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  • Luo, Yulei
  • Nie, Jun
  • Young, Eric R.

Abstract

In this paper we examine the effects of two types of “induced uncertainty”, model uncertainty due to robustness (RB) and state uncertainty due to finite information–processing capacity (called rational inattention or RI), on consumption and the current account. We show that the combination of RB and RI improves the model's predictions for (i) the contemporaneous correlation between the current account and income and (ii) the volatility and persistence of the current account in small open emerging and developed economies. In addition, we show that the two informational frictions improve the model's ability to match the impulse response of consumption to income and the relative volatility of consumption to income growth.

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  • Luo, Yulei & Nie, Jun & Young, Eric R., 2012. "Robustness, information–processing constraints, and the current account in small open economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 104-120.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:88:y:2012:i:1:p:104-120
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2012.02.004
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    Cited by:

    1. Demian Pouzo & Ignacio Presno, 2015. "Sovereign Default Risk and Uncertainty Premia," Papers 1512.06960, arXiv.org.
    2. Yulei Luo & Jun Nie & Eric Young, 2012. "Model uncertainty, state uncertainty, and state-space models," Research Working Paper RWP 12-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    3. Shibata, Akihisa & Shintani, Mototsugu & Tsuruga, Takayuki, 2019. "Current account dynamics under information rigidity and imperfect capital mobility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 153-176.
    4. Pasten, Ernesto & Schoenle, Raphael, 2016. "Rational inattention, multi-product firms and the neutrality of money," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1-16.
    5. Kvedaras, Virmantas & Garcimartín, Carlos & Astudillo, Jhonatan, 2020. "Balance-of-Payments constrained growth dynamics: An empirical investigation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 232-244.
    6. Benigno, Gianluca & Chen, Huigang & Otrok, Christopher & Rebucci, Alessandro & Young, Eric R., 2013. "Financial crises and macro-prudential policies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 453-470.
    7. Luo, Yulei, 2015. "Robustly Strategic Consumption-Portfolio Rules with Informational Frictions," MPRA Paper 64312, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Luo, Yulei & Nie, Jun & Young, Eric R., 2014. "Robust control, informational frictions, and international consumption correlations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 1-27.
    9. Luo, Yulei, 2014. "Strategic Consumption-Portfolio Rules and Precautionary Savings with Informational Frictions," MPRA Paper 58077, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Luo, Yulei & Nie, Jun & Young, Eric R., 2014. "Model uncertainty and intertemporal tax smoothing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 289-314.
    11. Yulei Luo & Eric R. Young, 2014. "Signal Extraction And Rational Inattention," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 52(2), pages 811-829, April.
    12. Bartosz Maćkowiak & Filip Matějka & Mirko Wiederholt, 2023. "Rational Inattention: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 61(1), pages 226-273, March.
    13. Luo, Yulei & Young, Eric R., 2016. "Induced uncertainty, market price of risk, and the dynamics of consumption and wealth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 1-41.
    14. Hassan Afrouzi, 2024. "Strategic Inattention, Inflation Dynamics, and the Nonneutrality of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 132(10), pages 3378-3420.
    15. Luo, Yulei & Nie, Jun & Young, Eric, 2015. "Robust Permanent Income in General Equilibrium," MPRA Paper 63985, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Guo, Zi-Yi, 2017. "International Real Business Cycle Models with Incomplete Information," EconStor Preprints 168432, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    17. Demian Pouzo & Ignacio Presno, 2016. "Sovereign Default Risk and Uncertainty Premia," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(3), pages 230-266, July.
    18. Lee, Sang Seok & Luk, Paul, 2018. "The Asian Financial Crisis and international reserve accumulation: A robust control approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 284-309.
    19. Luo, Yulei & Young, Eric, 2013. "Rational Inattention in Macroeconomics: A Survey," MPRA Paper 54267, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Robustness; Rational inattention; Consumption smoothing; Current account; Detection error probabilities;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

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