IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v60y2017icp364-379.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Searching for empirical linkages between demographic structure and economic growth

Author

Listed:
  • Wongboonsin, Kua
  • Phiromswad, Piyachart

Abstract

Demographic structure could affect economic growth through many channels. However, little is known about how demographic structure affects economic growth since no study has examined an extensive collection of channels through which demographic structure could affect economic growth in a single context. This paper overcomes this limitation by examining 45 potential mediating variables between demographic structure and economic growth. A causal search algorithm is used to identify channels through which demographic structure affects economic growth. Our results suggest that demographic structure affects economic growth differently between developed and developing countries. For developed countries, we find that an increase in the share of middle-aged workers has a positive effect on economic growth through institutions, investment and education channels. On the other hand, an increase in the share of the senior population has a negative effect on economic growth through institutions and investment channels. For developing countries, we find (but with weak evidence) that an increase in the share of young workers has a negative effect on economic growth through investment, financial market development and trade channels.

Suggested Citation

  • Wongboonsin, Kua & Phiromswad, Piyachart, 2017. "Searching for empirical linkages between demographic structure and economic growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 364-379.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:60:y:2017:i:c:p:364-379
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2016.09.023
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999316304473
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2016.09.023?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alessio Moneta, 2008. "Graphical causal models and VARs: an empirical assessment of the real business cycles hypothesis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 275-300, September.
    2. Oded Galor, 2005. "The Demographic Transition and the Emergence of Sustained Economic Growth," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(2-3), pages 494-504, 04/05.
    3. Romain Wacziarg & Karen Horn Welch, 2008. "Trade Liberalization and Growth: New Evidence," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 22(2), pages 187-231, June.
    4. Higgins, Matthew, 1998. "Demography, National Savings, and International Capital Flows," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(2), pages 343-369, May.
    5. Raouf Boucekkine & Giorgio Fabbri, 2013. "Assessing Parfit’s Repugnant Conclusion within a canonical endogenous growth set-up," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(2), pages 751-767, April.
    6. Kevin D. Hoover & Stephen J. Perez, 2004. "Truth and Robustness in Cross‐country Growth Regressions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(5), pages 765-798, December.
    7. Bloom, David E & Williamson, Jeffrey G, 1998. "Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 12(3), pages 419-455, September.
    8. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew M. Warner, 1995. "Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 5398, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Carmen Fernandez & Eduardo Ley & Mark F. J. Steel, 2001. "Model uncertainty in cross-country growth regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(5), pages 563-576.
    10. Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong-Wha, 1993. "International comparisons of educational attainment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 363-394, December.
    11. Marsiglio, Simone, 2014. "Reassessing Edgeworth’s conjecture when population dynamics is stochastic," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 130-140.
    12. Daniel Cohen & Marcelo Soto, 2007. "Growth and human capital: good data, good results," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 51-76, March.
    13. James Feyrer, 2011. "The US productivity slowdown, the baby boom, and management quality," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 24(1), pages 267-284, January.
    14. Selva Demiralp & Kevin D. Hoover & Stephen J. Perez, 2008. "A Bootstrap Method for Identifying and Evaluating a Structural Vector Autoregression," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(4), pages 509-533, August.
    15. Fougère, Maxime & Harvey, Simon & Mercenier, Jean & Mérette, Marcel, 2009. "Population ageing, time allocation and human capital: A general equilibrium analysis for Canada," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 30-39, January.
    16. Kogel, Tomas, 2005. "Youth dependency and total factor productivity," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 147-173, February.
    17. Cihak, Martin & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Feyen, Erik & Levine, Ross, 2012. "Benchmarking financial systems around the world," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6175, The World Bank.
    18. Michael Sarel, 1995. "Demographic Dynamics and the Empirics of Economic Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(2), pages 398-410, June.
    19. Ronald Lee, 2003. "The Demographic Transition: Three Centuries of Fundamental Change," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 167-190, Fall.
    20. Charles I. Jones, "undated". "Population and Ideas: A Theory of Endogenous Growth," Working Papers 98014, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
    21. Thirlwall, A P, 1972. "A Cross Section Study of Population Growth and the Growth of Output and Per Capita Income in a Production Function Framework," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 40(4), pages 339-356, December.
    22. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-963, September.
    23. Sushanta Mallick & Tomoe Moore, 2008. "Foreign Capital in a Growth Model," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(1), pages 143-159, February.
    24. P. J. Dawson & Richard Tiffin, 1998. "Is there a long-run relationship between population growth and living standards? The case of India," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(5), pages 149-156.
    25. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Wolfgang Lutz & Warren Sanderson, 2014. "Is the Demographic Dividend an Education Dividend?," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(1), pages 299-315, February.
    26. Piyachart Phiromswad, 2014. "Measuring monetary policy with empirically grounded identifying restrictions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 681-699, March.
    27. Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong Wha, 2013. "A new data set of educational attainment in the world, 1950–2010," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 184-198.
    28. Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1997. "I Just Ran Two Million Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 178-183, May.
    29. Tamura, Robert, 2006. "Human capital and economic development," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 26-72, February.
    30. Bucci, Alberto, 2008. "Population growth in a model of economic growth with human capital accumulation and horizontal R&D," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 1124-1147, September.
    31. James Feyrer, 2007. "Demographics and Productivity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(1), pages 100-109, February.
    32. Kelley, Allen C, 1988. "Economic Consequences of Population Change in the Third World," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(4), pages 1685-1728, December.
    33. Arusha Cooray & Sushanta Mallick & Nabamita Dutta, 2014. "Gender-specific Human Capital, Openness and Growth: Exploring the Linkages for South Asia," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 107-122, February.
    34. Allen Kelley & Robert Schmidt, 2005. "Evolution of recent economic-demographic modeling: A synthesis," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 18(2), pages 275-300, June.
    35. Selva Demiralp & Kevin D. Hoover, 2003. "Searching for the Causal Structure of a Vector Autoregression," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(s1), pages 745-767, December.
    36. Selva Demiralp & Kevin D. Hoover, 2003. "Searching for the Causal Structure of a Vector Autoregression," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(s1), pages 745-767, December.
    37. Xavier Sala-I-Martin & Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller, 2004. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 813-835, September.
    38. Allen Kelley & Robert Schmidt, 1995. "Aggregate population and economic growth correlations: The role of the components of demographic change," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 32(4), pages 543-555, November.
    39. Michael Kremer, 1993. "Population Growth and Technological Change: One Million B.C. to 1990," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(3), pages 681-716.
    40. Kelley, Allen C. & Schmidt, Robert M., 1995. "Aggregate Population and Economic Growth Correlations: The Role of the Components of Demographic Change," Working Papers 95-37, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    41. Selva Demiralp & Kevin Hoover & Stephen Perez, 2014. "Still puzzling: evaluating the price puzzle in an empirically identified structural vector autoregression," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 701-731, March.
    42. Sadahiro, Akira & Shimasawa, Manabu, 2003. "The computable overlapping generations model with an endogenous growth mechanism," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 1-24, January.
    43. Kristin J. Forbes, 2000. "A Reassessment of the Relationship between Inequality and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 869-887, September.
    44. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Jaypee Sevilla, 2001. "Economic Growth and the Demographic Transition," NBER Working Papers 8685, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    45. Beck , Thorsten & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Levine, Ross, 2009. "Financial institutions and markets across countries and over time - data and analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4943, The World Bank.
    46. Nazrul Islam, 1995. "Growth Empirics: A Panel Data Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(4), pages 1127-1170.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Marek Piotrowski & Anna Organiściak-Krzykowska, 2021. "Seasonal Employment of Foreigners in a Country Implementing a Restrictive Immigration Policy: The Case of Poland," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(Special 3), pages 439-453.
    2. Piyachart Phiromswad & Sabin Srivannaboon & Pattarake Sarajoti, 2022. "The interaction effects of automation and population aging on labor market," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(2), pages 1-16, February.
    3. Ady Soejoto & Hendry Cahyono & Ni'matush Solikhah, 2017. "Effect of Solow Variable to the Economic Growth in Southeast Asia," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(2), pages 277-282.
    4. Shekh Farid & Mamata Mostari, 2022. "Population transition and demographic dividend in Bangladesh: extent and policy implication," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 24(1), pages 108-126, June.
    5. Beata Gavurova & Samer Khouri & Viliam Kovac & Michaela Ferkova, 2020. "Exploration of Influence of Socioeconomic Determinants on Mortality in the European Union," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(13), pages 1-21, June.
    6. Chao Zhou & Hongling Zheng & Shenwei Wan, 2023. "Industrial Structure, Employment Structure and Economic Growth—Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-21, February.
    7. Joshua Adeyemi Ogunjimi & Dauda Olarotimi Oladipupo, 2019. "Dynamics of Demographic Structure and Economic Growth in Nigeria," Asian Journal of Economics and Empirical Research, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 6(2), pages 186-196.
    8. Joshua Adeyemi Ogunjimi & Dauda Olarotimi Oladipupo, 2019. "Dynamics of Demographic Structure and Economic Growth in Nigeria," Asian Journal of Economics and Empirical Research, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 6(2), pages 186-196.
    9. Abdullah Abdulaziz A. Bawazir & Mohamed Aslam & Ahmad Farid Bin Osman, 2020. "Demographic change and economic growth: empirical evidence from the Middle East," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 53(3), pages 429-450, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Abdullah Abdulaziz A. Bawazir & Mohamed Aslam & Ahmad Farid Bin Osman, 2020. "Demographic change and economic growth: empirical evidence from the Middle East," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 53(3), pages 429-450, August.
    2. Miguel Sánchez-Romero & Gemma Abio & Concepció Patxot & Guadalupe Souto, 2018. "Contribution of demography to economic growth," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 9(1), pages 27-64, March.
    3. Capolupo, Rosa, 2009. "The New Growth Theories and Their Empirics after Twenty Years," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 3, pages 1-72.
    4. Hajamini, Mehdi, 2015. "The non-linear effect of population growth and linear effect of age structure on per capita income: A threshold dynamic panel structural model," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 43-58.
    5. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Kotschy, Rainer & Prettner, Klaus & Schünemann, Johannes, 2024. "Health and economic growth: Reconciling the micro and macro evidence," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    6. Williamson, Jeffrey G., 2013. "Demographic Dividends Revisited," CEPR Discussion Papers 9390, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. David E. Bloom & Alex Khoury & Vadim Kufenko & Klaus Prettner, 2021. "Spurring Economic Growth through Human Development: Research Results and Guidance for Policymakers," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 47(2), pages 377-409, June.
    8. Boucekkine, R. & Martínez, B. & Ruiz-Tamarit, J.R., 2013. "Growth vs. level effect of population change on economic development: An inspection into human-capital-related mechanisms," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 312-334.
    9. Choudhry, Misbah T. & Elhorst, J. Paul, 2010. "Demographic transition and economic growth in China, India and Pakistan," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 218-236, September.
    10. Shekh Farid & Mamata Mostari, 2022. "Population transition and demographic dividend in Bangladesh: extent and policy implication," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 24(1), pages 108-126, June.
    11. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2010. "Population Aging and Economic Growth in Asia," NBER Chapters, in: The Economic Consequences of Demographic Change in East Asia, pages 61-89, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2013. "Demographic Dividends Revisited," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 30(2), pages 1-25, September.
    13. Michael S. Delgado & Daniel J. Henderson & Christopher F. Parmeter, 2014. "Does Education Matter for Economic Growth?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(3), pages 334-359, June.
    14. Prskawetz, A. & Kogel, T. & Sanderson, W.C. & Scherbov, S., 2007. "The effects of age structure on economic growth: An application of probabilistic forecasting to India," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 587-602.
    15. Piyachart Phiromswad & Takeshi Yagihashi, 2016. "Empirical identification of factor models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 621-658, September.
    16. Ilkhom SHARIPOV, 2016. "ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE EU’S EaP COUNTRIES: DETERMINANTS AND PROSPECTS," EURINT, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 3, pages 169-187.
    17. Miguel Sánchez-Romero, 2013. "The role of demography on per capita output growth and saving rates," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(4), pages 1347-1377, October.
    18. Li, Hongbin & Zhang, Jie & Zhang, Junsen, 2007. "Effects of longevity and dependency rates on saving and growth: Evidence from a panel of cross countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 138-154, September.
    19. Uddin, Gazi A. & Alam, Khorshed & Gow, Jeff, 2016. "Population age structure and savings rate impacts on economic growth: Evidence from Australia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 23-33.
    20. Durr-e-Nayab, 2008. "Demographic Dividend or Demographic Threat in Pakistan?," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 47(1), pages 1-26.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic growth; Growth regression; Demographic structure; Graph-theoretic causal search; PC algorithm;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:60:y:2017:i:c:p:364-379. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.